14064 Textile Run · Ruskin, FL 34219

$239,999

2 bd · 2.5 ba · 1,205 sqft · Townhouse · 197 Days on market

Built 2024 Est $217k · 11% over $260/mo HOA · 11% of rent ↓ 4% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the F grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +10.9/30.0
• 1% rule +4.6/10.0
• Schools +4.4/10.0
• Livability +3.6/5.0
• DSCR +3.2/10.0
• ARV discount +2.7/15.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Rent growth +2.3/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

What's Special: Corner Lot | End Unit | Model Home | Model Leaseback. Model Home - Available Now! Built by America’s Most Trusted Homebuilder. Welcome to the Hazel at 14064 Textile Run in The Towns at Firethorn! Designed for comfort and style! Step into an inviting foyer that opens to a bright dining area and spacious great room. Toward the back, the kitchen shines with a large pantry and easy access to a charming outdoor patio—perfect for relaxing or entertaining. A convenient powder room completes the first floor. Upstairs, the private primary suite offers two generous closets and a spa-like bath, while a secondary bedroom with en-suite bath and nearby laundry make everyday li

Key facts

• End unit
• Large pantry
• Model home

Tags

• CORNER LOT
• END UNIT
• MODEL HOME
• LARGE PANTRY
• CHARMING OUTDOOR PATIO
• PRIVATE PRIMARY SUITE

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: CDD present
• Financial info: Lease restrictions apply
• HOA & community: HOA managed by Castle Management Group; Monthly HOA approximately $260 (quarterly fee shown $780); Association approval required; Association amenities: pool, playground; Community features: dog park, playground, pool, street lights; Pets allowed with restrictions and limits

Exterior

• Parking: Common parking
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer; Cable available; Electricity available; Phone available; Sewer available; Water available; Underground utilities; Fire hydrant; Sprinkler recycled; Irrigation equipment
• Home design: Attached townhouse; Two stories; South-facing; New construction; Completed condition
• Construction: Block, concrete and stucco construction; Shingle roof; Slab foundation; Built by Taylor Morrison (model: Hazel)
• Exterior features: Hurricane shutters; Sliding doors; Storage; Corner lot; Paved road

Interior

• Kitchen: Convection oven; Dishwasher; Disposal; Microwave; Refrigerator
• Bedrooms: 2 bedrooms
• Flooring: Carpet; Tile
• Bathrooms: 2 full baths; 1 half bath
• Heating & cooling: Electric heating; Central air conditioning
• Interior features: Open floorplan; Window treatments
• Laundry & utility: Washer; Dryer; Inside laundry room; Inside utility

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.5-bath townhouse listed at $240k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-105 ($-1k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $225k (6.3% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $230k (4.3% below list).
• Recommended offer: $211k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 5.8% vs local median 4.7% in Ruskin — meaningfully above typical; check what's discounted (condition, days-on-market, listing class) to confirm the premium yield is real.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 71/100 on livability (#392 in FL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, commute B+; Watch: amenities F, health & safety F.
• Manatee (suburban): math 54% / reading 50% proficiency, ranked #26 of 73 in FL (top 36%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Barbara A Harvey Elementary School (math 74% / reading 59%, grade B+, #473 of 2,144 statewide, top 23%, 1,069 students, 33% FRL); Parrish Community High School (math 47% / reading 57%, grade D+, #160 of 667 statewide, top 25%, 2,017 students, 32% FRL) — zoned schools average 33% FRL vs 51% district-wide (18 pts lower); this property's tenant base skews higher-income than the district average.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-0.9%/yr); 2170 active listings in the ZIP; high-income renter base; 7,472 units permitted in Manatee County in 2024 (1,782 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $7k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Manatee County population projected at +43% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 197 days — a 12% lower offer ($211k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→30/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $211,199 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 197 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
7. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.96% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.77%
• Cash-on-cash: -1.87%
• DSCR: 0.92
• GRM: 8.7

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $216,900
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
14024 Textile Run	0.04mi	2/2.5	1,219 (+1%)	0mo	$211,000	$173	96
14004 Textile Run	0.05mi	2/2.5	1,205 (0%)	2mo	$229,000	$190	96
14012 Textile Run	0.05mi	2/2.5	1,219 (+1%)	2mo	$219,999	$180	94
13207 Forge Ave	0.08mi	2/2.5	1,205 (0%)	4mo	$229,999	$191	93
14028 Textile Run	0.03mi	2/2.5	1,219 (+1%)	5mo	$219,999	$180	93
13231 Forge Ave	0.08mi	2/2.5	1,219 (+1%)	3mo	$229,999	$189	92
14016 Textile Run	0.04mi	2/2.5	1,219 (+1%)	5mo	$219,999	$180	92
13173 Forge Ave	0.09mi	2/2.0	1,219 (+1%)	0mo	$219,999	$180	92
14020 Textile Run	0.04mi	2/2.5	1,219 (+1%)	7mo	$224,999	$185	91
14036 Textile Run	0.43mi	2/2.5	1,205 (0%)	6mo	$229,999	$191	75
14040 Textile Run	0.43mi	2/2.5	1,219 (+1%)	6mo	$219,999	$180	73
13181 Forge Ave	0.09mi	2/2.0	1,373 (+14%)	1mo	$219,999	$160	70

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -23.3%
• Equity multiple: 0.22×
• Total profit: $-52,091
• Equity at exit: $35,785

10-year hold

• IRR: -31.5%
• Equity multiple: -0.18×
• Total profit: $-79,159
• Equity at exit: $20,751

Cash invested: $67,200 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 34219

• Home prices YoY: -23.7%
• Rents YoY: -0.9%
• Active inventory: 2170
• Price-to-rent: 8.7×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,296 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,259
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$300 /mo · $3,600/yr
• Insurance: −$100
• HOA: −$260
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$482
• Net cashflow: $-105

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,429

Max offer price $224,853

Occupancy floor 100%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $61	-5% $-22	+0% $-105	+5% $-188	+10% $-271
Rent	-10% $-286	-5% $-195	+0% $-105	+5% $-14	+10% $77
Rate	-1.0pp $16	-0.5pp $-44	base $-105	+0.5pp $-167	+1.0pp $-230

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $60,000
• Closing costs: $7,200
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $260 · $3,120/yr

Listing history 16 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $239,999 Active 197 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $239,999 Active 196 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $239,999 Active 195 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $239,999 Active 194 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $239,999 Active 192 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $239,999 Active 191 DOM
7. 2026-06-10
   days on market $239,999 Active 189 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $239,999 Active 188 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $239,999 Active 187 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    days on market $239,999 Active 186 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $239,999 Active 182 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $239,999 Active 181 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $239,999 Active 180 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $239,999 Active 179 DOM
15. 2026-04-24
    price $239,999
16. 2025-12-03
    listed $249,000 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 10/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥108°F today · 30 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 10/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 3 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $27,553
• − Mortgage interest: −$13,444
• − Property taxes: −$3,600
• − Insurance: −$1,200
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,204
• − Management: −$2,204
• − HOA: −$3,120
• − Depreciation: −$6,982
• Taxable loss: −$5,201
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,248
• After-tax cash flow: $-8/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Manatee
• NCES district ID: 1201230
• Math proficiency: 54% ▼ -6.00%
• Reading proficiency: 50% ▼ -2.00%
• Median HH income: $49,607
• Composite: 44.43/100
• National rank: #2806
• State rank: #26 of 73 in FL

Livability — Ruskin

• Score: 71/100
• State rank: #392
• US rank: #6879

Category grades

Amenities F Commute B+ Cost of living A+ Crime B- Employment B- Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Manatee County · 416,364 people
• City population: 33,319
• Metro: North Port-Sarasota-Bradenton, FL
• Population (ZIP): 33,296
• Household income: $113,773
• Rent vs Own: 8.1% rent · 91.9% own
• Severe rent burden: 219.0

Population outlook (Manatee County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 447,342 people
• By 2030: 488,911 · +9.3%
• By 2040: 567,934 · +27.0%
• By 2050: 637,995 · +42.6%
• By 2075: 781,970 · +74.8%
• By 2100: 848,272 · +89.6%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (75%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 75% Hispanic / Latino 11% Two or more races 8% Black 8% Asian 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 2% Puerto Rican 3%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 4% Hispanic 2% Russian 2%
• Foreign-born: 10% · Canada, Dominican Republic, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 88% English-only · Spanish 7% French/Haitian/Cajun 2% Other Asian/Pacific 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Manatee

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+23.5) · D 37.9% · R 61.4%
• 2008→2024 swing: -16.5pp toward R · 2008: -7.0pp · 2024: -23.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+23.5 2020: R+16.1 2016: R+17.1 2012: R+12.5 2008: R+7.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -84.45%
• Current HPI: 271.7131
• Rent YoY: ▼ -0.95%
• Metro: North Port-Sarasota-Bradenton, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

-3.6% since first listed

2 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-24 Price Changed $239,999 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-12-03 Listed $249,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid