368 Sidney St E · St. Paul, MN 55107

$219,000

3 bd · 1.5 ba · 1,284 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 62 Days on market

Built 1980 4,791 sqft lot $171/sqft · 20% below area Est $305k · 28% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• Cash flow +8.1/30.0
• Rent growth +5.0/5.0
• 1% rule +2.9/10.0
• Livability +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +2.4/10.0
• DSCR +2.1/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Come see this three-bedroom, two bath home in St. Paul on the west side! Easy access to downtown St. Paul and surrounding suburbs to the east and south. This home is move-in ready and waiting for your finishing touches. There is a bonus room in the basement that could be a future bedroom with the addition of an egress window. This home has everything you need -- schedule a visit today!

Key facts

• 4,791 sq ft lot
• Built 1980
• Listed 62 days

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.5-bath single-family listed at $219k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-213 ($-3k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $181k (17.2% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $173k (20.9% below list).
• Recommended offer: $173k (20.9% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads: area grade D — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• St. Paul Public School District (urban): math 21% / reading 33% proficiency, ranked #270 of 301 in MN (top 90%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 64% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+10.8%/yr); 64 active listings in the ZIP; 8 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 5d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 1,202 units permitted in Ramsey County in 2024 (880 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $7k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Ramsey County population projected at +27% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 62 days — a 6% lower offer ($206k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 3 sale attempts since 22y ago; this cycle's ask is 4% above the opening price — seller raised mid-cycle; expect resistance to lowballs.
• Current owner paid $165k; 33% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.

Recommended offer $173,303 (20.9% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 62 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 21% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.79% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.13%
• Cash-on-cash: -4.17%
• DSCR: 0.81
• GRM: 10.5

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $304,917
• List price: $219,000
• Delta: -28.18%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 3 within 1.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 8.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -17.6%
• Equity multiple: 0.35×
• Total profit: $-39,834
• Equity at exit: $32,654

10-year hold

• IRR: -2.0%
• Equity multiple: 0.83×
• Total profit: $-10,202
• Equity at exit: $18,935

Cash invested: $61,320 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 46 Balanced
• State Minnesota: 46 Balanced · D+2
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

2024 reforms strengthened tenant protections; ramsey/hennepin courts paced moderate to slow.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 55107

• Home prices YoY: -16.2%
• Rents YoY: 10.8%
• Active inventory: 64
• Price-to-rent: 10.5×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,733 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,148
• Tax from tax record: −$342 /mo · $4,110/yr
• Insurance: −$91
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$364
• Net cashflow: $-213

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,003

Max offer price $181,352

Occupancy floor —

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $54,750
• Closing costs: $6,570
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 8 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
422 Arion St E West St Paul, MN	2.0	1.0	1072	$1,395	$1.30	24d	1	0.71mi
421 Stanley St Unit 423 St Paul, MN	2.0	1.0	1350	$1,850	$1.37	4d	1	0.74mi
993 Robert St S Saint Paul, MN	2.0	2.0	1214	$1,765	$1.45	4d	1	0.76mi
460 Stanley St Unit 2 West St Paul, MN	2.0	1.0	925	$1,300	$1.41	14d	1	0.79mi
140 Belvidere St W Unit 1 St Paul, MN	2.0	1.0	1600	$1,650	$1.03	2d	1	1.06mi
45 Butler Ave E Saint Paul, MN	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1040	$1,682	$1.62	1d	12	1.09mi
1905 Parkwood Dr South Saint Paul, MN	2.0	1.0–2.0	972	$1,470	$1.51	2d	7	1.27mi
1266 Gorman Ave Saint Paul, MN	1.0–2.0	1.0	816	$1,329	$1.63	16d	3	1.30mi

Listing history 23 events

1. 2026-06-17
   status $219,000 Pending 62 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $219,000 Contingent - Inspection 62 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $219,000 Contingent - Inspection 61 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $219,000 Contingent - Inspection 60 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $219,000 Contingent - Inspection 58 DOM
6. 2026-06-09
   days on market $219,000 Contingent - Inspection 54 DOM
7. 2026-06-08
   statusdays on market $219,000 Contingent - Inspection 53 DOM
8. 2026-06-07
   days on market $219,000 Active 52 DOM
9. 2026-06-04
   days on market $219,000 Active 49 DOM
10. 2026-06-03
    days on market $219,000 Active 48 DOM
11. 2026-06-02
    days on market $219,000 Active 47 DOM
12. 2026-06-01
    days on market $219,000 Active 46 DOM
13. 2026-05-31
    days on market $219,000 Active 45 DOM
14. 2026-05-05
    price $219,000 392-char remark

    Show marketing remark (392 chars)

    Come see this three-bedroom, two bath home in St. Paul on the west side! Easy access to downtown St. Paul and surrounding suburbs to the east and south. This home is move-in ready and waiting for your finishing touches. There is a bonus room in the basement that could be a future bedroom with the addition of an egress window. This home has everything you need -- schedule a visit today!

15. 2026-04-17
    price $224,900 392-char remark

    Show marketing remark (392 chars)

    Come see this three-bedroom, two bath home in St. Paul on the west side! Easy access to downtown St. Paul and surrounding suburbs to the east and south. This home is move-in ready and waiting for your finishing touches. There is a bonus room in the basement that could be a future bedroom with the addition of an egress window. This home has everything you need -- schedule a visit today!

16. 2026-04-16
    listed $210,000 Active 392-char remark

    Show marketing remark (392 chars)

    Come see this three-bedroom, two bath home in St. Paul on the west side! Easy access to downtown St. Paul and surrounding suburbs to the east and south. This home is move-in ready and waiting for your finishing touches. There is a bonus room in the basement that could be a future bedroom with the addition of an egress window. This home has everything you need -- schedule a visit today!

17. 2025-01-27
    historical $2,100
18. 2024-12-13
    listed $2,100
19. 2004-08-02
    soldstatus $164,900
20. 2004-06-25
    soldstatus $164,900 265-char remark

    Show marketing remark (265 chars)

    CLEAN & NEAT RAMBLER W/AN EXCELLENT KIT/DINING SET UP. NICE SIZE ROOMS, MSTR BDRM HAS DOUBLE CLOSETS. LOWER LVL. HAS AMPLE STORAGE - FAM RM & 3RD BDRM. THE YARD IS FENCED & THERE IS A LOT OF SPACE FOR A FUTURE GARAGE. ALL APPL STAY - READY FOR NEW BUYER

21. 2004-05-14
    historical 265-char remark

    Show marketing remark (265 chars)

    CLEAN & NEAT RAMBLER W/AN EXCELLENT KIT/DINING SET UP. NICE SIZE ROOMS, MSTR BDRM HAS DOUBLE CLOSETS. LOWER LVL. HAS AMPLE STORAGE - FAM RM & 3RD BDRM. THE YARD IS FENCED & THERE IS A LOT OF SPACE FOR A FUTURE GARAGE. ALL APPL STAY - READY FOR NEW BUYER

22. 2004-05-08
    listed $159,900 265-char remark

    Show marketing remark (265 chars)

    CLEAN & NEAT RAMBLER W/AN EXCELLENT KIT/DINING SET UP. NICE SIZE ROOMS, MSTR BDRM HAS DOUBLE CLOSETS. LOWER LVL. HAS AMPLE STORAGE - FAM RM & 3RD BDRM. THE YARD IS FENCED & THERE IS A LOT OF SPACE FOR A FUTURE GARAGE. ALL APPL STAY - READY FOR NEW BUYER

23. 2001-07-02
    soldstatus $103,090

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast MN · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $4,110 · $342/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $4,110 · $342/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 2/10 Low 7 d/yr ≥100°F today · 14 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $20,796
• − Mortgage interest: −$12,267
• − Property taxes: −$4,110
• − Insurance: −$1,095
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,664
• − Management: −$1,664
• − Depreciation: −$6,371
• Taxable loss: −$6,374
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,530
• After-tax cash flow: $-1,028/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: St. Paul Public School District
• NCES district ID: 2733840
• Math proficiency: 21% ▼ -11.00%
• Reading proficiency: 33% ▼ -7.00%
• Median HH income: $48,316
• Composite: 23.51/100
• National rank: #7868
• State rank: #270 of 301 in MN

Livability — St. Paul

No livability data for this city. (Only ~50 U.S. cities are tracked.)

Census & demographics

• Census place: St. Paul, MN
• County: Ramsey County · 542,837 people
• City population: 280,599
• Metro: Minneapolis-St. Paul-Bloomington, MN-WI
• Population (ZIP): 15,377
• Household income: $74,531
• Rent vs Own: 39.4% rent · 60.6% own
• Severe rent burden: 639.0

Population outlook (Ramsey County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 603,431 people
• By 2030: 636,459 · +5.5%
• By 2040: 700,596 · +16.1%
• By 2050: 765,819 · +26.9%
• By 2075: 929,297 · +54.0%
• By 2100: 1,053,924 · +74.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Highly diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.71)
• Race & ethnicity: White 47% Hispanic / Latino 23% Two or more races 16% Black 13% Asian 9% Native American 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 19%
• Common ancestry: Portuguese 7% Lithuanian 3% Romanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 18% · Canada, Philippines, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 72% English-only · Spanish 15% Other Asian/Pacific 4% Tagalog/Filipino 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Ramsey

• 2024 margin: Solid D (+43.3) · D 70.5% · R 27.2% · Other 2.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: +9.4pp toward D · 2008: 33.9pp · 2024: 43.3pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+43.3 2020: D+45.4 2016: D+39.4 2012: D+35.3 2008: D+33.9

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -57.70%
• Current HPI: 298.8714
• Rent YoY: ▲ 10.76%
• Metro: Minneapolis-St. Paul-Bloomington, MN-WI
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.41%
• F500 in state: 34

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in MN)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	2	$407B
▸Retail	2	$150B
▸Consumer Goods	2	$32B
▸Industrial Machinery	2	$6B
▸Agriculture	1	$40B
▸Healthcare / Medical Devices	1	$32B

Price history

+112.4% since first listed

10 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-05 Price Changed $219,000 NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-04-17 Price Changed $224,900 NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-04-16 Listed $210,000 NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-01-27 Rental Removed $2,100 RENT.
• 2024-12-13 Listed for Rent $2,100 RENT.
• 2004-08-02 Sold (Public Records) $164,900 Public Records
• 2004-06-25 Sold (MLS) $164,900 NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2004-05-14 Listing Removed — NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2004-05-08 Listed $159,900 NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2001-07-02 Sold (Public Records) $103,090 Public Records

Property tax history

+7.1%/yr

Latest (2025): $4,110 · +28.4% YoY. Source: county tax records.