Heeler Plan · Austin, TX 78747

$352,990

3 bd · 2.5 ba · 1,684 sqft · SingleFamily · 952 Days on market

↓ 24% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the F grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Cash flow +4.5/30.0
• Livability +4.1/5.0
• Schools +3.4/10.0
• Appreciation +3.2/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Rent growth +2.2/5.0
• 1% rule +0.5/10.0
• DSCR +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Build your family's future with the timeless comforts and top-quality craftsmanship of The Heeler floor plan by David Weekley Homes in Goodnight Ranch. Prepare, present and enjoy your culinary masterpieces in the contemporary kitchen overlooking the spacious family and dining areas. Enjoy movies and games together or create your ideal home office in the upstairs loft. Junior bedrooms are nestled away from the Owner's Retreat, helping everyone find a space they can make uniquely their own. It's easy to wake up on the right side of the bed in the luxurious Owner's Retreat, which includes an en suite bathroom and walk-in closet. Experience the Best in Design, Choice and Service with this amazing new home in Austin, Texas.

Key facts

• 2 garage spots
• Listed 952 days

🏗️ New construction. The $352,990 list price is a builder figure, so every metric below is computed on the value from comparable previous sales — $448,180.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.5-bath single-family listed at $353k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-1k ($-14k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $281k (20.5% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $245k (30.5% below list).
• Recommended offer: $245k (30.5% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 3.2% vs local median 1.8% in Austin — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 82/100 on livability (#16 in TX, #1,208 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: amenities A+, commute A+, employment A+; Watch: cost of living D, crime F.
• Austin ISD (urban): math 33% / reading 44% proficiency, ranked #431 of 826 in TX (top 52%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-1.0%/yr); 391 active listings in the ZIP; 40 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 22d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 17,121 units permitted in Travis County in 2024 (11,963 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 32% of the median local income ($93k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $3k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $13k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Travis County population projected at +60% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 952 days — a 12% lower offer ($311k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 80% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→21/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $245,482 (30.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 952 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 30% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.55% ✗
• Cap rate: 3.19%
• Cash-on-cash: -11.07%
• DSCR: 0.51
• GRM: 15.2

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $448,180
• List price: $352,990
• Delta: -21.24%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
5721 Baythorne Dr	0.46mi	3/3.0	1,584 (-6%)	3mo	$399,950	$252	64
6005 Baythorne Dr	0.40mi	3/3.0	1,557 (-8%)	3mo	$397,517	$255	64
8613 Ipswich Bay Dr	0.55mi	3/2.0	1,605 (-5%)	1mo	$319,900	$199	64
6301 Stockman Dr #5	0.20mi	3/3.5	1,918 (+14%)	6mo	$364,998	$190	59
10008 Gertrudis Loop	0.72mi	3/2.0	1,706 (+1%)	8mo	$369,500	$217	56
8912 Cattalo Ln	0.49mi	3/2.5	1,896 (+13%)	4mo	$389,999	$206	53
6212 Bumpstead Dr	0.61mi	3/2.0	1,605 (-5%)	12mo	$315,000	$196	52
5512 Baythorne Dr	0.54mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,823 (+8%)	11mo	$425,000	$233	45
8813 Sikes Way	0.55mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,823 (+8%)	12mo	$419,000	$230	44
8801 Mina Dr	0.60mi	3/2.0	1,862 (+11%)	11mo	$400,000	$215	43
5410 Fox Wing Way	0.63mi	3/3.0	1,533 (-9%)	14mo	$395,000	$258	42
5516 Baythorne Dr	0.54mi	3/2.0	1,894 (+12%)	12mo	$415,000	$219	42

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -39.7%
• Equity multiple: -0.22×
• Total profit: $-153,533
• Equity at exit: $66,825

10-year hold

• IRR: -85.0%
• Equity multiple: -1.04×
• Total profit: $-256,312
• Equity at exit: $38,750

Cash invested: $125,490 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 78747

• Home prices YoY: -1.9%
• Rents YoY: -1.0%
• Active inventory: 391
• Price-to-rent: 12.0×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,455 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,350
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$560 /mo · $6,723/yr
• Insurance: −$187
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$516
• Net cashflow: $-1,158

Break-even live

Break-even rent $3,921

Max offer price $280,621

Occupancy floor —

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $112,045
• Closing costs: $13,445
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 40 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
5806 Rangeland Rd Austin, TX	4.0	2.5	2151	$3,350	$1.56	4d	1	0.01mi
5806 Rangeland Rd Austin, TX	4.0	2.5	2151	$3,199	$1.49	23d	1	0.01mi
5804 Rotunda Vw Austin, TX	3.0	2.5	1668	$3,100	$1.86	43d	1	0.04mi
6414 Cowman Way Austin, TX	4.0	3.5	2100	$2,999	$1.43	4d	1	0.09mi
9015 Cattle Baron Path Austin, TX	2.0–3.0	2.5	1416	$2,500	$1.76	23d	1	0.41mi
9015 Cattle Baron Path Austin, TX	2.0–3.0	2.5	1416	$2,500	$1.76	4d	3	0.41mi
9015 Cattle Baron Path #605 Austin, TX	3.0	2.5	1493	$2,500	$1.67	17d	1	0.43mi
8816 Blaze Dr Austin, TX	3.0	3.0	1533	$2,295	$1.50	21d	1	0.54mi
9005 Alderman Dr Unit 9038 Austin, TX	3.0	2.0	1383	$2,377	$1.72	3d	1	0.54mi
5309a Baythorne Dr Austin, TX	3.0	2.5	1831	$2,400	$1.31	43d	1	0.56mi
2001 E Slaughter Ln Austin, TX	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	854	$1,677	$1.96	1d	19	0.59mi
9015 Cattle Baron Path #705 Austin, TX	3.0	2.5	1493	$2,190	$1.47	43d	1	0.59mi
9015 Cattle Baron Path #1801 Austin, TX	3.0	2.5	1493	$2,000	$1.34	4d	1	0.59mi
5308 Baythorne Dr Austin, TX	3.0	2.5	1896	$2,500	$1.32	43d	1	0.59mi
5813 Charles Merle Dr Unit B Austin, TX	3.0	2.5	1840	$2,400	$1.30	4d	1	0.63mi
8721 Whitter Dr Austin, TX	3.0	2.5	1800	$2,200	$1.22	21d	1	0.64mi
5906 Charles Merle Dr Austin, TX	2.0	2.0	1220	$1,099	$0.90	43d	1	0.64mi
5805 Charles Merle Dr Unit B Austin, TX	3.0	2.5	1792	$2,249	$1.26	2d	1	0.64mi
9336 Cattle Baron Path Austin, TX	4.0	2.0	1703	$1,535	$0.90	43d	1	0.66mi
8721 Whitter Dr Unit B Austin, TX	3.0	2.5	1835	$2,300	$1.25	21d	1	0.67mi
2022 E Slaughter Ln Austin, TX	1.0–4.0	1.0–2.0	1215	$1,482	$1.22	4d	17	0.71mi
8300 Augeron Dr Austin, TX	3.0	2.0	1624	$2,300	$1.42	23d	1	0.75mi
10317 Laurie Ln Austin, TX	3.0	2.5	1914	$2,350	$1.23	23d	1	0.84mi
10104 Deer Chase Trl Austin, TX	3.0	2.0	1220	$2,050	$1.68	17d	1	0.84mi
9000 Stambourne St Austin, TX	3.0	2.0	1314	$1,800	$1.37	23d	1	0.84mi
10305 Forest Grove Dr Austin, TX	4.0	2.5	2013	$2,350	$1.17	2d	1	0.84mi
10116 Deer Chase Trl Austin, TX	4.0	2.5	2240	$2,300	$1.03	43d	1	0.86mi
10001 Pinnacle Crest Loop Austin, TX	4.0	2.0	1700	$2,395	$1.41	17d	1	0.87mi
7813 Duber Ln Austin, TX	3.0	2.0	1426	$1,875	$1.31	43d	1	0.87mi
8808 Stambourne St Austin, TX	3.0	2.0	1304	$1,875	$1.44	23d	1	0.87mi
7812 Duber Ln Austin, TX	3.0	2.0	1426	$1,800	$1.26	14d	1	0.90mi
6309 Arbor Crest Ln Austin, TX	4.0	2.5	2080	$2,300	$1.11	43d	1	0.90mi
5204 Charles Merle Dr Austin, TX	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	993	$1,436	$1.45	1d	9	0.90mi
6813 Doyal Dr Austin, TX	3.0	3.0	1665	$2,300	$1.38	23d	1	0.92mi
7908 Nater Ln Austin, TX	4.0	2.5	1754	$1,995	$1.14	20d	1	0.92mi
5825 Silver Screen Dr Austin, TX	3.0	2.5	1820	$2,280	$1.25	4d	1	0.96mi
10200 Lone Pine Ln Austin, TX	3.0	2.0	1220	$1,975	$1.62	20d	1	0.97mi
10200 Lone Pine Ln Austin, TX	3.0	2.0	1220	$1,975	$1.62	23d	1	0.97mi
6404 Gunflint Dr Austin, TX	3.0	2.0	1500	$2,195	$1.46	16d	1	0.98mi
10504 Alemoor Dr Austin, TX	3.0	2.0	1500	$2,000	$1.33	43d	1	0.99mi

Listing history 19 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $352,990 Active 952 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $352,990 Active 951 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $352,990 Active 950 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $352,990 Active 949 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $352,990 Active 947 DOM
6. 2026-06-09
   days on market $352,990 Active 943 DOM
7. 2026-06-08
   days on market $352,990 Active 942 DOM
8. 2026-06-07
   days on market $352,990 Active 941 DOM
9. 2026-06-05
   days on market $352,990 Active 938 DOM
10. 2026-06-03
    days on market $352,990 Active 937 DOM
11. 2026-06-02
    days on market $352,990 Active 936 DOM
12. 2026-06-01
    days on market $352,990 Active 935 DOM
13. 2026-05-31
    days on market $352,990 Active 934 DOM
14. 2026-02-16
    price $352,990 728-char remark

    Show marketing remark (728 chars)

    Build your family's future with the timeless comforts and top-quality craftsmanship of The Heeler floor plan by David Weekley Homes in Goodnight Ranch. Prepare, present and enjoy your culinary masterpieces in the contemporary kitchen overlooking the spacious family and dining areas. Enjoy movies and games together or create your ideal home office in the upstairs loft. Junior bedrooms are nestled away from the Owner's Retreat, helping everyone find a space they can make uniquely their own. It's easy to wake up on the right side of the bed in the luxurious Owner's Retreat, which includes an en suite bathroom and walk-in closet. Experience the Best in Design, Choice and Service with this amazing new home in Austin, Texas.

15. 2025-12-24
    price $349,990 728-char remark

    Show marketing remark (728 chars)

    Build your family's future with the timeless comforts and top-quality craftsmanship of The Heeler floor plan by David Weekley Homes in Goodnight Ranch. Prepare, present and enjoy your culinary masterpieces in the contemporary kitchen overlooking the spacious family and dining areas. Enjoy movies and games together or create your ideal home office in the upstairs loft. Junior bedrooms are nestled away from the Owner's Retreat, helping everyone find a space they can make uniquely their own. It's easy to wake up on the right side of the bed in the luxurious Owner's Retreat, which includes an en suite bathroom and walk-in closet. Experience the Best in Design, Choice and Service with this amazing new home in Austin, Texas.

16. 2025-03-29
    price $409,990 728-char remark

    Show marketing remark (728 chars)

    Build your family's future with the timeless comforts and top-quality craftsmanship of The Heeler floor plan by David Weekley Homes in Goodnight Ranch. Prepare, present and enjoy your culinary masterpieces in the contemporary kitchen overlooking the spacious family and dining areas. Enjoy movies and games together or create your ideal home office in the upstairs loft. Junior bedrooms are nestled away from the Owner's Retreat, helping everyone find a space they can make uniquely their own. It's easy to wake up on the right side of the bed in the luxurious Owner's Retreat, which includes an en suite bathroom and walk-in closet. Experience the Best in Design, Choice and Service with this amazing new home in Austin, Texas.

17. 2024-02-13
    price $424,990 728-char remark

    Show marketing remark (728 chars)

    Build your family's future with the timeless comforts and top-quality craftsmanship of The Heeler floor plan by David Weekley Homes in Goodnight Ranch. Prepare, present and enjoy your culinary masterpieces in the contemporary kitchen overlooking the spacious family and dining areas. Enjoy movies and games together or create your ideal home office in the upstairs loft. Junior bedrooms are nestled away from the Owner's Retreat, helping everyone find a space they can make uniquely their own. It's easy to wake up on the right side of the bed in the luxurious Owner's Retreat, which includes an en suite bathroom and walk-in closet. Experience the Best in Design, Choice and Service with this amazing new home in Austin, Texas.

18. 2024-02-07
    price $465,990 728-char remark

    Show marketing remark (728 chars)

    Build your family's future with the timeless comforts and top-quality craftsmanship of The Heeler floor plan by David Weekley Homes in Goodnight Ranch. Prepare, present and enjoy your culinary masterpieces in the contemporary kitchen overlooking the spacious family and dining areas. Enjoy movies and games together or create your ideal home office in the upstairs loft. Junior bedrooms are nestled away from the Owner's Retreat, helping everyone find a space they can make uniquely their own. It's easy to wake up on the right side of the bed in the luxurious Owner's Retreat, which includes an en suite bathroom and walk-in closet. Experience the Best in Design, Choice and Service with this amazing new home in Austin, Texas.

19. 2023-11-09
    listed $463,990 Active 728-char remark

    Show marketing remark (728 chars)

    Build your family's future with the timeless comforts and top-quality craftsmanship of The Heeler floor plan by David Weekley Homes in Goodnight Ranch. Prepare, present and enjoy your culinary masterpieces in the contemporary kitchen overlooking the spacious family and dining areas. Enjoy movies and games together or create your ideal home office in the upstairs loft. Junior bedrooms are nestled away from the Owner's Retreat, helping everyone find a space they can make uniquely their own. It's easy to wake up on the right side of the bed in the luxurious Owner's Retreat, which includes an en suite bathroom and walk-in closet. Experience the Best in Design, Choice and Service with this amazing new home in Austin, Texas.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥108°F today · 21 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 80% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $29,458
• − Mortgage interest: −$25,105
• − Property taxes: −$6,723
• − Insurance: −$2,241
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,357
• − Management: −$2,357
• − Depreciation: −$13,038
• Taxable loss: −$22,362
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$5,367
• After-tax cash flow: $-8,529/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Austin ISD
• NCES district ID: 4808940
• Math proficiency: 33% ▼ -19.00%
• Reading proficiency: 44% ▼ -7.00%
• Median HH income: $54,627
• Composite: 33.65/100
• National rank: #5397
• State rank: #431 of 826 in TX

Livability — Austin

• Score: 82/100
• State rank: #16
• US rank: #1208

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A+ Cost of living D Crime F Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings D

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Austin, TX
• County: Travis County · 1,299,254 people
• City population: 1,066,854
• Metro: Austin-Round Rock-Georgetown, TX
• Population (ZIP): 22,180
• Household income: $92,748
• Rent vs Own: 33.2% rent · 66.8% own
• Severe rent burden: 812.0

Population outlook (Travis County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,545,133 people
• By 2030: 1,729,269 · +11.9%
• By 2040: 2,097,596 · +35.8%
• By 2050: 2,463,890 · +59.5%
• By 2075: 3,249,374 · +110.3%
• By 2100: 3,801,868 · +146.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.61)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 51% White 34% Two or more races 20% Black 7% Asian 3%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 40% Puerto Rican 1%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 2% Slovak 1% Romanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 13% · Canada, Vietnam, China
• Languages at home: 64% English-only · Spanish 31% Other Asian/Pacific 1% Vietnamese 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Travis

• 2024 margin: Solid D (+39.3) · D 68.8% · R 29.4% · Other 1.8%
• 2008→2024 swing: +9.9pp toward D · 2008: 29.4pp · 2024: 39.3pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+39.3 2020: D+45.0 2016: D+38.9 2012: D+23.9 2008: D+29.4

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -3.69%
• Current HPI: 192.9499
• Rent YoY: ▼ -1.01%
• Metro: Austin-Round Rock-Georgetown, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

-23.9% since first listed

6 events — show timeline

• 2026-02-16 Price Changed $352,990 Zillow
• 2025-12-24 Price Changed $349,990 Zillow
• 2025-03-29 Price Changed $409,990 Zillow
• 2024-02-13 Price Changed $424,990 Zillow
• 2024-02-07 Price Changed $465,990 Zillow
• 2023-11-09 Listed $463,990 Zillow