18813 Pilot Mills Dr · Noblesville, IN 46062

$315,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,444 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 1 Days on market

Built 2005 7,841 sqft lot Est $299k · 5% over $43/mo HOA · 2% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +11.2/30.0
• ARV discount +5.1/15.0
• Schools +4.8/10.0
• Livability +4.3/5.0
• Rent growth +3.5/5.0
• DSCR +3.3/10.0
• 1% rule +2.8/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

This 3 bed/2 bath home in desirable Mill Grove just hit the market! Kitchen is updated with white cabinets, white subway tile, SS appliances, custom wood bar top and granite counters. The living room has a beautiful entertainment center that stays along with a wood burning fireplace. Luxury vinyl plank floors, new neutral paint and updated light fixtures throughout the home! Master bedroom with walk in closet, master bathroom has great counter space and double sinks. Outside has a gorgeous new stamped concrete patio, fire pit and pergola. The amenities of Mill Grove include a pool, playground, basketball court, walking trails that connect to the Midland Trace Trail, and social events throughout the year. Make this beautiful home yours!

Key facts

• Custom wood bar top
• Granite countertops
• 7,841 sq ft lot

Tags

• LUXURY VINYL PLANK FLOORS
• WOOD BURNING FIREPLACE
• WHITE SUBWAY TILE BACKSPLASH
• GRANITE COUNTERTOPS
• STAINLESS STEEL APPLIANCES
• CUSTOM WOOD BAR TOP

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Lot approximately 0.18 acres (< 1/4 acre)
• HOA & community: Homeowners association with annual fee; Annual HOA fee of $520; HOA governs covenants & restrictions; Community amenities: pool, playground, basketball court, jogging path; HOA fee covers entrance/common areas, maintenance, park/playground, management, snow removal

Exterior

• Parking: Attached garage; 2-car garage; Garage with keyless entry and garage door opener; Guest street parking
• Utilities: Public water; Municipal sewer; Cable connected; Natural gas available; No solid waste service indicated
• Home design: Single-family residence; One story; Faces east; Ownership interest: Other/See Remarks
• Construction: Vinyl siding; Slab foundation
• Exterior features: Patio; Gazebo; Full privacy fence; Sidewalks; Suburban setting with small trees

Interior

• Kitchen: Electric oven; Convection oven; Microwave; Dishwasher; Refrigerator; Disposal; Pantry; Eat-in kitchen
• Bedrooms: Three main-level bedrooms; Primary bedroom with walk-in closet
• Bathrooms: Two full bathrooms; Primary bathroom with double sinks and a full shower stall
• Heating & cooling: Heat pump and electric heating; Central air conditioning; Heat pump for cooling
• Interior features: Vaulted ceilings; Attic with pull-down stairs; Walk-in closet(s); Painted woodwork; Eat-in kitchen; Pantry; Smart thermostat; Smoke alarm
• Laundry & utility: Main-level laundry; Washer; Dryer; Water softener (owned); Electric water heater

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $315k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-121 ($-1k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $294k (6.8% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $245k (22.2% below list).
• Recommended offer: $245k (22.2% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 5.8% vs local median 3.2% in Noblesville — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 86/100 on livability (#3 in IN, #446 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: crime A+, employment A+, cost of living A+; Watch: commute F.
• Noblesville Schools (suburban): math 51% / reading 57% proficiency, ranked #26 of 301 in IN (top 9%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease; only 18% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+3.8%/yr); 414 active listings in the ZIP; 6 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 24d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); high-income renter base; 4,661 units permitted in Hamilton County in 2024 (1,528 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $9k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Hamilton County population projected at +44% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• Only 1 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• 6 sale attempts since 16y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $200k; list at $315k implies a 57% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Recommended offer $245,151 (22.2% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.78% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.83%
• Cash-on-cash: -1.65%
• DSCR: 0.93
• GRM: 10.7

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $298,908
• Comps found: 5

Show comp detail 5 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
18760 Pilot Mills Dr	0.07mi	3/2.0	1,430 (-1%)	12mo	$316,000	$221	85
18875 Pilot Mills Dr	0.08mi	3/2.0	1,406 (-3%)	14mo	$310,000	$220	80
18653 Pilot Mills Dr	0.17mi	3/2.0	1,406 (-3%)	20mo	$291,000	$207	71
19146 Carol Cove Cir	0.63mi	3/2.0	1,560 (+8%)	11mo	$315,000	$202	48
19270 Sandbar Dr	0.72mi	3/2.0	1,628 (+13%)	19mo	$333,000	$205	30

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.8% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -18.2%
• Equity multiple: 0.36×
• Total profit: $-56,793
• Equity at exit: $46,968

10-year hold

• IRR: -9.1%
• Equity multiple: 0.42×
• Total profit: $-51,224
• Equity at exit: $27,235

Cash invested: $88,200 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Indiana: 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+11
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

10-day pay-or-quit; landlord-favorable; preempted.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 46062

• Rents YoY: 3.8%
• Active inventory: 414
• Price-to-rent: 10.7×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,452 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,652
• Tax from tax record: −$231 /mo · $2,778/yr
• Insurance: −$131
• HOA: −$43
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$515
• Net cashflow: $-121

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,605

Max offer price $293,637

Occupancy floor 100%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $78,750
• Closing costs: $9,450
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 6 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
14744 Malachi RD Noblesville, IN	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	1174	$3,147	$2.68	1d	124	0.66mi
14744 Malachi RD Noblesville, IN	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	1174	$3,257	$2.77	43d	30	0.66mi
6626 Crossbridge Dr Noblesville, IN	3.0	2.0	1664	$2,200	$1.32	43d	1	0.90mi
17754 Copse Dr Noblesville, IN	2.0–3.0	1.0–1.5	1208	$1,650	$1.37	23d	7	1.10mi
5475 Winding River Rd Noblesville, IN	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	834	$1,653	$1.98	1d	13	1.18mi
4768 Beach Club Dr Westfield, IN	3.0	2.5	1828	$2,185	$1.20	1d	1	1.47mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $43 · $516/yr
• Likely covers: pool

Listing history 17 events

1. 2026-05-28
   status Pending
2. 2026-05-26
   listed $315,000 Active
3. 2019-06-05
   soldstatus $200,000 Sold 745-char remark

   Show marketing remark (745 chars)

   This 3 bed/2 bath home in desirable Mill Grove just hit the market! Kitchen is updated with white cabinets, white subway tile, SS appliances, custom wood bar top and granite counters. The living room has a beautiful entertainment center that stays along with a wood burning fireplace. Luxury vinyl plank floors, new neutral paint and updated light fixtures throughout the home! Master bedroom with walk in closet, master bathroom has great counter space and double sinks. Outside has a gorgeous new stamped concrete patio, fire pit and pergola. The amenities of Mill Grove include a pool, playground, basketball court, walking trails that connect to the Midland Trace Trail, and social events throughout the year. Make this beautiful home yours!

4. 2019-05-06
   status Pending 745-char remark

   Show marketing remark (745 chars)

   This 3 bed/2 bath home in desirable Mill Grove just hit the market! Kitchen is updated with white cabinets, white subway tile, SS appliances, custom wood bar top and granite counters. The living room has a beautiful entertainment center that stays along with a wood burning fireplace. Luxury vinyl plank floors, new neutral paint and updated light fixtures throughout the home! Master bedroom with walk in closet, master bathroom has great counter space and double sinks. Outside has a gorgeous new stamped concrete patio, fire pit and pergola. The amenities of Mill Grove include a pool, playground, basketball court, walking trails that connect to the Midland Trace Trail, and social events throughout the year. Make this beautiful home yours!

5. 2019-05-03
   listed $209,000 Active 745-char remark

   Show marketing remark (745 chars)

   This 3 bed/2 bath home in desirable Mill Grove just hit the market! Kitchen is updated with white cabinets, white subway tile, SS appliances, custom wood bar top and granite counters. The living room has a beautiful entertainment center that stays along with a wood burning fireplace. Luxury vinyl plank floors, new neutral paint and updated light fixtures throughout the home! Master bedroom with walk in closet, master bathroom has great counter space and double sinks. Outside has a gorgeous new stamped concrete patio, fire pit and pergola. The amenities of Mill Grove include a pool, playground, basketball court, walking trails that connect to the Midland Trace Trail, and social events throughout the year. Make this beautiful home yours!

6. 2018-10-25
   soldstatus $197,500 Sold 523-char remark

   Show marketing remark (523 chars)

   Beautiful home with Great Location near dining/retail. This &quot;smart&quot; home features a secure BT enabled front door, garage door, &amp; thermostat. Huge vaulted ceiling, Fireplace, Open Layout, New luxury vinyl plank floors, &amp; many more updates! All new SS appliances, Unique custom Bartop in kitchen, Great access from the backyard to the oversized walking trails that connect to the new Midland Trace Trail. New stamped concrete patio &amp; pergola. Neighborhood pool &amp; playground, plus high rated schools.

7. 2018-09-24
   status Pending 523-char remark

   Show marketing remark (523 chars)

   Beautiful home with Great Location near dining/retail. This &quot;smart&quot; home features a secure BT enabled front door, garage door, &amp; thermostat. Huge vaulted ceiling, Fireplace, Open Layout, New luxury vinyl plank floors, &amp; many more updates! All new SS appliances, Unique custom Bartop in kitchen, Great access from the backyard to the oversized walking trails that connect to the new Midland Trace Trail. New stamped concrete patio &amp; pergola. Neighborhood pool &amp; playground, plus high rated schools.

8. 2018-09-20
   price $193,900 523-char remark

   Show marketing remark (523 chars)

   Beautiful home with Great Location near dining/retail. This &quot;smart&quot; home features a secure BT enabled front door, garage door, &amp; thermostat. Huge vaulted ceiling, Fireplace, Open Layout, New luxury vinyl plank floors, &amp; many more updates! All new SS appliances, Unique custom Bartop in kitchen, Great access from the backyard to the oversized walking trails that connect to the new Midland Trace Trail. New stamped concrete patio &amp; pergola. Neighborhood pool &amp; playground, plus high rated schools.

9. 2018-09-07
   listed $199,900 Active 523-char remark

   Show marketing remark (523 chars)

   Beautiful home with Great Location near dining/retail. This &quot;smart&quot; home features a secure BT enabled front door, garage door, &amp; thermostat. Huge vaulted ceiling, Fireplace, Open Layout, New luxury vinyl plank floors, &amp; many more updates! All new SS appliances, Unique custom Bartop in kitchen, Great access from the backyard to the oversized walking trails that connect to the new Midland Trace Trail. New stamped concrete patio &amp; pergola. Neighborhood pool &amp; playground, plus high rated schools.

10. 2012-02-01
    historical
11. 2012-01-31
    soldstatus $117,500
12. 2011-06-06
    listed $124,900
13. 2011-03-25
    historical
14. 2011-03-24
    soldstatus $102,000
15. 2010-10-16
    historical
16. 2010-10-14
    listed $114,900
17. 2010-04-27
    listed $90,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast IN · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $2,778 · $231/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,778 · $231/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 4/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥102°F today · 18 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low 100% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 4/10 Moderate 3 unhealthy d/yr today · 5 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $29,418
• − Mortgage interest: −$17,645
• − Property taxes: −$2,778
• − Insurance: −$1,575
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,353
• − Management: −$2,353
• − HOA: −$516
• − Depreciation: −$9,164
• Taxable loss: −$6,966
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,672
• After-tax cash flow: $221/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Noblesville Schools
• NCES district ID: 1807650
• Math proficiency: 51% ▼ -12.00%
• Reading proficiency: 57% ▼ -8.00%
• Median HH income: $71,719
• Composite: 48.16/100
• National rank: #2177
• State rank: #26 of 301 in IN

Livability — Noblesville

• Score: 86/100
• State rank: #3
• US rank: #446

Category grades

Amenities C+ Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A+ Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Noblesville, IN
• County: Hamilton County · 337,479 people
• City population: 88,670
• Metro: Indianapolis-Carmel-Anderson, IN
• Population (ZIP): 41,060
• Household income: $120,100
• Rent vs Own: 21.4% rent · 78.6% own
• Severe rent burden: 401.0

Population outlook (Hamilton County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 381,938 people
• By 2030: 417,496 · +9.3%
• By 2040: 486,684 · +27.4%
• By 2050: 549,805 · +44.0%
• By 2075: 687,078 · +79.9%
• By 2100: 754,495 · +97.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (85%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 85% Black 5% Two or more races 4% Hispanic / Latino 4% Asian 3%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 3% Slovak 3% Italian 2%
• Foreign-born: 6% · Canada, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 94% English-only · Other Indo-European 2% Spanish 1% Other Asian/Pacific 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Hamilton

• 2024 margin: Lean R (+6.1) · D 46.0% · R 52.1% · Other 1.9%
• 2008→2024 swing: +16.2pp toward D · 2008: -22.2pp · 2024: -6.1pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+6.1 2020: R+6.8 2016: R+19.6 2012: R+34.3 2008: R+22.2

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -177.18%
• Current HPI: 227.776
• Rent YoY: ▲ 3.80%
• Metro: Indianapolis-Carmel-Anderson, IN
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.90%
• F500 in state: 18

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in IN)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Machinery	2	$37B
▸Healthcare	1	$177B
▸Pharmaceuticals	1	$45B
▸Metals / Steel	1	$18B
▸Agriculture	1	$17B
▸Packaging	1	$12B

Price history

+250.0% since first listed

17 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-28 Pending — MIBOR as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-05-26 Listed $315,000 MIBOR as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2019-06-05 Sold (MLS) $200,000 MIBOR as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2019-05-06 Pending — MIBOR as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2019-05-03 Listed $209,000 MIBOR as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2018-10-25 Sold (MLS) $197,500 MIBOR as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2018-09-24 Pending — MIBOR as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2018-09-20 Price Changed $193,900 MIBOR as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2018-09-07 Listed $199,900 MIBOR as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2012-02-01 Listing Removed — MIBOR as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2012-01-31 Sold (MLS) $117,500 MIBOR as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2011-06-06 Listed $124,900 MIBOR as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2011-03-25 Listing Removed — MIBOR as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2011-03-24 Sold (MLS) $102,000 MIBOR as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2010-10-16 Listing Removed — MIBOR as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2010-10-14 Listed $114,900 MIBOR as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2010-04-27 Listed $90,000 MIBOR as Distributed by MLS Grid

Property tax history

+5.8%/yr

Latest (2025): $2,778 · -6.1% YoY. Source: county tax records.