12971 Labradors Run · Foley, AL 36535

$235,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,355 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 23 Days on market

Built 2001 0.33 ac lot $173/sqft · 7% below area Est $254k · 7% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the C- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +18.2/30.0
• ARV discount +10.9/15.0
• DSCR +5.7/10.0
• 1% rule +3.9/10.0
• Schools +3.9/10.0
• Livability +3.1/5.0
• Rent growth +3.0/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

This home is in a very good location in Quail Valley subdivision with a large fenced back yard. The home has been professionally painted and the kitchen and living room area is all nice tile. All bedrooms have new laminate wood-look flooring. The A/C is new and installed Spring 2016. The large living room has a vaulted ceiling. The master bath has two separate closets and two separate sinks. This is a great neighborhood which is very convenient to Magnolia Elementary School. This is a very nice, upgraded home.

Key facts

• Double garage
• Split floor plan
• Tile flooring

Tags

• TILE FLOORING
• LUXURY VINYL PLANK FLOORING
• SPLIT FLOOR PLAN
• DOUBLE GARAGE
• SCREENED-IN BACK PATIO

Property features AI

Finance

• HOA & community: No community features reported; No transfer fees

Exterior

• Parking: Double covered garage with automatic garage door
• Utilities: Riviera Utilities; Baldwin County sewer service; Electric provided by Baldwin EMC
• Home design: Single-story home
• Construction: Brick, vinyl siding, and wood frame construction; Metal roof; Slab foundation; Built as resale property
• Exterior features: Covered patio/porch; Less than 1 acre lot; No waterfront

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Microwave; Electric range; Refrigerator
• Bedrooms: Primary bedroom with attached bath; Primary bedroom includes walk-in closet(s)
• Flooring: Tile flooring
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms; Primary bathroom with tub/shower combo
• Heating & cooling: Heat pump heating and cooling
• Interior features: Ceiling fans; Split bedroom plan; Vaulted ceilings; Dining/kitchen combo

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $235k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $211 ($3k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $209k (11.2% below list).
• Recommended offer: $209k (11.2% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 7.4% vs local median 4.0% in Foley — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 61/100 on livability (#241 in AL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: housing A+, cost of living A-, crime B; Watch: employment D+, amenities F, commute F.
• Baldwin County (rural): math 33% / reading 57% proficiency, ranked #18 of 129 in AL (top 14%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Magnolia School (math 22% / reading 46%, grade F, #311 of 627 statewide, top 50%, 894 students, 76% FRL); Foley Middle School (math 11% / reading 36%, grade F, #172 of 257 statewide, top 68%, 783 students, 82% FRL); Foley High School (math 24% / reading 25%, grade F, #118 of 305 statewide, top 45%, 1,578 students, 75% FRL) — zoned schools average 78% FRL vs 38% district-wide (40 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 27% at this address vs 45% district-wide (-18 pts) — the specific schools serving this property underperform the Baldwin County average; the district grade overstates school quality for this exact location.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+1.8%/yr); 883 active listings in the ZIP; 2 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 3,883 units permitted in Baldwin County in 2024 (481 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 38% of the median local income ($67k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $7k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Baldwin County population projected at +42% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 23 days — a 2% lower offer ($231k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 3 sale attempts since 9y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→25/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $208,735 (11.2% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
2. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
3. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
4. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
5. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.89% ✗
• Cap rate: 7.37%
• Cash-on-cash: 3.85%
• DSCR: 1.17
• GRM: 9.4

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $254,037
• List price: $235,000
• Delta: -7.49%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
12971 Labradors Run	0.00mi	3/2.0	1,355 (0%)	1mo	$230,000	$170	99
13072 Labradors Run	0.11mi	3/2.0	1,404 (+4%)	10mo	$250,000	$178	80
13158 Labradors Run	0.14mi	3/2.0	1,200 (-11%)	2mo	$255,000	$213	72
16423 Absalom St	0.57mi	3/2.0	1,353 (-0%)	2mo	$235,000	$174	72
16377 Mansion St	0.59mi	3/2.0	1,330 (-2%)	1mo	$259,900	$195	69
13577 Chartres St	0.51mi	3/2.0	1,378 (+2%)	11mo	$215,000	$156	64
16399 Mansion St	0.60mi	3/2.0	1,320 (-3%)	8mo	$244,000	$185	61
16484 Mansion St	0.61mi	3/2.0	1,404 (+4%)	8mo	$255,000	$182	59
16089 Mansion St	0.50mi	3/2.0	1,458 (+8%)	6mo	$261,500	$179	59
13520 Sartoris Ct	0.48mi	3/2.0	1,233 (-9%)	12mo	$215,000	$174	53
16063 Mansion St	0.46mi	3/2.0	1,548 (+14%)	10mo	$274,000	$177	46
13591 Sartoris Ct	0.53mi	3/2.0	1,155 (-15%)	11mo	$229,000	$198	42

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 1.81% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -11.5%
• Equity multiple: 0.59×
• Total profit: $-27,181
• Equity at exit: $35,039

10-year hold

• IRR: -4.0%
• Equity multiple: 0.75×
• Total profit: $-16,581
• Equity at exit: $20,319

Cash invested: $65,800 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Alabama: 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+15
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Right-to-evict in 7 days for non-payment; no rent control; preempted statewide; courts move quickly.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 36535

• Home prices YoY: -24.9%
• Rents YoY: 1.8%
• Active inventory: 883
• Price-to-rent: 9.4×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,087 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,232
• Tax from tax record: −$108 /mo · $1,290/yr
• Insurance: −$98
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$438
• Net cashflow: $211

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,820

Max offer price $235,000

Occupancy floor 85%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $344	-5% $278	+0% $211	+5% $145	+10% $78
Rent	-10% $46	-5% $129	+0% $211	+5% $294	+10% $376
Rate	-1.0pp $330	-0.5pp $271	base $211	+0.5pp $150	+1.0pp $88

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $58,750
• Closing costs: $7,050
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 2 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
13634 Logan Pl , AL	3.0	2.0	1281	$1,895	$1.48	23d	1	0.94mi
13691 Logan Pl , AL	4.0	2.0	1417	$1,995	$1.41	23d	1	0.98mi

Listing history 8 events

1. 2026-05-15
   status Pending 429-char remark
2. 2026-05-07
   historical Active Under Contract 429-char remark
3. 2026-05-05
   historical $1,600
4. 2026-04-22
   listed $235,000 Active 429-char remark
5. 2026-04-21
   listed $1,600
6. 2017-04-10
   soldstatus $135,000
7. 2017-04-07
   soldstatus $134,900 515-char remark

   Show marketing remark (515 chars)

   This home is in a very good location in Quail Valley subdivision with a large fenced back yard. The home has been professionally painted and the kitchen and living room area is all nice tile. All bedrooms have new laminate wood-look flooring. The A/C is new and installed Spring 2016. The large living room has a vaulted ceiling. The master bath has two separate closets and two separate sinks. This is a great neighborhood which is very convenient to Magnolia Elementary School. This is a very nice, upgraded home.

8. 2017-01-03
   listed $134,900 515-char remark

   Show marketing remark (515 chars)

   This home is in a very good location in Quail Valley subdivision with a large fenced back yard. The home has been professionally painted and the kitchen and living room area is all nice tile. All bedrooms have new laminate wood-look flooring. The A/C is new and installed Spring 2016. The large living room has a vaulted ceiling. The master bath has two separate closets and two separate sinks. This is a great neighborhood which is very convenient to Magnolia Elementary School. This is a very nice, upgraded home.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast AL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,290 · $108/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,290 · $108/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 2/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 10/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥106°F today · 25 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 4 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $25,048
• − Mortgage interest: −$13,164
• − Property taxes: −$1,290
• − Insurance: −$1,175
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,004
• − Management: −$2,004
• − Depreciation: −$6,836
• Taxable loss: −$1,425
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$342
• After-tax cash flow: $2,876/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Baldwin County
• NCES district ID: 0100270
• Math proficiency: 33% ▼ -26.00%
• Reading proficiency: 57% ▲ 1.00%
• Median HH income: $50,677
• Composite: 38.61/100
• National rank: #4157
• State rank: #18 of 129 in AL

Livability — Foley

• Score: 61/100
• State rank: #241
• US rank: #17616

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A- Crime B Employment D+ Housing A+ Health & safety D- User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Baldwin County · 181,514 people
• City population: 40,628
• Metro: Daphne-Fairhope-Foley, AL
• Population (ZIP): 40,628
• Household income: $66,714
• Rent vs Own: 22.6% rent · 77.4% own
• Severe rent burden: 803.0

Population outlook (Baldwin County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 248,264 people
• By 2030: 270,315 · +8.9%
• By 2040: 312,967 · +26.1%
• By 2050: 352,262 · +41.9%
• By 2075: 438,841 · +76.8%
• By 2100: 487,736 · +96.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (78%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 78% Hispanic / Latino 10% Two or more races 8% Black 5% Asian 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 6%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 2% Romanian 2% Slovak 1%
• Foreign-born: 6% · Canada, China
• Languages at home: 89% English-only · Spanish 7% Other Indo-European 2% Chinese 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Baldwin

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+58.2) · D 20.5% · R 78.7%
• 2008→2024 swing: -6.7pp toward R · 2008: -51.5pp · 2024: -58.2pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+58.2 2020: R+53.8 2016: R+57.8 2012: R+55.8 2008: R+51.5

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -86.82%
• Current HPI: 262.2796
• Rent YoY: ▲ 1.81%
• Metro: Daphne-Fairhope-Foley, AL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.94%
• F500 in state: 4

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in AL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	1	$8B
▸Healthcare	1	$5B

Price history

+70.5% since first listed

9 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-02 Sold (MLS) $230,000 BCAR
• 2026-05-15 Pending — BCAR
• 2026-05-07 Contingent — BCAR
• 2026-05-05 Rental Removed $1,600 BCAR
• 2026-04-22 Listed $235,000 BCAR
• 2026-04-21 Listed for Rent $1,600 BCAR
• 2017-04-10 Sold (Public Records) $135,000 Public Records
• 2017-04-07 Sold (MLS) $134,900 BCAR
• 2017-01-03 Listed $134,900 BCAR

Property tax history

+17.4%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,290 · +13.5% YoY. Source: county tax records.