121 Haley Creek Dr · Madison, MS 39110

$165,000

3 bd · 4.0 ba · 954 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 20 Days on market

Built 1990 0.25 ac lot Est $181k · 9% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the B grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• ARV discount +11.5/15.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• 1% rule +8.2/10.0
• Schools +4.8/10.0
• Livability +4.0/5.0
• Rent growth +3.2/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Welcome to your new home! This adorable home is ready for its new owners just in time for Summer! Conveniently located and in award winning Germantown Schools this home is a great deal for those looking for their first home, or someone wanting to buy a rental. Not only is this home adorable, it is affordable, and if you qualify is located in a USDA zone. The two bedrooms are oversized and the bathroom is spacious. The fully fenced in yard is perfect for a pup or two. New paint, new water heater, and a brand new roof are some of the upgrades that have been done. Call your favorite realtor quick before this one is sold!

Key facts

• Brand new roof
• New paint
• New water heater

Tags

• FULLY FENCED YARD
• NEW PAINT
• NEW WATER HEATER
• BRAND NEW ROOF

Property features AI

Exterior

• Parking: Carport (1 space); Concrete parking surface
• Security: Smoke detectors
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer; Electricity connected; Sewer connected; Water connected
• Home design: Single-family house; One story; Move-in ready
• Construction: Brick and siding exterior; Architectural shingle roof; Concrete perimeter foundation and slab; Built (year from public records)
• Exterior features: Private yard; Fenced yard (back yard); Front porch

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Electric cooktop
• Bedrooms: Bedrooms on one level
• Flooring: Carpet; Ceramic tile
• Bathrooms: 1 full bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Central heating; Central air conditioning; Has heating and cooling
• Interior features: Tile countertops; Insulated vinyl windows; Front porch
• Laundry & utility: Laundry room; Electric water heater

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/4.0-bath single-family listed at $165k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $753 ($9k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $165k).
• Recommended offer: $163k (1.5% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 11.8% vs local median 3.7% in Madison — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 81/100 on livability (#4 in MS, #1,556 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: crime A+, employment A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities D-, commute F.
• Madison County School District (rural): math 54% / reading 54% proficiency, ranked #3 of 130 in MS (top 2%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Madison Crossing Elementary (math 52% / reading 55%, grade C, #49 of 375 statewide, top 13%, 775 students, 100% FRL); Germantown Middle School (math 55% / reading 58%, grade B, #14 of 179 statewide, top 7%, 1,008 students, 100% FRL); Germantown High School (math 34% / reading 41%, grade F, #59 of 197 statewide, top 30%, 1,396 students, 100% FRL) — zoned schools average 100% FRL vs 29% district-wide (70 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+2.6%/yr); 628 active listings in the ZIP; high-income renter base; 553 units permitted in Madison County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $5k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Madison County population projected at +34% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 2.6% rent growth), your $46k cash investment doubles in ~7 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 20 days — a 2% lower offer ($163k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 8 sale attempts since 24y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 80% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→20/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $162,525 (1.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
2. Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
3. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
4. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
5. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.32% ✓
• Cap rate: 11.77%
• Cash-on-cash: 19.56%
• DSCR: 1.87
• GRM: 6.3

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $181,260
• Comps found: 2

Show comp detail 2 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
101 Haley Creek Dr	0.08mi	2/1.0 (-1)	904 (-5%)	16mo	$172,000	$190	58
113 Hidden Crst	0.06mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,055 (+11%)	14mo	$185,000	$175	55

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 2.61% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 11.1%
• Equity multiple: 1.44×
• Total profit: $20,300
• Equity at exit: $24,602

10-year hold

• IRR: 19.9%
• Equity multiple: 2.64×
• Total profit: $75,673
• Equity at exit: $14,266

Cash invested: $46,200 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Mississippi: 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+11
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; very landlord-favorable; no rent control.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 39110

• Home prices YoY: -28.3%
• Rents YoY: 2.6%
• Active inventory: 628
• Price-to-rent: 6.3×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,183 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$865
• Tax from tax record: −$38 /mo · $453/yr
• Insurance: −$69
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$458
• Net cashflow: $753

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,230

Max offer price $165,000

Occupancy floor 61%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $41,250
• Closing costs: $4,950
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 25 events

1. 2026-04-21
   status Pending
2. 2026-04-14
   price $165,000
3. 2026-04-01
   listed $170,000 Active
4. 2021-10-20
   historical
5. 2021-10-02
   historical
6. 2020-09-25
   soldstatus
7. 2020-08-08
   listed $119,999
8. 2018-05-01
   soldstatus
9. 2018-04-23
   soldstatus
10. 2018-03-13
    listed $107,000
11. 2015-11-12
    listed $105,500
12. 2011-03-31
    listed $94,900
13. 2007-11-28
    soldstatus
14. 2007-11-08
    soldstatus
15. 2007-08-04
    listed $94,900
16. 2003-10-22
    soldstatus
17. 2003-09-09
    soldstatus
18. 2003-08-29
    soldstatus
19. 2003-08-27
    listed $76,000
20. 2003-08-26
    soldstatus
21. 2002-08-20
    soldstatus
22. 2002-08-09
    soldstatus
23. 2002-07-15
    listed $73,900
24. 2000-01-21
    soldstatus
25. 1997-07-17
    soldstatus

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast MS · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $453 · $38/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,304 · $109/mo
• Expected delta: +$851/yr (+$71/mo · 187.7%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥108°F today · 20 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 80% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $26,200
• − Mortgage interest: −$9,243
• − Property taxes: −$453
• − Insurance: −$825
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,096
• − Management: −$2,096
• − Depreciation: −$4,800
• Taxable income: $6,687
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,605
• After-tax cash flow: $7,432/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Madison County School District
• NCES district ID: 2802790
• Math proficiency: 54% ▼ -7.00%
• Reading proficiency: 54% ▼ -7.00%
• Median HH income: $70,579
• Composite: 48.08/100
• National rank: #2188
• State rank: #3 of 130 in MS

Livability — Madison

• Score: 81/100
• State rank: #4
• US rank: #1556

Category grades

Amenities D- Commute F Cost of living B Crime A+ Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety B- User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Madison County · 75,005 people
• City population: 50,443
• Metro: Jackson, MS
• Population (ZIP): 50,443
• Household income: $125,506
• Rent vs Own: 9.1% rent · 90.9% own
• Severe rent burden: 227.0

Population outlook (Madison County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 122,509 people
• By 2030: 131,737 · +7.5%
• By 2040: 148,930 · +21.6%
• By 2050: 164,300 · +34.1%
• By 2075: 197,495 · +61.2%
• By 2100: 211,429 · +72.6%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (76%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 76% Black 15% Asian 4% Two or more races 3% Hispanic / Latino 2%
• Common ancestry: Italian 6% Slovak 3% Lithuanian 3%
• Foreign-born: 5% · China, Canada
• Languages at home: 92% English-only · Spanish 2% Other Indo-European 2% Chinese 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Madison

• 2024 margin: R (+17.3) · D 40.8% · R 58.0% · Other 1.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: -1.7pp toward R · 2008: -15.6pp · 2024: -17.3pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+17.3 2020: R+11.8 2016: R+16.1 2012: R+15.7 2008: R+15.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -60.99%
• Current HPI: 154.6909
• Rent YoY: ▲ 2.61%
• Metro: Jackson, MS
• State GDP YoY: —
• F500 in state: 0

Price history

+123.3% since first listed

25 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-21 Pending — MLSU
• 2026-04-14 Price Changed $165,000 MLSU
• 2026-04-01 Listed $170,000 MLSU
• 2021-10-20 Listing Removed — MLSU
• 2021-10-02 Listing Removed — MLSU
• 2020-09-25 Sold (MLS) — MLSU
• 2020-08-08 Listed $119,999 MLSU
• 2018-05-01 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2018-04-23 Sold (MLS) — MLSU
• 2018-03-13 Listed $107,000 MLSU
• 2015-11-12 Listed $105,500 MLSU
• 2011-03-31 Listed $94,900 MLSU
• 2007-11-28 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2007-11-08 Sold (MLS) — MLSU
• 2007-08-04 Listed $94,900 MLSU
• 2003-10-22 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2003-09-09 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2003-08-29 Sold (MLS) — MLSU
• 2003-08-27 Listed $76,000 MLSU
• 2003-08-26 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2002-08-20 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2002-08-09 Sold (MLS) — MLSU
• 2002-07-15 Listed $73,900 MLSU
• 2000-01-21 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 1997-07-17 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records

Property tax history

-4.0%/yr

Latest (2025): $453 · +0.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.