818 Brown Ave · Erie, PA 16502

$114,900

5 bd · 3.0 ba · 2,040 sqft · MultiFamily public records · 88 Days on market

Built 1873 3,210 sqft lot $56/sqft · at area comps Est $113k · at est.

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Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +6.9/15.0
• Livability +4.2/5.0
• Rent growth +3.2/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +1.3/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Multi-family units

County records classify this as Multi-Family (2-4 Unit). Listing-text estimate: 1 unit. estimate disagrees with records

Listing remarks MLS

Newer Roof, Updated Windows with guarantee, and a newer furnace for lower level. Spacious multi-family property offering 5 bedrooms and 3 bathrooms across approximately 2,040 square feet, providing strong potential for both owner-occupants and investors. Built in 1873, this property blends classic character with functional living space and sits on a manageable city lot. With multiple units and solid rental potential, this is a great opportunity to generate income, expand your investment portfolio, or owner occupy.

Key facts

• 3,210 sq ft lot
• Built 1873
• Listed 88 days

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 5-bed/3.0-bath multifamily listed at $115k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $3k ($35k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($5k rent vs $115k).
• Recommended offer: $108k (6.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 36.4% vs local median 5.1% in Erie — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 83/100 on livability (#109 in PA, #840 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: amenities A+, commute A+, cost of living A+; Watch: crime D+, employment F.
• Erie City SD (urban): math 12% / reading 19% proficiency, ranked #510 of 539 in PA (top 95%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 81% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Perry El Sch (math 8% / reading 17%, grade F, #1,362 of 1,518 statewide, top 92%, 462 students, 100% FRL); Northwest Pa Collegiate Academy (math 82%, 753 students, 100% FRL) — zoned schools average 100% FRL vs 81% district-wide (19 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+3.0%/yr); 56 active listings in the ZIP; 2 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; lower-income renter base — watch delinquency; 364 units permitted in Erie County in 2024 (188 in 5+ unit buildings).
• At $4,753/mo this rent would consume 148% of the median local household income ($39k/yr) (locally 1044% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $794 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $3k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Erie County population projected at -14% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $32k cash investment doubles in ~2 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 88 days — a 6% lower offer ($108k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Current owner paid $42k; list at $115k implies a 174% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1873 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.

Recommended offer $108,006 (6.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 88 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 6% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1873 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new apartment / multifamily construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply (>2% of stock underway) typically softens rents 12–24 months out; light construction supports rent growth.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 4.14% ✓
• Cap rate: 36.40%
• Cash-on-cash: 107.52%
• DSCR: 5.78
• GRM: 2.0

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $113,457
• List price: $114,900
• Delta: 1.27%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
906 W 21st St	0.06mi	4/2.0 (-1)	2,040 (0%)	8mo	$150,000	$74	82
721 W 19th St	0.11mi	6/2.0 (+1)	2,010 (-2%)	10mo	$120,000	$60	75
1114 W 20th St	0.35mi	5/2.0	1,936 (-5%)	4mo	$111,000	$57	68
2124 Liberty St	0.09mi	4/2.0 (-1)	2,260 (+11%)	3mo	$95,000	$42	66
1151 W 22nd St	0.43mi	5/2.0	2,112 (+4%)	7mo	$114,000	$54	64
821 W 23rd St	0.17mi	4/2.0 (-1)	1,832 (-10%)	5mo	$119,500	$65	62
719 W 16th St	0.28mi	6/2.0 (+1)	1,850 (-9%)	1mo	$92,000	$50	62
2916 Hazel St	0.59mi	6/2.0 (+1)	2,032 (-0%)	6mo	$121,000	$60	58
649 W 21st St	0.16mi	4/2.0 (-1)	2,308 (+13%)	6mo	$170,000	$74	57
2925 Cherry St	0.64mi	5/—	1,848 (-9%)	10mo	$135,000	$73	46
421 W 16th St	0.55mi	5/2.0	1,760 (-14%)	2mo	$79,500	$45	46
1809 Myrtle St	0.69mi	6/2.0 (+1)	1,842 (-10%)	10mo	$79,500	$43	34

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 2.97% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: —
• Equity multiple: 6.13×
• Total profit: $164,961
• Equity at exit: $17,132

10-year hold

• IRR: —
• Equity multiple: 12.81×
• Total profit: $379,961
• Equity at exit: $9,934

Cash invested: $32,172 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 62 Landlord-Friendly
• State Pennsylvania: 62 Landlord-Friendly · EVEN
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

10-day notice; Philadelphia has eviction-court diversion + some protections; otherwise moderate.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 16502

• Home prices YoY: -30.5%
• Rents YoY: 3.0%
• Active inventory: 56
• Price-to-rent: 12.1×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $4,753 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$603
• Tax from tax record: −$222 /mo · $2,661/yr
• Insurance: −$48
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$998
• Net cashflow: $2,883

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,104

Max offer price $114,900

Occupancy floor 34%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $2,948	-5% $2,915	+0% $2,883	+5% $2,850	+10% $2,818
Rent	-10% $2,507	-5% $2,695	+0% $2,883	+5% $3,070	+10% $3,258
Rate	-1.0pp $2,941	-0.5pp $2,912	base $2,883	+0.5pp $2,853	+1.0pp $2,823

6-unit breakdown (identical units grouped — click to expand)

Units	Beds	Baths	Est. rent
▸ 6× units	1	1	$4,752
Total (6 units)			$4,753

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $28,725
• Closing costs: $3,447
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 2 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
729 W 9th St Erie, PA	4.0	2.0	1782	$3,000	$1.68	45d	1	0.77mi
126 W 38th St Erie, PA	4.0	2.0	1850	$4,000	$2.16	45d	1	1.39mi

Listing history 22 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $114,900 Active 88 DOM
2. 2026-06-19
   days on market $114,900 Active 86 DOM
3. 2026-06-18
   days on market $114,900 Active 85 DOM
4. 2026-06-17
   days on market $114,900 Active 84 DOM
5. 2026-06-16
   days on market $114,900 Active 83 DOM
6. 2026-06-15
   days on market $114,900 Active 82 DOM
7. 2026-06-14
   days on market $114,900 Active 80 DOM
8. 2026-06-13
   days on market $114,900 Active 79 DOM
9. 2026-06-10
   days on market $114,900 Active 77 DOM
10. 2026-06-09
    days on market $114,900 Active 76 DOM
11. 2026-06-08
    days on market $114,900 Active 75 DOM
12. 2026-06-07
    days on market $114,900 Active 74 DOM
13. 2026-06-05
    days on market $114,900 Active 71 DOM
14. 2026-06-03
    days on market $114,900 Active 70 DOM
15. 2026-06-02
    days on market $114,900 Active 69 DOM
16. 2026-06-01
    days on market $114,900 Active 68 DOM
17. 2026-05-31
    days on market $114,900 Active 67 DOM
18. 2026-05-30
    days on market $114,900 Active 66 DOM
19. 2026-03-25
    listed $114,900 Active 520-char remark

    Show marketing remark (520 chars)

    Newer Roof, Updated Windows with guarantee, and a newer furnace for lower level. Spacious multi-family property offering 5 bedrooms and 3 bathrooms across approximately 2,040 square feet, providing strong potential for both owner-occupants and investors. Built in 1873, this property blends classic character with functional living space and sits on a manageable city lot. With multiple units and solid rental potential, this is a great opportunity to generate income, expand your investment portfolio, or owner occupy.

20. 2002-09-23
    soldstatus $42,000
21. 2002-09-23
    soldstatus $42,000
22. 1978-06-16
    soldstatus $39,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast PA · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $2,661 · $222/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,661 · $222/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 3/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥90°F today · 17 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $57,036
• − Mortgage interest: −$6,436
• − Property taxes: −$2,661
• − Insurance: −$574
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$4,563
• − Management: −$4,563
• − Depreciation: −$3,343
• Taxable income: $34,896
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$8,375
• After-tax cash flow: $26,218/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Erie City SD
• NCES district ID: 4209300
• Math proficiency: 12% ▼ -11.00%
• Reading proficiency: 19% ▼ -16.00%
• Median HH income: $33,625
• Composite: 12.59/100
• National rank: #9617
• State rank: #510 of 539 in PA

Livability — Erie

• Score: 83/100
• State rank: #109
• US rank: #840

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A+ Cost of living A+ Crime D+ Employment F Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Erie, PA
• County: Erie County · 92,215 people
• City population: 92,215
• Metro: Erie, PA
• Population (ZIP): 15,995
• Household income: $38,566
• Rent vs Own: 60.6% rent · 39.4% own
• Severe rent burden: 1044.0

Population outlook (Erie County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 272,159 people
• By 2030: 266,299 · -2.2%
• By 2040: 250,987 · -7.8%
• By 2050: 234,925 · -13.7%
• By 2075: 199,164 · -26.8%
• By 2100: 162,985 · -40.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (66%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 66% Two or more races 16% Hispanic / Latino 13% Black 11% Asian 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 5% Puerto Rican 5%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 7% Serbian 2% Italian 1%
• Foreign-born: 5% · Canada
• Languages at home: 89% English-only · Spanish 8% Other Indo-European 1% Russian/Polish/Slavic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Erie

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 49.0% · R 50.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -20.9pp toward R · 2008: 19.9pp · 2024: -1.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+1.0 2020: D+1.0 2016: R+2.0 2012: D+16.9 2008: D+19.9

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -92.73%
• Current HPI: 211.4408
• Rent YoY: ▲ 2.97%
• Metro: Erie, PA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.68%
• F500 in state: 34

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in PA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	2	$309B
▸Insurance	2	$27B
▸Telecommunications / Media	1	$124B
▸Industrial Distribution	1	$22B
▸Financial Services	1	$20B
▸Chemicals / Materials	1	$18B

Price history

+194.6% since first listed

4 events — show timeline

• 2026-03-25 Listed $114,900 GEBOR
• 2002-09-23 Sold (Public Records) $42,000 Public Records
• 2002-09-23 Sold (Public Records) $42,000 Public Records
• 1978-06-16 Sold (Public Records) $39,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+1.9%/yr

Latest (2026): $2,661 · +3.4% YoY. Source: county tax records.