14500 NE 188th Pl · Lake Kerr, FL 32134

$89,900

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 712 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 104 Days on market

Built 1992 0.25 ac lot $126/sqft · 64% above area

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Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• 1% rule +9.9/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +3.6/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Livability +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Located in Hog valley area. .. land with more trees than people. This area is known for its quiet country living lifestyle and great location to fishing, hunting, off road trails and more. Used previously as weekend and vacation family compound for hunting and fishing trips. Originally built in 1992 this home includes 3 bedrooms, 1.5 baths with 712 living square feet and located on fenced . 25 acre lot. Located 20 minutes from downtown Fort McCoy with a grocery store, doctor's office, pharmacy, hardware, gas station, pizza, and more. Short drive to Silver Springs which includes Walmart, Lowes, Bealls, Outback and many more of your favorite shopping spots and restaurants. Ocala is only another 10 minutes from Silver Springs with vibrant night life and lots of entertainment options and restaurants. Gainesville(Home of Florida Gators) is only 50 minutes to downtown. If you’re a fisherman, or hunter or simply love hiking, canoeing or kayaking you are in luck! Minutes to Ocklawaha River, Ocala National Forest, and many natural springs(Salt Springs, Silver Glen Springs, Juniper Springs), horseback and walking trails, and off-road vehicle trails await your explorations. One-of-a-kind property and location! Ready for new owners!

Key facts

• Quiet country living
• Ocklawaha river
• Natural springs

Tags

• QUIET COUNTRY LIVING
• FENCED LOT
• OCKLAWAHA RIVER
• OCALA NATIONAL FOREST
• NATURAL SPRINGS
• HORSEBACK AND WALKING TRAILS

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $90k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $452 ($5k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $90k).
• Recommended offer: $82k (9.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 12.3% vs local median 5.8% in Lake Kerr — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads: area grade B — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• Marion (rural): math 42% / reading 43% proficiency, ranked #61 of 73 in FL (top 84%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 61% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: 299 active listings in the ZIP; 7,071 units permitted in Marion County in 2024 (534 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $622 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $3k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Marion County population projected at +13% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $25k cash investment doubles in ~6 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 104 days — a 9% lower offer ($82k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 3 sale attempts since 16y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $5k; list at $90k implies a 1698% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→21/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $81,809 (9.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 104 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 9% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.49% ✓
• Cap rate: 12.32%
• Cash-on-cash: 21.53%
• DSCR: 1.96
• GRM: 5.6

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $54,752
• List price: $89,900
• Delta: 64.20%
• Verdict: OVERPRICED
• Comps: 1 within 2.0 mi

Show comp detail 1 sale within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
14326 NE 189th Pl	0.27mi	1/1.0 (-1)	800 (+12%)	8mo	$40,000	$50	55

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 14.1%
• Equity multiple: 1.56×
• Total profit: $14,214
• Equity at exit: $13,404

10-year hold

• IRR: 22.9%
• Equity multiple: 2.97×
• Total profit: $49,474
• Equity at exit: $7,773

Cash invested: $25,172 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 32134

• Home prices YoY: -24.4%
• Active inventory: 299
• Price-to-rent: 5.6×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,343 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$471
• Tax from tax record: −$101 /mo · $1,207/yr
• Insurance: −$37
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$282
• Net cashflow: $452

Break-even live

Break-even rent $771

Max offer price $89,900

Occupancy floor 61%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $503	-5% $477	+0% $452	+5% $426	+10% $401
Rent	-10% $346	-5% $399	+0% $452	+5% $505	+10% $558
Rate	-1.0pp $497	-0.5pp $475	base $452	+0.5pp $428	+1.0pp $405

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $22,475
• Closing costs: $2,697
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 22 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $89,900 Active 104 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $89,900 Active 103 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $89,900 Active 102 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $89,900 Active 101 DOM
5. 2026-06-14
   days on market $89,900 Active 99 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $89,900 Active 98 DOM
7. 2026-06-10
   days on market $89,900 Active 96 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $89,900 Active 95 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $89,900 Active 94 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $89,900 Active 93 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $89,900 Active 89 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $89,900 Active 88 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $89,900 Active 87 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $89,900 Active 86 DOM
15. 2026-05-30
    days on market $89,900 Active 85 DOM
16. 2026-03-25
    status Active 1246-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1246 chars)

    Located in Hog valley area. .. land with more trees than people. This area is known for its quiet country living lifestyle and great location to fishing, hunting, off road trails and more. Used previously as weekend and vacation family compound for hunting and fishing trips. Originally built in 1992 this home includes 3 bedrooms, 1.5 baths with 712 living square feet and located on fenced . 25 acre lot. Located 20 minutes from downtown Fort McCoy with a grocery store, doctor's office, pharmacy, hardware, gas station, pizza, and more. Short drive to Silver Springs which includes Walmart, Lowes, Bealls, Outback and many more of your favorite shopping spots and restaurants. Ocala is only another 10 minutes from Silver Springs with vibrant night life and lots of entertainment options and restaurants. Gainesville(Home of Florida Gators) is only 50 minutes to downtown. If you’re a fisherman, or hunter or simply love hiking, canoeing or kayaking you are in luck! Minutes to Ocklawaha River, Ocala National Forest, and many natural springs(Salt Springs, Silver Glen Springs, Juniper Springs), horseback and walking trails, and off-road vehicle trails await your explorations. One-of-a-kind property and location! Ready for new owners!

17. 2026-03-09
    status Pending 1246-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1246 chars)

    Located in Hog valley area. .. land with more trees than people. This area is known for its quiet country living lifestyle and great location to fishing, hunting, off road trails and more. Used previously as weekend and vacation family compound for hunting and fishing trips. Originally built in 1992 this home includes 3 bedrooms, 1.5 baths with 712 living square feet and located on fenced . 25 acre lot. Located 20 minutes from downtown Fort McCoy with a grocery store, doctor's office, pharmacy, hardware, gas station, pizza, and more. Short drive to Silver Springs which includes Walmart, Lowes, Bealls, Outback and many more of your favorite shopping spots and restaurants. Ocala is only another 10 minutes from Silver Springs with vibrant night life and lots of entertainment options and restaurants. Gainesville(Home of Florida Gators) is only 50 minutes to downtown. If you’re a fisherman, or hunter or simply love hiking, canoeing or kayaking you are in luck! Minutes to Ocklawaha River, Ocala National Forest, and many natural springs(Salt Springs, Silver Glen Springs, Juniper Springs), horseback and walking trails, and off-road vehicle trails await your explorations. One-of-a-kind property and location! Ready for new owners!

18. 2026-02-18
    listed $89,900 Active 1246-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1246 chars)

    Located in Hog valley area. .. land with more trees than people. This area is known for its quiet country living lifestyle and great location to fishing, hunting, off road trails and more. Used previously as weekend and vacation family compound for hunting and fishing trips. Originally built in 1992 this home includes 3 bedrooms, 1.5 baths with 712 living square feet and located on fenced . 25 acre lot. Located 20 minutes from downtown Fort McCoy with a grocery store, doctor's office, pharmacy, hardware, gas station, pizza, and more. Short drive to Silver Springs which includes Walmart, Lowes, Bealls, Outback and many more of your favorite shopping spots and restaurants. Ocala is only another 10 minutes from Silver Springs with vibrant night life and lots of entertainment options and restaurants. Gainesville(Home of Florida Gators) is only 50 minutes to downtown. If you’re a fisherman, or hunter or simply love hiking, canoeing or kayaking you are in luck! Minutes to Ocklawaha River, Ocala National Forest, and many natural springs(Salt Springs, Silver Glen Springs, Juniper Springs), horseback and walking trails, and off-road vehicle trails await your explorations. One-of-a-kind property and location! Ready for new owners!

19. 2010-12-31
    historical
20. 2010-06-05
    listed $42,000
21. 1990-07-01
    soldstatus $5,000
22. 1988-08-01
    soldstatus $5,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast FL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,207 · $101/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,207 · $101/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 7/10 Severe
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥109°F today · 21 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 3 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $16,119
• − Mortgage interest: −$5,036
• − Property taxes: −$1,207
• − Insurance: −$450
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,290
• − Management: −$1,290
• − Depreciation: −$2,615
• Taxable income: $4,233
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,016
• After-tax cash flow: $4,405/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Marion
• NCES district ID: 1201260
• Math proficiency: 42% ▼ -7.00%
• Reading proficiency: 43% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $40,015
• Composite: 35.61/100
• National rank: #4890
• State rank: #61 of 73 in FL

Livability — Lake Kerr

No livability data for this city. (Only ~50 U.S. cities are tracked.)

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 7,400

Population outlook (Marion County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 365,905 people
• By 2030: 376,768 · +3.0%
• By 2040: 396,555 · +8.4%
• By 2050: 412,723 · +12.8%
• By 2075: 446,090 · +21.9%
• By 2100: 436,193 · +19.2%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (91%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 91% Hispanic / Latino 5% Two or more races 4%
• Common ancestry: Italian 3% Slovak 2% Lithuanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 3% · Canada
• Languages at home: 95% English-only · Spanish 3% French/Haitian/Cajun 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Marion

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+31.6) · D 33.8% · R 65.5%
• 2008→2024 swing: -20.0pp toward R · 2008: -11.6pp · 2024: -31.6pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+31.6 2020: R+25.9 2016: R+26.2 2012: R+16.2 2008: R+11.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -72.45%
• Current HPI: 224.9549
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

+1698.0% since first listed

7 events — show timeline

• 2026-03-25 Relisted — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-03-09 Pending — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-02-18 Listed $89,900 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2010-12-31 Listing Removed — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2010-06-05 Listed $42,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 1990-07-01 Sold (Public Records) $5,000 Public Records
• 1988-08-01 Sold (Public Records) $5,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+7.0%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,207 · +32.7% YoY. Source: county tax records.