5512 Nightingale Dr · Houston, TX 77017

$160,000

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,301 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 10 Days on market

Built 1950 6,838 sqft lot Est $195k · 18% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the D+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• Cash flow +13.3/30.0
• 1% rule +4.4/10.0
• DSCR +4.0/10.0
• Livability +3.7/5.0
• Rent growth +2.7/5.0
• Schools +2.7/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Welcome to 5512 Nightingale Drive!This charming 3-bedroom, 1-bath home offers a functional layout, spacious bedrooms, and a large backyard. Conveniently located with easy access to Hwy 225, Downtown Houston, Hobby Airport, shopping, dining, and schools. Whether you're a first-time homebuyer or investor, this home is full of opportunity and value. Schedule your showing today!

Key facts

• Large backyard
• Access to shopping
• Access to dining

Tags

• LARGE BACKYARD
• EASY ACCESS TO HWY 225
• ACCESS TO DOWNTOWN HOUSTON
• ACCESS TO HOBBY AIRPORT
• ACCESS TO SHOPPING
• ACCESS TO DINING

Property features AI

Finance

• Financial info: Lease not considered

Exterior

• Parking: Attached carport; 1-car carport
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer
• Home design: Residential property; Built in 1950; Slab foundation; Composition roof
• Construction: Vinyl siding exterior
• Exterior features: Subdivision lot

Interior

• Bedrooms: Rooms include bedrooms (total rooms: 3)
• Bathrooms: 1 full bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Window-unit heating; Central air conditioning; Electric cooling; Window-unit cooling
• Interior features: 3 total rooms; Seller disclosure available

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $160k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-1 ($-16/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $160k (0.2% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $151k (5.9% below list).
• Recommended offer: $151k (5.9% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 6.3% vs local median 3.2% in Houston — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 74/100 on livability (#184 in TX, #4,771 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: amenities A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: crime F.
• Houston ISD (urban): math 27% / reading 35% proficiency, ranked #593 of 826 in TX (top 72%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 71% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Patterson El (math 28% / reading 37%, grade F, #2,234 of 4,322 statewide, top 52%, 921 students, 95% FRL); Stevenson Middle (math 22% / reading 35%, grade F, #1,122 of 1,662 statewide, top 69%, 1,192 students, 92% FRL); Chavez H S (math 26% / reading 26%, grade F, #1,234 of 1,632 statewide, top 76%, 2,272 students, 93% FRL) — zoned schools average 94% FRL vs 71% district-wide (22 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: Rents flat; 88 active listings in the ZIP; 14 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 11d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 29,883 units permitted in Harris County in 2024 (8,621 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 35% of the median local income ($51k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $5k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Harris County population projected at +47% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• Only 10 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1950 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: moderate flood risk; severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→22/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $150,587 (5.9% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. Built in 1950 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.94% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.28%
• Cash-on-cash: -0.04%
• DSCR: 1.00
• GRM: 8.9

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $195,150
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
1703 Seagull St	0.21mi	3/2.0	1,260 (-3%)	10mo	$229,900	$182	73
1308 Pecan Dr	0.46mi	3/1.0	1,256 (-4%)	2mo	$120,000	$96	71
5403 Primrose St	0.32mi	4/1.0 (+1)	1,269 (-2%)	6mo	$190,000	$150	71
919 Oak Meadows St	0.61mi	3/1.0	1,218 (-6%)	0mo	$195,500	$161	61
5510 Meadow Creek Ln	0.33mi	3/1.5	1,422 (+9%)	8mo	$165,000	$116	61
10 Pine Creek Ct	0.51mi	3/2.0	1,225 (-6%)	5mo	$227,500	$186	58
1106 Aubert St	0.68mi	3/2.0	1,290 (-1%)	6mo	$215,000	$167	58
5551 Winding Creek Way	0.26mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,463 (+12%)	2mo	$129,900	$89	57
5611 Woodlark St	0.37mi	2/1.0 (-1)	1,137 (-13%)	11mo	$75,000	$66	48
806 Evonne St	0.52mi	3/1.0	1,463 (+12%)	10mo	$195,000	$133	46
1508 Hemlock Dr	0.44mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,468 (+13%)	5mo	$229,900	$157	45
1914 Firwood Dr	0.70mi	3/2.0	1,429 (+10%)	6mo	$199,900	$140	42

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.88% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -18.9%
• Equity multiple: 0.35×
• Total profit: $-29,084
• Equity at exit: $23,857

10-year hold

• IRR: -16.8%
• Equity multiple: 0.16×
• Total profit: $-37,503
• Equity at exit: $13,834

Cash invested: $44,800 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 77017

• Home prices YoY: -21.7%
• Rents YoY: 0.9%
• Active inventory: 88
• Price-to-rent: 8.9×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,506 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$839
• Tax from tax record: −$285 /mo · $3,423/yr
• Insurance: −$67
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$316
• Net cashflow: $-1

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,508

Max offer price $159,759

Occupancy floor 95%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $40,000
• Closing costs: $4,800
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 14 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
1514 Allen Genoa Rd Houston, TX	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	846	$1,715	$2.03	2d	24	0.30mi
5535 Timber Creek Place Dr Houston, TX	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	757	$1,214	$1.60	3d	18	0.65mi
4800 Allendale Rd Unit 4857 Houston, TX	2.0	2.0	1322	$1,373	$1.04	11d	1	0.80mi
4800 Allendale Rd Unit 2162 Houston, TX	2.0	2.0	1322	$1,349	$1.02	5d	1	0.80mi
4800 Allendale Rd Unit 425 Houston, TX	2.0	2.0	1322	$1,349	$1.02	7d	1	0.80mi
4800 Allendale Rd Unit 2165 Houston, TX	2.0	2.0	1322	$1,341	$1.01	3d	1	0.80mi
4800 Allendale Rd Unit 2047 Houston, TX	2.0	2.0	1322	$1,384	$1.05	11d	1	0.80mi
4921 Barkley St Houston, TX	3.0	2.0	1502	$1,900	$1.26	19d	1	0.85mi
4806 Allendale Rd Houston, TX	2.0	2.0	1322	$1,152	$0.87	43d	1	0.92mi
2810 Forest Oaks Blvd Houston, TX	4.0	2.0	1280	$1,675	$1.31	44d	1	0.93mi
1009 Richey St Pasadena, TX	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	885	$1,499	$1.69	3d	26	1.30mi
6043 Bonn Echo Ln Houston, TX	2.0	2.0	900	$1,165	$1.29	43d	1	1.36mi
4206 E Villa St Houston, TX	3.0	1.0	1190	$1,845	$1.55	14d	1	1.43mi
412 N 8th St Unit 2 South Houston, TX	2.0	1.0	1000	$895	$0.90	43d	1	1.43mi

Listing history 7 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $160,000 Active 10 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $160,000 Active 9 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $160,000 Active 8 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $160,000 Active 7 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $160,000 Active 5 DOM
6. 2026-06-08
   remarks 377-char remark
7. 2026-06-08
   listed $160,000 Active 1 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $3,423 · $285/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $3,423 · $285/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 5/10 Major FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 24% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥109°F today · 22 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $18,070
• − Mortgage interest: −$8,962
• − Property taxes: −$3,423
• − Insurance: −$800
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,446
• − Management: −$1,446
• − Depreciation: −$4,655
• Taxable loss: −$2,661
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$639
• After-tax cash flow: $622/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Houston ISD
• NCES district ID: 4823640
• Math proficiency: 27% ▼ -18.00%
• Reading proficiency: 35% ▼ -6.00%
• Median HH income: $46,054
• Composite: 26.63/100
• National rank: #7173
• State rank: #593 of 826 in TX

Livability — Houston

• Score: 74/100
• State rank: #184
• US rank: #4771

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment C Housing A+ Health & safety A- User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Houston, TX
• County: Harris County · 4,702,590 people
• City population: 3,226,434
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• Population (ZIP): 29,640
• Household income: $51,079
• Rent vs Own: 49.0% rent · 51.0% own
• Severe rent burden: 1601.0

Population outlook (Harris County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 5,571,493 people
• By 2030: 6,089,821 · +9.3%
• By 2040: 7,142,806 · +28.2%
• By 2050: 8,185,864 · +46.9%
• By 2075: 10,574,329 · +89.8%
• By 2100: 12,109,958 · +117.4%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly Hispanic (81%)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 81% Two or more races 38% White 7% Black 6% Asian 4%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 65%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 39% · Canada, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 32% English-only · Spanish 63% Vietnamese 4%

Political lean MEDSL · Harris

• 2024 margin: Lean D (+5.5) · D 52.0% · R 46.4% · Other 1.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: +3.9pp toward D · 2008: 1.6pp · 2024: 5.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+5.5 2020: D+13.3 2016: D+12.4 2012: D+0.1 2008: D+1.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -76.86%
• Current HPI: 277.3656
• Rent YoY: ▲ 0.88%
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

2 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-08 Listed $160,000 HARMLS
• 1988-05-11 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records

Property tax history

+1.8%/yr

Latest (2025): $3,423 · +10.7% YoY. Source: county tax records.