1111 Archwood Dr SW #196 · Olympia, WA 98502

$89,950

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,568 sqft · Manufactured public records · 156 Days on market

Built 1985 $57/sqft · 16% above area Est $78k · 16% over

---

Why this score? — see what drove the B+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• Schools +6.2/10.0
• Livability +4.2/5.0
• Rent growth +3.3/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• ARV discount +0.3/15.0

Listing remarks

The absolute best location in the park with a beautiful new deck to enjoy it! This 3 bed/2 bath home has a huge, light & bright kitchen, new floors throughout, new kitchen countertops, & updated finishes, making it move in ready for its new owners. The large primary bedroom has its own bathroom, large closet, & sliding door to the beautiful deck that runs the length of the house. This home sits at the end of a short dead-end street up against the trees, making it quiet and peaceful with no through traffic! Friendly Ridge is a 55 & older community with all kinds of amenities--the club house has a spa, gym, tennis court, game room, & more, and the park is easy drivi

Key facts

• Updated finishes
• Huge kitchen
• New deck

Tags

• NEW DECK
• HUGE KITCHEN
• UPDATED FINISHES
• LARGE PRIMARY BEDROOM
• CLUB HOUSE AMENITIES

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $90k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $1k ($14k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $90k).
• Recommended offer: $79k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 21.8% vs local median 2.4% in Olympia — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 83/100 on livability (#58 in WA, #1,036 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: amenities A+, commute A+, health & safety A+; Watch: crime F, cost of living D-.
• Olympia School District (urban): math 66% / reading 75% proficiency, ranked #17 of 291 in WA (top 6%) — strong family-tenant draw, lease renewals of 3-5y typical.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+3.2%/yr); 304 active listings in the ZIP; 10 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 14d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 1,222 units permitted in Thurston County in 2024 (508 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $10k of equity ($622 loan paydown + $9k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Thurston County population projected at +27% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (10.0% appreciation + 3.2% rent growth), your $25k cash investment doubles in ~2 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 4, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$34k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 156 days — a 12% lower offer ($79k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 3 sale attempts since 25y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $9k (9%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $10k; list at $90k implies a 800% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Recommended offer $79,156 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 156 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
5. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 2.50% ✓
• Cap rate: 21.82%
• Cash-on-cash: 55.45%
• DSCR: 3.47
• GRM: 3.3

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $77,565
• List price: $89,950
• Delta: 15.97%
• Verdict: OVERPRICED
• Comps: 10 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
1111 Archwood Dr SW #306	0.22mi	3/2.0	1,568 (0%)	4mo	$75,000	$48	86
1111 Archwood Dr SW #202	0.07mi	3/2.0	1,568 (0%)	14mo	$110,000	$70	85
1111 Archwood Dr SW #429	0.08mi	3/2.0	1,528 (-3%)	10mo	$75,000	$49	83
1111 Archwood Dr SW #213	0.19mi	3/2.0	1,568 (0%)	14mo	$150,000	$96	80
1111 Archwood Dr SW #204	0.09mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,440 (-8%)	7mo	$95,000	$66	72
1111 Archwood Dr SW #418	0.09mi	3/2.0	1,344 (-14%)	2mo	$22,000	$16	71
1111 Archwood Dr SW #285	0.22mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,431 (-9%)	1mo	$105,000	$73	70
1111 Archwood Dr SW #200	0.05mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,344 (-14%)	1mo	$60,000	$45	68
1111 Archwood Dr SW #327	0.23mi	3/2.0	1,404 (-10%)	8mo	$215,000	$153	65
1111 Archwood Dr SW #226	0.06mi	3/2.0	1,792 (+14%)	16mo	$130,000	$73	60
1111 Archwood Dr SW #242	0.15mi	3/2.0	1,372 (-12%)	16mo	$145,950	$106	59
1111 Archwood Dr SW #374	0.22mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,344 (-14%)	16mo	$64,500	$48	47

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 3.16% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 68.4%
• Equity multiple: 5.90×
• Total profit: $123,499
• Equity at exit: $81,034

10-year hold

• IRR: 62.1%
• Equity multiple: 13.16×
• Total profit: $306,195
• Equity at exit: $174,753

Cash invested: $25,186 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 28 Tenant-Leaning
• State Washington: 28 Tenant-Leaning · D+8
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Just-cause statewide (2021); Seattle layers rent control restrictions + relocation assistance; very tenant-friendly.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 98502

• Home prices YoY: 1.8%
• Rents YoY: 3.2%
• Active inventory: 304
• Price-to-rent: 3.3×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,249 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$472
• Tax from tax record: −$104 /mo · $1,245/yr
• Insurance: −$37
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$472
• Net cashflow: $1,164

Break-even live

Break-even rent $776

Max offer price $89,950

Occupancy floor 43%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $22,488
• Closing costs: $2,698
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 10 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
800 Yauger Way SW Olympia, WA	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	1034	$2,131	$2.06	13d	13	0.27mi
1900 Black Lake Blvd SW Olympia, WA	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	925	$2,137	$2.31	13d	13	0.60mi
4611 Greenwood Dr SW Olympia, WA	3.0	3.0	1448	$2,495	$1.72	43d	1	0.87mi
2010 8th Ct SW Olympia, WA	2.0	2.0	1072	$2,295	$2.14	20d	1	0.91mi
300 Kenyon St NW Olympia, WA	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	878	$1,995	$2.27	13d	6	0.97mi
5004 4th Way SW Olympia, WA	2.0–3.0	2.0–2.5	1271	$2,645	$2.08	13d	5	1.26mi
2137 Conger Ave NW Unit C Olympia, WA	3.0	2.0	1248	$1,895	$1.52	43d	1	1.27mi
2137 Conger Ave NW Unit A Olympia, WA	3.0	2.0	1248	$1,995	$1.60	43d	1	1.27mi
1415 Evergreen Park Dr SW Olympia, WA	2.0	2.0	1050	$1,735	$1.65	13d	1	1.36mi
1626 Madison Ave NW Olympia, WA	2.0	2.0	1064	$2,100	$1.97	13d	1	1.41mi

Listing history 24 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $89,950 Active 156 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $89,950 Active 155 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $89,950 Active 154 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $89,950 Active 153 DOM
5. 2026-06-14
   days on market $89,950 Active 151 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $89,950 Active 150 DOM
7. 2026-06-10
   days on market $89,950 Active 148 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $89,950 Active 147 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $89,950 Active 146 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $89,950 Active 145 DOM
11. 2026-06-05
    days on market $89,950 Active 142 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $89,950 Active 140 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $89,950 Active 139 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $89,950 Active 138 DOM
15. 2026-05-30
    days on market $89,950 Active 137 DOM
16. 2026-02-16
    price $89,950
17. 2026-01-13
    listed $98,900 Active
18. 2014-12-16
    historical
19. 2014-12-10
    soldstatus $10,000 Sold
20. 2014-11-24
    status Pending
21. 2014-11-24
    status Pending Inspection
22. 2014-10-20
    listed $14,995 Active
23. 2001-12-04
    soldstatus $38,000
24. 2001-09-26
    listed $39,500

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast WA · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,245 · $104/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,245 · $104/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 3/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥88°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 6/10 Major 7 unhealthy d/yr today · 8 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $26,987
• − Mortgage interest: −$5,039
• − Property taxes: −$1,245
• − Insurance: −$450
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,159
• − Management: −$2,159
• − Depreciation: −$2,617
• Taxable income: $13,319
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$3,197
• After-tax cash flow: $10,768/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Olympia School District
• NCES district ID: 5306180
• Math proficiency: 66% ▼ -2.00%
• Reading proficiency: 75% ▼ -2.00%
• Median HH income: $63,852
• Composite: 62.27/100
• National rank: #1438
• State rank: #17 of 291 in WA

Livability — Olympia

• Score: 83/100
• State rank: #58
• US rank: #1036

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A+ Cost of living D- Crime F Employment B- Housing A Health & safety A+ User ratings B

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Olympia, WA
• County: Thurston County · 269,345 people
• City population: 98,428
• Metro: Olympia-Lacey-Tumwater, WA
• Population (ZIP): 35,398
• Household income: $92,207
• Rent vs Own: 42.6% rent · 57.4% own
• Severe rent burden: 1811.0

Population outlook (Thurston County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 308,239 people
• By 2030: 326,483 · +5.9%
• By 2040: 359,890 · +16.8%
• By 2050: 391,800 · +27.1%
• By 2075: 468,024 · +51.8%
• By 2100: 519,890 · +68.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (71%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 71% Two or more races 13% Hispanic / Latino 11% Asian 6% Black 3% Native American 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 3% Puerto Rican 4%
• Common ancestry: Italian 5% Portuguese 4% Iranian 3%
• Foreign-born: 8% · Vietnam, Canada, China
• Languages at home: 90% English-only · Spanish 3% Vietnamese 2% Other Asian/Pacific 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Thurston

• 2024 margin: Strong D (+20.4) · D 58.5% · R 38.1% · Other 3.5%
• 2008→2024 swing: -1.3pp toward R · 2008: 21.7pp · 2024: 20.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+20.4 2020: D+18.6 2016: D+15.4 2012: D+19.0 2008: D+21.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 18.49%
• Current HPI: 1056.49
• Rent YoY: ▲ 3.16%
• Metro: Olympia-Lacey-Tumwater, WA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 4.65%
• F500 in state: 22

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in WA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Retail	2	$269B
▸Technology / Retail	1	$638B
▸Technology	1	$245B
▸Telecommunications	1	$38B
▸Food / Beverage	1	$36B
▸Automotive / Trucks	1	$34B

Price history

+127.7% since first listed

9 events — show timeline

• 2026-02-16 Price Changed $89,950 NWMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-01-13 Listed $98,900 NWMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2014-12-16 Delisted — NWMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2014-12-10 Sold (MLS) $10,000 NWMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2014-11-24 Pending — NWMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2014-11-24 Pending — NWMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2014-10-20 Listed $14,995 NWMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2001-12-04 Sold (MLS) $38,000 NWMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2001-09-26 Listed $39,500 NWMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid

Property tax history

+9.5%/yr

Latest (2026): $1,245 · +15.2% YoY. Source: county tax records.