304 Orange St · Freeman Spur, IL 62841

$12,500

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 999 sqft · SingleFamily · 15 Days on market

Built 1910 $13/sqft · 76% below area

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Why this score? — see what drove the D+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +15.0/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• 1% rule +5.0/10.0
• DSCR +5.0/10.0
• Appreciation +5.0/10.0
• Livability +2.6/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +2.1/10.0

Listing remarks

This home has a good roof , a full basement and a big attic . The home has been vandalized and needs extensive repairs . It sits on a 50 x 140 lot . If you want more info please call me at [phone]. Thanks

Key facts

• Built 1910
• Listed 14 days

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $12k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $618 ($7k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($893 rent vs $12k).
• Recommended offer: $12k (1.5% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 52/100 on livability (#1,304 in IL) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing B; Watch: schools F, crime F, amenities F.
• Herrin CUSD 4 (suburban): math 22% / reading 27% proficiency, ranked #364 of 620 in IL (top 59%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Market conditions: 2 active listings in the ZIP; 130 units permitted in Williamson County in 2024 (5 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $461 of equity ($86 loan paydown + $375 appreciation (3.0% local appreciation)).
• At projected returns (3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $4k cash investment doubles in ~1 year — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 15 days — a 2% lower offer ($12k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1910 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→20/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $12,312 (1.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1910 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
4. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 7.15% ✓
• Cap rate: 65.62%
• Cash-on-cash: 211.88%
• DSCR: 10.43
• GRM: 1.2

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $51,448
• List price: $12,500
• Delta: -75.70%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 9 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 4 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
19531 Freeman Spur Rd	0.49mi	2/1.0	1,025 (+3%)	14mo	$40,000	$39	61
19531 Freeman Spur Rd	0.49mi	2/1.0	1,025 (+3%)	14mo	$40,000	$39	61
201 Mount Moriah Ave	0.64mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,000 (+0%)	7mo	$37,000	$37	55
201 Mount Moriah Ave	0.64mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,000 (+0%)	7mo	$37,000	$37	55

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: —
• Equity multiple: 12.68×
• Total profit: $40,880
• Equity at exit: $5,621

10-year hold

• IRR: —
• Equity multiple: 26.83×
• Total profit: $90,388
• Equity at exit: $8,662

Cash invested: $3,500 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 43 Moderately Tenant-Leaning
• State Illinois: 43 Moderately Tenant-Leaning · D+7
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Chicago RTLO is among the strongest tenant ordinances in the Midwest; downstate is more landlord-friendly.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 62841

• Active inventory: 2
• Price-to-rent: 1.2×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $893 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$66
• Tax from tax record: −$17 /mo · $204/yr
• Insurance: −$5
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$188
• Net cashflow: $618

Break-even live

Break-even rent $111

Max offer price $12,500

Occupancy floor 26%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $3,125
• Closing costs: $375
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 1 events

1. 2026-05-12
   listed $12,500 Active 209-char remark

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast IL · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $204 · $17/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $244 · $20/mo
• Expected delta: +$40/yr (+$3/mo · 19.4%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 5/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥108°F today · 20 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low 3% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $10,721
• − Mortgage interest: −$700
• − Property taxes: −$204
• − Insurance: −$62
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$858
• − Management: −$858
• − Depreciation: −$364
• Taxable income: $7,675
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,842
• After-tax cash flow: $5,574/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Herrin CUSD 4
• NCES district ID: 1718810
• Math proficiency: 22% ▼ -11.00%
• Reading proficiency: 27% ▼ -17.00%
• Median HH income: $38,824
• Composite: 20.56/100
• National rank: #8558
• State rank: #364 of 620 in IL

Livability — Freeman Spur

• Score: 52/100
• State rank: #1304
• US rank: #24761

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment F Housing B Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Freeman Spur, IL
• City population: 108
• Population (ZIP): 108

Population outlook (Williamson County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 69,553 people
• By 2030: 70,090 · +0.8%
• By 2040: 70,345 · +1.1%
• By 2050: 69,394 · -0.2%
• By 2075: 63,590 · -8.6%
• By 2100: 51,154 · -26.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (85%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 85% Two or more races 9% Black 6%
• Common ancestry: Serbian 5% Lithuanian 3% Romanian 3%
• Languages at home: 99% English-only · Spanish 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Williamson

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+38.8) · D 30.0% · R 68.8% · Other 1.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: -24.0pp toward R · 2008: -14.8pp · 2024: -38.8pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+38.8 2020: R+37.3 2016: R+41.2 2012: R+25.0 2008: R+14.8

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: —
• Current HPI: —
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.59%
• F500 in state: 60

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in IL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Insurance	4	$201B
▸Consumer Goods	4	$87B
▸Industrial Machinery	3	$64B
▸Healthcare	2	$55B
▸Retail / Pharmacy	1	$148B
▸Agriculture / Food	1	$86B

Property tax history

-4.1%/yr

Latest (2025): $204 · -3.5% YoY. Source: county tax records.