6340 Arbor Ln · Midway, FL 32563

$329,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,298 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 21 Days on market

Built 2018 8,276 sqft lot Est $310k · 6% over

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Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +12.5/30.0
• Schools +5.3/10.0
• ARV discount +4.8/15.0
• DSCR +3.7/10.0
• Rent growth +3.7/5.0
• 1% rule +2.6/10.0
• Livability +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

**Open House this Sunday March 29th from 1-3** Welcome to 6340 Arbor Lane in Gulf Breeze. This charming 3-bedroom, 2-bath home offers 1,318 square feet of well-planned living space with a layout that truly lives larger than its size. At the heart of the home, the open living, dining, and kitchen areas come together in a bright, easy-flow design that feels both comfortable and connected. Ideal for everyday living or hosting friends and family. The split floor plan adds a level of privacy, with the primary suite set apart and featuring a walk-in closet and private bath, while two additional bedrooms and a full bath are positioned on the opposite side of the home. Thoughtful touches like a dedicated laundry room, pantry storage, and interior utility space make daily life feel organized and effortless. Out back, a screened porch offers a perfect spot to unwind, overlooking a fully fenced yard with room to enjoy, entertain, or let pets play. A covered front entry and attached garage complete the home’s inviting curb appeal and functionality. Clean, well-maintained, and move-in ready, this Gulf Breeze home is a great opportunity to step into comfort, convenience, and a location close to schools, shopping, and the beautiful Gulf Coast beaches. Schedule your private showing today!

Key facts

• 8,276 sq ft lot
• 2 garage spots
• Built 2018

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $329k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-50 ($-594/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $320k (2.7% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $251k (23.7% below list).
• Recommended offer: $251k (23.7% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 6.1% vs local median 4.1% in Midway — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads: area grade D — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• Santa Rosa (suburban): math 63% / reading 60% proficiency, ranked #8 of 73 in FL (top 11%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: West Navarre Primary School (723 students, 39% FRL); Woodlawn Beach Middle School (math 68% / reading 60%, grade B+, #105 of 571 statewide, top 19%, 948 students, 34% FRL); Navarre High School (math 49% / reading 58%, grade C-, #146 of 667 statewide, top 22%, 2,406 students, 30% FRL) — zoned schools at 34% FRL track the district average.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+4.6%/yr); 455 active listings in the ZIP; 4 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 25d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 1,983 units permitted in Santa Rosa County in 2024 (128 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 30% of the median local income ($100k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $10k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Santa Rosa County population projected at +31% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 21 days — a 2% lower offer ($324k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 3 sale attempts since 8y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $214k; list at $329k implies a 54% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→23/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $250,990 (23.7% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.76% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.11%
• Cash-on-cash: -0.65%
• DSCR: 0.97
• GRM: 10.9

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $310,222
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
6340 Arbor Ln	0.00mi	3/2.0	1,318 (+2%)	1mo	$315,000	$239	97
2392 Spur Ln	0.10mi	3/2.0	1,309 (+1%)	7mo	$329,500	$252	88
2498 Privet Berry Dr	0.33mi	3/2.0	1,252 (-4%)	7mo	$312,900	$250	73
2452 Spur Ln	0.13mi	3/2.0	1,475 (+14%)	1mo	$350,000	$237	70
6307 Red Pepper Dr	0.17mi	3/2.0	1,475 (+14%)	4mo	$350,000	$237	66
6318 Red Pepper Dr	0.14mi	3/2.0	1,473 (+14%)	6mo	$353,900	$240	66
6545 Fern St	0.57mi	3/2.0	1,367 (+5%)	2mo	$320,000	$234	63
2494 Privet Berry Dr	0.33mi	3/2.0	1,473 (+14%)	4mo	$322,577	$219	59
2485 Privet Berry Dr	0.35mi	3/2.0	1,473 (+14%)	3mo	$313,900	$213	58
2477 Privet Berry Dr	0.35mi	3/2.0	1,473 (+14%)	8mo	$364,984	$248	55
2482 Privet Berry Dr	0.32mi	3/2.0	1,473 (+14%)	10mo	$387,000	$263	55
6138 Redberry Dr	0.58mi	3/2.0	1,473 (+14%)	7mo	$349,900	$238	44

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 4.6% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -15.8%
• Equity multiple: 0.43×
• Total profit: $-52,473
• Equity at exit: $49,055

10-year hold

• IRR: -5.1%
• Equity multiple: 0.64×
• Total profit: $-32,800
• Equity at exit: $28,446

Cash invested: $92,120 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 32563

• Rents YoY: 4.6%
• Active inventory: 455
• Price-to-rent: 10.9×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,510 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,725
• Tax from tax record: −$170 /mo · $2,040/yr
• Insurance: −$137
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$527
• Net cashflow: $-50

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,573

Max offer price $320,249

Occupancy floor 97%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $137	-5% $44	+0% $-50	+5% $-143	+10% $-236
Rent	-10% $-248	-5% $-149	+0% $-50	+5% $50	+10% $149
Rate	-1.0pp $116	-0.5pp $34	base $-50	+0.5pp $-135	+1.0pp $-222

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $82,250
• Closing costs: $9,870
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 4 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
2426 Houston Cir Gulf Breeze, FL	3.0	2.0	1474	$2,500	$1.70	25d	1	0.40mi
6539 Forest Bay Ave Gulf Breeze, FL	4.0	2.0	1786	$2,850	$1.60	15d	1	0.42mi
6622 Perch St Navarre, FL	3.0	2.0	1563	$2,100	$1.34	25d	1	1.34mi
1827 Sundown Dr Navarre, FL	3.0	2.0	1556	$2,000	$1.29	25d	1	1.49mi

Listing history 6 events

1. 2026-04-16
   status Pending

   Show marketing remark (1305 chars)

   **Open House this Sunday March 29th from 1-3** Welcome to 6340 Arbor Lane in Gulf Breeze. This charming 3-bedroom, 2-bath home offers 1,318 square feet of well-planned living space with a layout that truly lives larger than its size. At the heart of the home, the open living, dining, and kitchen areas come together in a bright, easy-flow design that feels both comfortable and connected. Ideal for everyday living or hosting friends and family. The split floor plan adds a level of privacy, with the primary suite set apart and featuring a walk-in closet and private bath, while two additional bedrooms and a full bath are positioned on the opposite side of the home. Thoughtful touches like a dedicated laundry room, pantry storage, and interior utility space make daily life feel organized and effortless. Out back, a screened porch offers a perfect spot to unwind, overlooking a fully fenced yard with room to enjoy, entertain, or let pets play. A covered front entry and attached garage complete the home’s inviting curb appeal and functionality. Clean, well-maintained, and move-in ready, this Gulf Breeze home is a great opportunity to step into comfort, convenience, and a location close to schools, shopping, and the beautiful Gulf Coast beaches. Schedule your private showing today!

2. 2026-04-16
   historical Contingent 1305-char remark

   Show marketing remark (1305 chars)

   **Open House this Sunday March 29th from 1-3** Welcome to 6340 Arbor Lane in Gulf Breeze. This charming 3-bedroom, 2-bath home offers 1,318 square feet of well-planned living space with a layout that truly lives larger than its size. At the heart of the home, the open living, dining, and kitchen areas come together in a bright, easy-flow design that feels both comfortable and connected. Ideal for everyday living or hosting friends and family. The split floor plan adds a level of privacy, with the primary suite set apart and featuring a walk-in closet and private bath, while two additional bedrooms and a full bath are positioned on the opposite side of the home. Thoughtful touches like a dedicated laundry room, pantry storage, and interior utility space make daily life feel organized and effortless. Out back, a screened porch offers a perfect spot to unwind, overlooking a fully fenced yard with room to enjoy, entertain, or let pets play. A covered front entry and attached garage complete the home’s inviting curb appeal and functionality. Clean, well-maintained, and move-in ready, this Gulf Breeze home is a great opportunity to step into comfort, convenience, and a location close to schools, shopping, and the beautiful Gulf Coast beaches. Schedule your private showing today!

3. 2026-03-26
   listed $329,000 Active

   Show marketing remark (1305 chars)

   **Open House this Sunday March 29th from 1-3** Welcome to 6340 Arbor Lane in Gulf Breeze. This charming 3-bedroom, 2-bath home offers 1,318 square feet of well-planned living space with a layout that truly lives larger than its size. At the heart of the home, the open living, dining, and kitchen areas come together in a bright, easy-flow design that feels both comfortable and connected. Ideal for everyday living or hosting friends and family. The split floor plan adds a level of privacy, with the primary suite set apart and featuring a walk-in closet and private bath, while two additional bedrooms and a full bath are positioned on the opposite side of the home. Thoughtful touches like a dedicated laundry room, pantry storage, and interior utility space make daily life feel organized and effortless. Out back, a screened porch offers a perfect spot to unwind, overlooking a fully fenced yard with room to enjoy, entertain, or let pets play. A covered front entry and attached garage complete the home’s inviting curb appeal and functionality. Clean, well-maintained, and move-in ready, this Gulf Breeze home is a great opportunity to step into comfort, convenience, and a location close to schools, shopping, and the beautiful Gulf Coast beaches. Schedule your private showing today!

4. 2026-03-26
   listed $329,000 Active 1305-char remark

   Show marketing remark (1305 chars)

   **Open House this Sunday March 29th from 1-3** Welcome to 6340 Arbor Lane in Gulf Breeze. This charming 3-bedroom, 2-bath home offers 1,318 square feet of well-planned living space with a layout that truly lives larger than its size. At the heart of the home, the open living, dining, and kitchen areas come together in a bright, easy-flow design that feels both comfortable and connected. Ideal for everyday living or hosting friends and family. The split floor plan adds a level of privacy, with the primary suite set apart and featuring a walk-in closet and private bath, while two additional bedrooms and a full bath are positioned on the opposite side of the home. Thoughtful touches like a dedicated laundry room, pantry storage, and interior utility space make daily life feel organized and effortless. Out back, a screened porch offers a perfect spot to unwind, overlooking a fully fenced yard with room to enjoy, entertain, or let pets play. A covered front entry and attached garage complete the home’s inviting curb appeal and functionality. Clean, well-maintained, and move-in ready, this Gulf Breeze home is a great opportunity to step into comfort, convenience, and a location close to schools, shopping, and the beautiful Gulf Coast beaches. Schedule your private showing today!

5. 2018-08-01
   soldstatus $213,650 776-char remark

   Show marketing remark (776 chars)

   Heather's Place is the newest master plan community offered by Henry Homes. This beautiful cottage style, ranch home community features sodded front and back yards, sidewalks, Underground utilities, public water and sewer, only 8.5 miles to Navarre beach and convenient access to shopping and schools. Every home comes included with Granite counter tops throughout, stainless steel appliances in the kitchen, upgraded flooring in the common and wet areas and carpet in the bedrooms, upgraded recessed lights, separate tile showers in the master bathroom (on most plans) and covered back porches. These homes are extremely energy efficient. All come included with our 1-year builder warranty. Take advantage of our $500 move in special with use of one of our preferred lenders!

6. 2018-05-20
   listed $213,650 776-char remark

   Show marketing remark (776 chars)

   Heather's Place is the newest master plan community offered by Henry Homes. This beautiful cottage style, ranch home community features sodded front and back yards, sidewalks, Underground utilities, public water and sewer, only 8.5 miles to Navarre beach and convenient access to shopping and schools. Every home comes included with Granite counter tops throughout, stainless steel appliances in the kitchen, upgraded flooring in the common and wet areas and carpet in the bedrooms, upgraded recessed lights, separate tile showers in the master bathroom (on most plans) and covered back porches. These homes are extremely energy efficient. All come included with our 1-year builder warranty. Take advantage of our $500 move in special with use of one of our preferred lenders!

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast FL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $2,040 · $170/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,731 · $228/mo
• Expected delta: +$691/yr (+$58/mo · 33.9%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 6/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 10/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥105°F today · 23 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $30,119
• − Mortgage interest: −$18,429
• − Property taxes: −$2,040
• − Insurance: −$1,645
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,410
• − Management: −$2,410
• − Depreciation: −$9,571
• Taxable loss: −$6,385
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,532
• After-tax cash flow: $938/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Santa Rosa
• NCES district ID: 1201650
• Math proficiency: 63% ▼ -6.00%
• Reading proficiency: 60% ▼ -5.00%
• Median HH income: $58,161
• Composite: 53.12/100
• National rank: #1511
• State rank: #8 of 73 in FL

Livability — Midway

No livability data for this city. (Only ~50 U.S. cities are tracked.)

Census & demographics

• Census place: Midway, FL
• County: Santa Rosa County · 194,764 people
• Metro: Pensacola-Ferry Pass-Brent, FL
• Population (ZIP): 30,364
• Household income: $100,396
• Rent vs Own: 18.4% rent · 81.6% own
• Severe rent burden: 397.0

Population outlook (Santa Rosa County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 195,978 people
• By 2030: 209,782 · +7.0%
• By 2040: 235,293 · +20.1%
• By 2050: 256,408 · +30.8%
• By 2075: 298,074 · +52.1%
• By 2100: 303,216 · +54.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (87%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 87% Two or more races 6% Hispanic / Latino 6% Black 2% Asian 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 2%
• Common ancestry: Italian 5% Slovak 3% Romanian 3%
• Foreign-born: 4% · Canada
• Languages at home: 94% English-only · Spanish 3% German/W. Germanic 1% Chinese 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Santa Rosa

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+51.0) · D 24.1% · R 75.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -3.0pp toward R · 2008: -47.9pp · 2024: -51.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+51.0 2020: R+46.5 2016: R+53.5 2012: R+52.6 2008: R+47.9

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -229.78%
• Current HPI: 278.9852
• Rent YoY: ▲ 4.60%
• Metro: Pensacola-Ferry Pass-Brent, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

+54.0% since first listed

6 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-16 Pending — NAMLS
• 2026-04-16 Contingent — PARMLS
• 2026-03-26 Listed $329,000 PARMLS
• 2026-03-26 Listed $329,000 NAMLS
• 2018-08-01 Sold (MLS) $213,650 NAMLS
• 2018-05-20 Listed $213,650 NAMLS

Property tax history

+26.4%/yr

Latest (2025): $2,040 · +6.7% YoY. Source: county tax records.