3215 Milburn St · Houston, TX 77021

$425,000

4 bd · 2.5 ba · 2,991 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 24 Days on market

Built 1949 6,660 sqft lot Est $640k · 34% under

---

Why this score? — see what drove the C grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +17.1/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• 1% rule +5.8/10.0
• DSCR +5.3/10.0
• Livability +3.7/5.0
• Rent growth +3.0/5.0
• Schools +2.7/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

MULTIPLE OFFERS RECEIVED! Welcome to 3215 Milburn St in Historic Riverside Terrace. Located just 2 blocks away from Macgregor Dr, this traditional home is perfect for the discerning buyer looking to put a personal touch on a blank slate. With hardwood flooring throughout, formals, a home office, as well as an oversized family room at the rear of the home, this property is both spacious and functional. Right under 3,000 sq ft with 4 true bedrooms along with 2.5 bathrooms provide the space needed for both families and individuals. Light remodeling has already been done to the home and it is now ready for a new buyer to finish the job. An oversized pool ready backyard with. detached garage ar

Key facts

• Hardwood flooring
• Inviting front porch
• Home office

Tags

• HARDWOOD FLOORING
• HOME OFFICE
• OVERSIZED FAMILY ROOM
• OVERSIZED POOL READY BACKYARD
• INVITING FRONT PORCH

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Lease not considered

Exterior

• Parking: Detached garage; 2-car garage
• Security: Smoke detectors
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer
• Home design: Residential property; North-facing
• Construction: Brick construction; Composition roof; Slab foundation; Built in 1949
• Exterior features: Private yard; Fence; Back yard fencing; Subdivision lot

Interior

• Kitchen: Double oven; Dishwasher; Gas cooktop; Disposal; Microwave; Refrigerator
• Bedrooms: Primary bedroom on second level (17x16); Bedroom on second level (13x12); Bedroom on second level (17x13); Additional bedrooms (dimensions available)
• Flooring: Slate; Tile; Wood
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms; 1 half bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Central heating (gas); Central air conditioning (electric)
• Interior features: Breakfast bar; Balcony; Dry bar; Granite counters; Kitchen island; Kitchen/family room combo; Primary bedroom with bath; Soaking tub; Separate shower; Tub/shower; Gas log fireplace (1)
• Laundry & utility: Washer hookup; Electric dryer hookup; Washer; Dryer

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.5-bath single-family listed at $425k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $229 ($3k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($5k rent vs $425k).
• Recommended offer: $419k (1.5% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 7.1% vs local median 3.2% in Houston — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 74/100 on livability (#184 in TX, #4,771 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: amenities A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: crime F.
• Houston ISD (urban): math 27% / reading 35% proficiency, ranked #593 of 826 in TX (top 72%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 71% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Thompson El (math 22% / reading 32%, grade F, #2,791 of 4,322 statewide, top 68%, 401 students, 99% FRL); Cullen Middle (math 6% / reading 14%, grade F, #1,641 of 1,662 statewide, top 99%, 324 students, 100% FRL); Yates H S (math 12% / reading 23%, grade F, #1,451 of 1,632 statewide, top 89%, 851 students, 96% FRL) — zoned schools average 98% FRL vs 71% district-wide (27 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 18% at this address vs 31% district-wide (-13 pts) — the specific schools serving this property underperform the Houston ISD average; the district grade overstates school quality for this exact location.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+2.2%/yr); 472 active listings in the ZIP; 25 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 15d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 29,883 units permitted in Harris County in 2024 (8,621 in 5+ unit buildings).
• At $4,607/mo this rent would consume 121% of the median local household income ($46k/yr) (locally 2532% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $3k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $13k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Harris County population projected at +47% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 24 days — a 2% lower offer ($419k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 20 sale attempts since 19y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: property tax is 2.6% of price; flood insurance adds $66/mo; built in 1949 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: major flood risk; severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→24/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $418,625 (1.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1949 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. Property tax is high relative to price — has the assessment been appealed recently, and will the sale trigger a re-assessment?
3. What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.08% ✓
• Cap rate: 7.13%
• Cash-on-cash: 2.98%
• DSCR: 1.13
• GRM: 7.7

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $640,074
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
3215 Milburn St	0.00mi	4/2.5	2,991 (0%)	1mo	$425,000	$142	99
3332 Ozark St	0.21mi	4/3.5	3,360 (+12%)	1mo	$730,000	$217	65
3217 Calumet St	0.50mi	4/2.5	2,754 (-8%)	3mo	$289,999	$105	61
2515 N Macgregor Way	0.50mi	3/3.5 (-1)	2,926 (-2%)	5mo	$749,000	$256	60
6403 Bowling Green St	0.30mi	3/3.5 (-1)	2,689 (-10%)	1mo	$455,000	$169	60
2324 Camden Dr Unit C	0.53mi	4/4.5	3,139 (+5%)	2mo	$584,990	$186	57
3209 Binz St	0.45mi	4/4.5	2,745 (-8%)	2mo	$715,000	$260	56
3417 Charleston St	0.44mi	3/2.0 (-1)	2,768 (-8%)	7mo	$450,000	$163	55
2431 Calumet St	0.70mi	3/3.5 (-1)	3,106 (+4%)	1mo	$799,000	$257	51
6326 Mystic Bridge Dr	0.42mi	4/4.5	3,389 (+13%)	5mo	$725,000	$214	46
2414 Charleston St Unit C	0.45mi	3/3.5 (-1)	2,559 (-14%)	1mo	$415,000	$162	45
6306 Mystic Bridge Dr	0.41mi	4/4.5	3,369 (+13%)	10mo	$760,000	$226	43

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 2.17% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -13.6%
• Equity multiple: 0.51×
• Total profit: $-57,730
• Equity at exit: $63,369

10-year hold

• IRR: -6.2%
• Equity multiple: 0.62×
• Total profit: $-45,414
• Equity at exit: $36,746

Cash invested: $119,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 77021

• Home prices YoY: -23.6%
• Rents YoY: 2.2%
• Active inventory: 472
• Price-to-rent: 7.7×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $4,607 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,229
• Tax from tax record: −$938 /mo · $11,255/yr
• Insurance: −$177
• Flood insurance flood zone: −$66 /mo · $798/yr
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$967
• Net cashflow: $229

Break-even live

Break-even rent $4,317

Max offer price $425,000

Occupancy floor 90%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $470	-5% $349	+0% $229	+5% $109	+10% $-11
Rent	-10% $-135	-5% $47	+0% $229	+5% $411	+10% $593
Rate	-1.0pp $443	-0.5pp $337	base $229	+0.5pp $119	+1.0pp $7

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $106,250
• Closing costs: $12,750
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 25 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
5505 Zoemark Ln Houston, TX	3.0	3.5	2477	$2,850	$1.15	45d	1	0.27mi
6318 Grand Blvd Houston, TX	3.0	3.5	2325	$2,999	$1.29	6d	1	0.37mi
5927 Almeda Rd Unit AHP3 Houston, TX	4.0	4.5	3055	$7,635	$2.50	5d	1	0.61mi
5927 Almeda Rd Houston, TX	2.0–4.0	2.5–4.0	3055	$7,635	$2.50	14d	2	0.62mi
5927 Almeda Rd Houston, TX	1.0–4.0	1.0–4.0	3055	$7,635	$2.50	0d	4	0.62mi
5927 Almeda Rd Houston, TX	1.0–4.0	1.0–4.0	3055	$7,635	$2.50	1d	3	0.62mi
5927 Almeda Rd Houston, TX	4.0	4.0	3055	$7,635	$2.50	45d	1	0.63mi
5927 Almeda Rd Houston, TX	4.0	4.0	3055	$7,635	$2.50	26d	1	0.63mi
5933 Almeda Rd Unit 2-1405 Houston, TX	4.0	4.0	3055	$7,442	$2.44	45d	1	0.64mi
3024 Charline Ave Houston, TX	3.0	3.5	1995	$2,950	$1.48	46d	1	0.89mi
3731 Alsace St Unit 1560804P Houston, TX	3.0	2.0	2002	$3,387	$1.69	4d	1	0.94mi
2403 Arbor St Houston, TX	3.0	2.5	2344	$2,800	$1.19	45d	1	1.02mi
2703 Blodgett St Unit 1047952P Houston, TX	1.0–5.0	1.5–5.5	2497	$14,025	$5.62	0d	2	1.03mi
1910 Oakdale St Unit A Houston, TX	3.0	3.5	2452	$3,890	$1.59	13d	1	1.04mi
1818 Prospect St Houston, TX	3.0	2.0	2923	$3,400	$1.16	5d	1	1.06mi
3535 Wentworth St Houston, TX	4.0	3.0	2600	$2,650	$1.02	23d	1	1.10mi
4306 Ennis St Houston, TX	3.0	3.0	1989	$2,500	$1.26	45d	1	1.14mi
1904 Lauderdale St Houston, TX	3.0	3.5	2223	$3,000	$1.35	22d	1	1.22mi
5350 Crawford St Unit 5383 Houston, TX	3.0	2.0	1991	$4,460	$2.24	12d	1	1.25mi
5350 Crawford St Unit 3165 Houston, TX	3.0	2.0	1991	$4,420	$2.22	0d	1	1.25mi
4135 DuPont St Houston, TX	3.0	4.0	2395	$2,499	$1.04	45d	1	1.28mi
7016 Staffordshire Blvd Unit B Houston, TX	3.0	3.5	2527	$4,295	$1.70	6d	1	1.31mi
4908 Crawford St Houston, TX	3.0	2.0	2526	$3,250	$1.29	45d	1	1.35mi
3615 Dreyfus St Houston, TX	3.0	3.0	2011	$2,800	$1.39	45d	1	1.42mi
5280 Caroline St Houston, TX	1.0–3.0	1.0–3.5	1880	$6,216	$3.31	0d	22	1.42mi

Listing history 50 events

1. 2026-05-12
   status Pending
2. 2026-04-29
   status Pending
3. 2026-04-17
   listed $425,000 Active
4. 2026-04-17
   historical
5. 2026-03-05
   listed $480,000 Active
6. 2026-02-23
   historical
7. 2026-02-23
   listed $480,000
8. 2025-09-30
   historical
9. 2025-09-16
   historical $3,000
10. 2025-08-05
    listed $3,000
11. 2025-08-04
    status Active
12. 2025-08-04
    listed $520,000 Active
13. 2025-08-04
    historical
14. 2025-05-20
    historical $3,500
15. 2025-05-20
    historical
16. 2025-05-16
    listed $3,500
17. 2025-03-12
    listed $521,000 Active
18. 2024-10-08
    historical
19. 2024-10-01
    price $499,900
20. 2024-07-13
    price $550,000
21. 2024-06-14
    status Active
22. 2024-06-13
    listed $620,000 Active
23. 2024-06-13
    historical
24. 2023-03-21
    historical
25. 2023-02-12
    price $610,000
26. 2023-01-20
    listed $680,000 Active
27. 2022-08-03
    soldstatus
28. 2022-08-01
    soldstatus Sold
29. 2022-06-27
    status Pending
30. 2022-06-01
    price $515,000
31. 2022-05-20
    price $535,000
32. 2022-04-21
    listed $544,800 Active
33. 2022-03-13
    historical
34. 2021-12-30
    status Active
35. 2021-12-30
    status Pending
36. 2021-12-20
    status Option Pending
37. 2021-11-11
    listed $529,000 Active
38. 2021-11-11
    historical
39. 2021-09-18
    price $529,000
40. 2021-08-25
    listed $540,000 Active
41. 2012-06-28
    historical
42. 2012-06-11
    historical
43. 2012-05-05
    listed $275,000
44. 2012-01-04
    listed $280,000
45. 2008-05-20
    historical
46. 2008-04-21
    listed $265,000
47. 2008-02-28
    historical
48. 2007-10-18
    listed $279,500
49. 2007-10-04
    historical
50. 2007-03-09
    listed $299,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $11,255 · $938/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $11,255 · $938/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 7/10 Severe FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 99% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥109°F today · 24 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $55,281
• − Mortgage interest: −$23,807
• − Property taxes: −$11,255
• − Insurance: −$2,922
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$4,422
• − Management: −$4,422
• − Depreciation: −$12,364
• Taxable loss: −$3,912
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$939
• After-tax cash flow: $3,688/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Houston ISD
• NCES district ID: 4823640
• Math proficiency: 27% ▼ -18.00%
• Reading proficiency: 35% ▼ -6.00%
• Median HH income: $46,054
• Composite: 26.63/100
• National rank: #7173
• State rank: #593 of 826 in TX

Livability — Houston

• Score: 74/100
• State rank: #184
• US rank: #4771

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment C Housing A+ Health & safety A- User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Houston, TX
• County: Harris County · 4,702,590 people
• City population: 3,226,434
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• Population (ZIP): 26,153
• Household income: $45,574
• Rent vs Own: 58.2% rent · 41.8% own
• Severe rent burden: 2532.0

Population outlook (Harris County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 5,571,493 people
• By 2030: 6,089,821 · +9.3%
• By 2040: 7,142,806 · +28.2%
• By 2050: 8,185,864 · +46.9%
• By 2075: 10,574,329 · +89.8%
• By 2100: 12,109,958 · +117.4%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.55)
• Race & ethnicity: Black 62% Hispanic / Latino 22% Two or more races 12% White 10% Asian 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 15%
• Common ancestry: Italian 1% Romanian 1% Lithuanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 11% · Canada
• Languages at home: 77% English-only · Spanish 19% French/Haitian/Cajun 1% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Harris

• 2024 margin: Lean D (+5.5) · D 52.0% · R 46.4% · Other 1.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: +3.9pp toward D · 2008: 1.6pp · 2024: 5.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+5.5 2020: D+13.3 2016: D+12.4 2012: D+0.1 2008: D+1.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -71.22%
• Current HPI: 230.2869
• Rent YoY: ▲ 2.17%
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

+42.1% since first listed

52 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-12 Pending — HARMLS
• 2026-04-29 Pending — HARMLS
• 2026-04-17 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2026-04-17 Listed $425,000 HARMLS
• 2026-03-05 Listed $480,000 HARMLS
• 2026-02-23 Listed $480,000 HARMLS
• 2026-02-23 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2025-09-30 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2025-09-16 Rental Removed $3,000 HARMLS
• 2025-08-05 Listed for Rent $3,000 HARMLS
• 2025-08-04 Relisted — HARMLS
• 2025-08-04 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2025-08-04 Listed $520,000 HARMLS
• 2025-05-20 Rental Removed $3,500 HARMLS
• 2025-05-20 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2025-05-16 Listed for Rent $3,500 HARMLS
• 2025-03-12 Listed $521,000 HARMLS
• 2024-10-08 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2024-10-01 Price Changed $499,900 HARMLS
• 2024-07-13 Price Changed $550,000 HARMLS
• 2024-06-14 Relisted — HARMLS
• 2024-06-13 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2024-06-13 Listed $620,000 HARMLS
• 2023-03-21 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2023-02-12 Price Changed $610,000 HARMLS
• 2023-01-20 Listed $680,000 HARMLS
• 2022-08-03 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2022-08-01 Sold (MLS) — HARMLS
• 2022-06-27 Pending — HARMLS
• 2022-06-01 Price Changed $515,000 HARMLS
• 2022-05-20 Price Changed $535,000 HARMLS
• 2022-04-21 Listed $544,800 HARMLS
• 2022-03-13 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2021-12-30 Relisted — HARMLS
• 2021-12-30 Pending — HARMLS
• 2021-12-20 Pending — HARMLS
• 2021-11-11 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2021-11-11 Listed $529,000 HARMLS
• 2021-09-18 Price Changed $529,000 HARMLS
• 2021-08-25 Listed $540,000 HARMLS
• 2012-06-28 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2012-06-11 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2012-05-05 Listed $275,000 HARMLS
• 2012-01-04 Listed $280,000 HARMLS
• 2008-05-20 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2008-04-21 Listed $265,000 HARMLS
• 2008-02-28 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2007-10-18 Listed $279,500 HARMLS
• 2007-10-04 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2007-03-09 Listed $299,000 HARMLS
• 2004-04-13 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 1988-01-02 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records

Property tax history

+4.2%/yr

Latest (2025): $11,255 · +1.5% YoY. Source: county tax records.