McKinley F Plan · Ponder, TX 76259

$395,950

4 bd · 3.0 ba · 2,056 sqft · SingleFamily · 69 Days on market

Good condition Garage

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Why this score? — see what drove the F grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +5.0/10.0
• Condition / age +3.8/5.0
• Livability +3.2/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Cash flow +0.7/30.0
• 1% rule +0.0/10.0
• DSCR +0.0/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Explore the McKinley F Floor Plan - Single-story, 4 Bed, 3 Bath with Gameroom!The McKinley F - a versatile one-story home designed to fit your lifestyle! This plan offers 4 bedrooms, 3 bathrooms, gameroom and 2,000+ sq ft of thoughtfully designed living space that adapts to your needs. This layout is built to support how you live - with comfort, functionality, and style in mind. Features like High Ceilings, Expansive Walk-In Closets, Gameroom and Covered Patio create a flexible foundation for personalization and convenience. Whether you're relaxing, hosting, working from home, or simply enjoying daily life, the McKinley F provides the right spaces in the right places.

Key facts

• 3 garage spots
• Listed 68 days

🏗️ New construction. The $395,950 list price is a builder figure, so every metric below is computed on the value from comparable previous sales — $763,216.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/3.0-bath single-family listed at $396k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-3k ($-39k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $291k (26.4% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $255k (35.6% below list).
• Recommended offer: $255k (35.6% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 1.2% vs local median 4.4% in Ponder — below-typical yield; the buyer is paying a premium for something (appreciation thesis, condition, location) that the cap rate doesn't capture.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 64/100 on livability (#787 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, housing A+, cost of living A; Watch: amenities F, commute F, health & safety F.
• Ponder ISD (rural): math 48% / reading 49% proficiency, ranked #165 of 826 in TX (top 20%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Ponder El (math 39% / reading 41%, grade F, #1,514 of 4,322 statewide, top 36%, 754 students, 44% FRL); Ponder J H (math 54% / reading 50%, grade C+, #301 of 1,662 statewide, top 19%, 381 students, 40% FRL); Ponder H S (math 52% / reading 62%, grade C, #333 of 1,632 statewide, top 22%, 505 students, 36% FRL) — zoned schools at 40% FRL track the district average.
• Market conditions: 476 active listings in the ZIP; solid renter incomes; 10,531 units permitted in Denton County in 2024 (2,713 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 30% of the median local income ($102k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $5k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $23k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Denton County population projected at +66% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 69 days — a 6% lower offer ($372k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: property tax is 2.9% of price.
• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 27% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→22/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $254,939 (35.6% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 69 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 36% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Property tax is high relative to price — has the assessment been appealed recently, and will the sale trigger a re-assessment?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.33% ✗
• Cap rate: 1.17%
• Cash-on-cash: -18.31%
• DSCR: 0.19
• GRM: 24.9

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $763,216
• List price: $395,950
• Delta: -48.12%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 3 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
9161 Old Stoney Rd	1.28mi	4/3.0	2,494 (+21%)	0mo	$724,999	$291	40
485 Stone Ridge Dr	1.44mi	4/2.0	2,016 (-2%)	27mo	$299,900	$149	38
10903 Jackson Rd	0.88mi	5/3.0 (+1)	2,300 (+12%)	6mo	$474,900	$206	35
10609 Jackson Rd	0.69mi	3/3.5 (-1)	2,354 (+14%)	2mo	$1,100,000	$467	35
3610 George Owens Rd	1.26mi	4/2.0	2,143 (+4%)	28mo	$625,000	$292	34
10550 Jackson Rd	0.73mi	4/2.5	2,462 (+20%)	6mo	$749,999	$305	34
11278 Jackson Rd	1.28mi	3/2.5 (-1)	2,379 (+16%)	0mo	$949,000	$399	33
9209 Old Stoney Rd	1.22mi	3/2.5 (-1)	2,246 (+9%)	12mo	$699,000	$311	32
3728 George Owens Rd	1.17mi	4/2.5	2,543 (+24%)	12mo	$670,000	$263	28
381 Split Rail Cir	1.36mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,920 (-7%)	30mo	$280,000	$146	25
10496 Jackson Rd	0.53mi	3/2.0 (-1)	2,494 (+21%)	22mo	$779,700	$313	23
220 Split Rail Cir	1.49mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,664 (-19%)	12mo	$199,900	$120	21

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -53.2%
• Equity multiple: -0.55×
• Total profit: $-331,292
• Equity at exit: $113,798

10-year hold

• IRR: —
• Equity multiple: -1.60×
• Total profit: $-555,718
• Equity at exit: $65,989

Cash invested: $213,701 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

Buyer's market Market conditions within 1.0 mi — comparable homes for sale

Active competition Active MLS

• For sale now: 60 active · 3 under contract
• Months of supply: 360.0 mo (0%/mo absorbed)
• Median asking: $346,450 ($176/sqft)
• Median days on market: 87 d
• This list price: 98% of active listings are priced below it
• ARV vs active asking: +111.3% above current asking $/sqft

Closed sales set the value; these active listings set current market conditions and a practical price ceiling.

ZIP-level market 76259

• Home prices YoY: -5.2%
• Active inventory: 476
• Price-to-rent: 12.9×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,549 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$4,002
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$954 /mo · $11,448/yr
• Insurance: −$318
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$535
• Net cashflow: $-3,260

Break-even live

Break-even rent $6,676

Max offer price $291,432

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-2,733	-5% $-2,997	+0% $-3,260	+5% $-3,524	+10% $-3,788
Rent	-10% $-3,462	-5% $-3,361	+0% $-3,260	+5% $-3,160	+10% $-3,059
Rate	-1.0pp $-2,876	-0.5pp $-3,066	base $-3,260	+0.5pp $-3,458	+1.0pp $-3,659

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $190,804
• Closing costs: $22,896
• Club membership (one-time): —
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Property features AI

Finance

• Financial info: List price $390,950

Exterior

• Parking: 2 garage spaces (2 total parking spaces)
• Utilities: Has heatingHas cooling
• Home design: Residence identified as McKinley F planActive listing

Interior

• Bedrooms: 4 bedrooms
• Bathrooms: 3 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Forced air heatingCentral air conditioning
• Interior features: Plan: McKinley F (new construction plan)

Listing history 50 events

1. 2026-11-08
   days on market $395,950 Active 69 DOM
2. 2026-11-07
   days on market $395,950 Active 68 DOM
3. 2026-11-06
   days on market $395,950 Active 67 DOM
4. 2026-11-05
   days on market $395,950 Active 66 DOM
5. 2026-11-04
   pricedays on market $395,950 Active 65 DOM
6. 2026-11-02
   days on market $390,950 Active 63 DOM
7. 2026-11-01
   days on market $390,950 Active 62 DOM
8. 2026-10-31
   days on market $390,950 Active 61 DOM
9. 2026-10-30
   days on market $390,950 Active 60 DOM
10. 2026-10-29
    days on market $390,950 Active 59 DOM
11. 2026-10-28
    days on market $390,950 Active 58 DOM
12. 2026-10-27
    days on market $390,950 Active 57 DOM
13. 2026-10-26
    days on market $390,950 Active 56 DOM
14. 2026-10-25
    days on market $390,950 Active 55 DOM
15. 2026-10-24
    days on market $390,950 Active 54 DOM
16. 2026-10-23
    days on market $390,950 Active 53 DOM
17. 2026-10-22
    days on market $390,950 Active 52 DOM
18. 2026-10-21
    days on market $390,950 Active 51 DOM
19. 2026-10-20
    days on market $390,950 Active 50 DOM
20. 2026-10-19
    days on market $390,950 Active 49 DOM
21. 2026-10-18
    days on market $390,950 Active 48 DOM
22. 2026-10-17
    days on market $390,950 Active 47 DOM
23. 2026-10-16
    days on market $390,950 Active 46 DOM
24. 2026-10-15
    days on market $390,950 Active 45 DOM
25. 2026-10-14
    days on market $390,950 Active 44 DOM
26. 2026-10-13
    days on market $390,950 Active 43 DOM
27. 2026-10-12
    days on market $390,950 Active 42 DOM
28. 2026-10-11
    days on market $390,950 Active 41 DOM
29. 2026-10-10
    days on market $390,950 Active 40 DOM
30. 2026-10-09
    days on market $390,950 Active 39 DOM
31. 2026-10-08
    days on market $390,950 Active 38 DOM
32. 2026-10-07
    days on market $390,950 Active 37 DOM
33. 2026-10-06
    days on market $390,950 Active 36 DOM
34. 2026-10-05
    days on market $390,950 Active 35 DOM
35. 2026-10-04
    days on market $390,950 Active 34 DOM
36. 2026-10-04
    days on market $390,950 Active 33 DOM
37. 2026-10-02
    days on market $390,950 Active 32 DOM
38. 2026-10-01
    days on market $390,950 Active 31 DOM
39. 2026-09-30
    days on market $390,950 Active 30 DOM
40. 2026-09-29
    days on market $390,950 Active 29 DOM
41. 2026-09-28
    days on market $390,950 Active 28 DOM
42. 2026-09-27
    days on market $390,950 Active 27 DOM
43. 2026-09-26
    days on market $390,950 Active 26 DOM
44. 2026-09-25
    days on market $390,950 Active 25 DOM
45. 2026-09-24
    days on market $390,950 Active 24 DOM
46. 2026-09-23
    days on market $390,950 Active 23 DOM
47. 2026-09-22
    days on market $390,950 Active 22 DOM
48. 2026-09-21
    days on market $390,950 Active 21 DOM
49. 2026-09-20
    days on market $390,950 Active 20 DOM
50. 2026-09-19
    days on market $390,950 Active 19 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥109°F today · 22 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 27% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 4/10 Moderate 4 unhealthy d/yr today · 5 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $30,593
• − Mortgage interest: −$42,752
• − Property taxes: −$11,448
• − Insurance: −$3,816
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,447
• − Management: −$2,447
• − Depreciation: −$22,203
• Taxable loss: −$54,521
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$13,085
• After-tax cash flow: $-26,040/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 12 photos

Good 75/100 None rehab

This single-story home is in excellent condition with no visible repairs needed. Upgrades to paint, flooring, lighting, and smart home features would significantly enhance its resale and rental value.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Paint exterior and interior — Fresh paint enhances curb appeal and interior aesthetics ↑
• Both Install new flooring in bathrooms and kitchen — New flooring improves aesthetics and adds value ↑
• Both Upgrade lighting fixtures throughout — Modern lighting enhances ambiance and adds value ↑
• Both Add smart home features — Smart home features increase convenience and add value ↑

F Composite school gradezoned avg 50/100

Zoned Schools

Elementary Ponder El F TX #1,514/4,322 Nat'l #19,354/41,679 Middle Ponder J H C+ TX #301/1,662 Nat'l #3,033/14,009 High Ponder H S C TX #333/1,632 Nat'l #4,077/17,239

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Ponder ISD
• NCES district ID: 4835310
• Math proficiency: 48% ▼ -6.00%
• Reading proficiency: 49% ▲ 1.00%
• Median HH income: $70,768
• Composite: 43.53/100
• National rank: #2987
• State rank: #165 of 826 in TX

C Composite livability gradescore 64/100

Livability — Ponder

• Score: 64/100
• State rank: #787
• US rank: #14394

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A Crime A+ Employment B Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Denton County · 1,053,010 people
• City population: 6,596
• Metro: Dallas-Fort Worth-Arlington, TX
• Population (ZIP): 6,596
• Household income: $101,845
• Rent vs Own: 26.2% rent · 73.8% own
• Severe rent burden: 30% of renters

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Population outlook (Denton County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,053,010 people
• By 2030: 1,192,269 · +13.2%
• By 2040: 1,472,920 · +39.9%
• By 2050: 1,746,506 · +65.9%
• By 2075: 2,358,497 · +124.0%
• By 2100: 2,779,183 · +163.9%

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Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (83%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 83% Hispanic / Latino 11% Two or more races 8% Black 3%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 8%
• Languages at home: 95% English-only · Spanish 4%

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Political lean MEDSL · Denton

• 2024 margin: R (+13.2) · D 42.7% · R 55.8% · Other 1.5%
• 2008→2024 swing: +11.0pp toward D · 2008: -24.2pp · 2024: -13.2pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+13.2 2020: R+8.1 2016: R+20.2 2012: R+31.7 2008: R+24.2

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -15.17%
• Current HPI: 275.4082
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Dallas-Fort Worth-Arlington, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

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Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Property features AI

Finance

• Financial info: List price $390,950

Exterior

• Parking: 2 garage spaces (2 total parking spaces)
• Utilities: Has heatingHas cooling
• Home design: Residence identified as McKinley F planActive listing

Interior

• Bedrooms: 4 bedrooms
• Bathrooms: 3 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Forced air heatingCentral air conditioning
• Interior features: Plan: McKinley F (new construction plan)