407 W Miller St · Appleton City, MO 64724

$135,000

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,372 sqft · Other public records · 126 Days on market

Built 1930 7,000 sqft lot $98/sqft · at area comps Est $152k · 11% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the C- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +15.9/30.0
• ARV discount +12.4/15.0
• DSCR +4.9/10.0
• Appreciation +3.5/10.0
• 1% rule +3.1/10.0
• Livability +3.1/5.0
• Schools +3.0/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks MLS

NEW LISTING! Charming 3 Bedroom 1 Bath 1930s-Built Craftsman Style Home Offering Beautiful Original Woodwork & Doors Throughout, New Replacement Windows Provide Upgraded Efficiency & Lots of Natural Light, Outdoor Space that Includes a Relaxing Covered Front Porch, Spacious Back Deck, & Chain-Link Fenced Backyard, Covered Parking w/ an 18'x20' Outbuilding, Character & Style w/ Some Modern Renovations make this Home a Great Buy at $135,000! All information is deemed reliable but not guaranteed.

Key facts

• Covered front porch
• Spacious back deck
• Covered parking

Tags

• ORIGINAL WOODWORK
• REPLACEMENT WINDOWS
• COVERED FRONT PORCH
• SPACIOUS BACK DECK
• CHAIN-LINK FENCED BACKYARD
• COVERED PARKING

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath other listed at $135k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $63 ($761/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $110k (18.7% below list).
• Recommended offer: $110k (18.7% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 61/100 on livability (#448 in MO) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, crime B+; Watch: schools C-, amenities F, commute F.
• Appleton City R-II (rural): math 30% / reading 35% proficiency, ranked #434 of 535 in MO (top 81%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 4 active listings in the ZIP; 3 units permitted in St. Clair County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $933 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• St. Clair County population projected at -22% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 126 days — a 12% lower offer ($119k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1930 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.

Recommended offer $109,738 (18.7% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 126 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 19% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1930 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.81% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.86%
• Cash-on-cash: 2.01%
• DSCR: 1.09
• GRM: 10.3

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $151,570
• List price: $135,000
• Delta: -10.93%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 9 within 1.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -13.2%
• Equity multiple: 0.53×
• Total profit: $-17,902
• Equity at exit: $20,129

10-year hold

• IRR: -4.3%
• Equity multiple: 0.72×
• Total profit: $-10,646
• Equity at exit: $11,672

Cash invested: $37,800 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 81 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Missouri: 81 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Generally landlord-friendly; St Louis has some habitability requirements.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 64724

• Home prices YoY: -1.6%
• Active inventory: 4
• Price-to-rent: 10.3×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,097 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$708
• Tax from tax record: −$39 /mo · $472/yr
• Insurance: −$56
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$230
• Net cashflow: $63

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,017

Max offer price $135,000

Occupancy floor 89%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $140	-5% $102	+0% $63	+5% $25	+10% $-13
Rent	-10% $-23	-5% $20	+0% $63	+5% $107	+10% $150
Rate	-1.0pp $131	-0.5pp $98	base $63	+0.5pp $28	+1.0pp $-7

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $33,750
• Closing costs: $4,050
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 16 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $135,000 Active 126 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $135,000 Active 124 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $135,000 Active 123 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $135,000 Active 122 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $135,000 Active 121 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $135,000 Active 119 DOM
7. 2026-06-12
   days on market $135,000 Active 118 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $135,000 Active 115 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $135,000 Active 114 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $135,000 Active 113 DOM
11. 2026-06-05
    days on market $135,000 Active 111 DOM
12. 2026-06-04
    days on market $135,000 Active 109 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $135,000 Active 108 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $135,000 Active 107 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $135,000 Active 106 DOM
16. 2026-02-13
    listed $135,000 Active 521-char remark

    Show marketing remark (521 chars)

    NEW LISTING! Charming 3 Bedroom 1 Bath 1930s-Built Craftsman Style Home Offering Beautiful Original Woodwork & Doors Throughout, New Replacement Windows Provide Upgraded Efficiency & Lots of Natural Light, Outdoor Space that Includes a Relaxing Covered Front Porch, Spacious Back Deck, & Chain-Link Fenced Backyard, Covered Parking w/ an 18'x20' Outbuilding, Character & Style w/ Some Modern Renovations make this Home a Great Buy at $135,000! All information is deemed reliable but not guaranteed.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast MO · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $472 · $39/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,310 · $109/mo
• Expected delta: +$837/yr (+$70/mo · 177.4%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 4/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥108°F today · 18 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low 2% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $13,169
• − Mortgage interest: −$7,562
• − Property taxes: −$472
• − Insurance: −$675
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,053
• − Management: −$1,053
• − Depreciation: −$3,927
• Taxable loss: −$1,575
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$378
• After-tax cash flow: $1,139/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Appleton City R-II
• NCES district ID: 2903120
• Math proficiency: 30% ▬ 0.00%
• Reading proficiency: 35% ▬ 0.00%
• Median HH income: $36,647
• Composite: 29.72/100
• National rank: #11732
• State rank: #434 of 535 in MO

Livability — Appleton City

• Score: 61/100
• State rank: #448
• US rank: #18256

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime B+ Employment F Housing B- Health & safety F User ratings B-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Appleton City, MO
• Population (ZIP): 1,942

Population outlook (St. Clair County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 8,710 people
• By 2030: 8,281 · -4.9%
• By 2040: 7,481 · -14.1%
• By 2050: 6,814 · -21.8%
• By 2075: 5,836 · -33.0%
• By 2100: 4,989 · -42.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (94%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 94% Two or more races 4% Hispanic / Latino 3%
• Common ancestry: Portuguese 3% Iranian 1% Italian 1%
• Foreign-born: 1% · Canada
• Languages at home: 99% English-only · Spanish 1%

Political lean MEDSL · St. Clair

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+60.6) · D 19.2% · R 79.8%
• 2008→2024 swing: -38.7pp toward R · 2008: -21.9pp · 2024: -60.6pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+60.6 2020: R+59.2 2016: R+55.4 2012: R+33.7 2008: R+21.9

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -3.09%
• Current HPI: 196.2056
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.84%
• F500 in state: 20

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in MO)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	1	$163B
▸Insurance	1	$21B
▸Industrial Technology	1	$17B
▸Retail	1	$16B
▸Industrial Distribution	1	$10B
▸Utilities	1	$9B

Price history

1 event — show timeline

• 2026-02-13 Listed $135,000 WCAR

Property tax history

+1.8%/yr

Latest (2025): $472 · +9.5% YoY. Source: county tax records.