9 White Birch Ln · Remsenburg-Speonk, NY 11960

$729,000

3 bd · 1.5 ba · 1,470 sqft · SingleFamily · 20 Days on market

Built 1965 Good condition 9,148 sqft lot $496/sqft · 31% below area Est $1054k · 31% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the A grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• Appreciation +8.9/10.0
• Schools +4.8/10.0
• Condition / age +3.8/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Livability +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks

Nestled in charming Remsenburg on a . 21-acre lot, this 3-4 bedroom, one-and-a-half-bath home offers a great opportunity to bring your vision and personal touch. Step through the front door into the living room featuring original hardwood flooring, which flows into the welcoming eat-in kitchen. The main floor also offers a full bath, one bedroom, and a family room with sliding doors leading to the fenced-in backyard. Upstairs, you’ll find two additional bedrooms and a half bath, with room to create a full bath. Selling as-is. The home features oil heat, 150-amp electrical service, and an unfinished basement. Plus, the fenced-in yard offers privacy. Located in the Remsenburg-Speonk Sch

Key facts

• Unfinished basement
• Fenced-in backyard
• 9,148 sq ft lot

Tags

• ORIGINAL HARDWOOD FLOORING
• FENCED-IN BACKYARD
• 150-AMP ELECTRICAL SERVICE
• UNFINISHED BASEMENT

Property features AI

Exterior

• Parking: Driveway parking for 3 vehicles
• Utilities: Electricity connected (PSEG); Water connected; Cesspool sewer
• Home design: Single family residence; Two levels
• Construction: Frame construction
• Exterior features: Back yard fencing; Not waterfront

Interior

• Kitchen: Range; Dishwasher; Refrigerator
• Bedrooms: Two-level home (bedrooms on main levels)
• Flooring: Carpet; Wood; Vinyl; Other
• Bathrooms: 1 full bathroom; 1 half bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Oil heating; No central air
• Interior features: First-floor bedroom; First-floor full bathroom; Unfinished basement
• Laundry & utility: Washer; Dryer; Tankless water heater

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.5-bath single-family listed at $729k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $6k ($77k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($14k rent vs $729k).
• Recommended offer: $718k (1.5% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 16.8% vs local median 6.1% in Remsenburg-Speonk — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads: area grade A — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• Remsenburg-Speonk Union Free School District (suburban): math 60% / reading 40% proficiency, ranked #389 of 755 in NY (top 52%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease; only 10% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Zoned schools: Remsenburg-Speonk Elementary School (math 52% / reading 62%, grade C+, #842 of 2,108 statewide, top 43%, 122 students, 36% FRL) — zoned schools average 36% FRL vs 10% district-wide (27 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: 41 active listings in the ZIP; 3 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 26d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 1,366 units permitted in Suffolk County in 2024 (216 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $62k of equity ($5k loan paydown + $57k appreciation (7.8% local appreciation)).
• Suffolk County population projected to shrink 5% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
• At projected returns (7.8% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $204k cash investment doubles in ~2 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$99k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 20 days — a 2% lower offer ($718k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 80% chance of damaging wind over 30y — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $718,065 (1.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1965 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
4. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
5. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.98% ✓
• Cap rate: 16.81%
• Cash-on-cash: 37.55%
• DSCR: 2.67
• GRM: 4.2

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $1,053,734
• List price: $729,000
• Delta: -30.82%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 4 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
15 Crest Dr	0.08mi	3/2.0	1,600 (+9%)	7mo	$613,500	$383	74
17 Heather Dr	0.06mi	3/2.5	1,650 (+12%)	1mo	$1,350,000	$818	72
29 Halsey Rd	0.53mi	3/2.0	1,480 (+1%)	16mo	$705,000	$476	59
57 Halsey Rd	0.72mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,300 (-12%)	18mo	$800,000	$615	25

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

7.81% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 50.1%
• Equity multiple: 4.42×
• Total profit: $698,435
• Equity at exit: $544,376

10-year hold

• IRR: 45.5%
• Equity multiple: 9.45×
• Total profit: $1,724,408
• Equity at exit: $1,071,677

Cash invested: $204,120 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State New York: 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

NYC rent stabilization (~1M units); 2019 HSTPA strengthened tenant rights; courts deeply backlogged.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 11960

• Home prices YoY: 2.1%
• Active inventory: 41
• Price-to-rent: 4.2×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $14,462 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$3,823
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$911 /mo · $10,935/yr
• Insurance: −$304
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$3,037
• Net cashflow: $6,387

Break-even live

Break-even rent $6,377

Max offer price $729,000

Occupancy floor 51%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $6,891	-5% $6,639	+0% $6,387	+5% $6,135	+10% $5,883
Rent	-10% $5,245	-5% $5,816	+0% $6,387	+5% $6,958	+10% $7,530
Rate	-1.0pp $6,754	-0.5pp $6,573	base $6,387	+0.5pp $6,198	+1.0pp $6,006

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $182,250
• Closing costs: $21,870
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 3 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
70 Jagger Ln Westhampton, NY	3.0	2.0	1850	$20,000	$10.81	0d	1	0.65mi
21 Summit Blvd Westhampton, NY	2.0	2.0	1200	$15,000	$12.50	44d	1	1.24mi
152 Old Country Rd Westhampton, NY	2.0	1.0	1200	$3,500	$2.92	25d	1	1.26mi

Listing history 7 events

1. 2026-06-07
   status $729,000 Pending 20 DOM
2. 2026-06-04
   days on market $729,000 Active 20 DOM
3. 2026-06-03
   days on market $729,000 Active 19 DOM
4. 2026-06-02
   days on market $729,000 Active 18 DOM
5. 2026-06-01
   days on market $729,000 Active 17 DOM
6. 2026-05-31
   days on market $729,000 Active 16 DOM
7. 2026-05-15
   listed $729,000 Active 942-char remark

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 4/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥90°F today · 19 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 80% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 4/10 Moderate 4 unhealthy d/yr today · 5 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $173,547
• − Mortgage interest: −$40,835
• − Property taxes: −$10,935
• − Insurance: −$3,645
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$13,884
• − Management: −$13,884
• − Depreciation: −$21,207
• Taxable income: $69,157
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$16,598
• After-tax cash flow: $60,049/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 20 photos

Good 75/100 Cosmetic rehab

This charming 3-bedroom home is in good condition with a good condition score of 75. It offers a great opportunity to bring your vision and personal touch. The home is move-in ready with minor cosmetic updates that would significantly increase its resale and rental value.

Value-add opportunities

• Resale Paint exterior — Enhances curb appeal and home value
• Both Replace windows — Improves energy efficiency and aesthetics
• Resale Update kitchen backsplash — Modernizes kitchen and adds value
• Both Install smart home devices — Enhances comfort and energy efficiency

Renovation cost estimate screening

Value-add ROI direction

• Resale Paint exterior — Enhances curb appeal and home value ↑
• Both Replace windows — Improves energy efficiency and aesthetics ↑
• Resale Update kitchen backsplash — Modernizes kitchen and adds value ↑
• Both Install smart home devices — Enhances comfort and energy efficiency ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Remsenburg-Speonk Union Free School District
• NCES district ID: 3624420
• Math proficiency: 60% ▲ 10.00%
• Reading proficiency: 40% ▼ -10.00%
• Median HH income: $79,972
• Composite: 47.7/100
• National rank: #4915
• State rank: #389 of 755 in NY

Livability — Remsenburg-Speonk

No livability data for this city. (Only ~50 U.S. cities are tracked.)

Census & demographics

• Census place: Remsenburg-Speonk, NY
• City population: 1,346
• Population (ZIP): 1,037

Population outlook (Suffolk County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,505,262 people
• By 2030: 1,498,318 · -0.5%
• By 2040: 1,471,101 · -2.3%
• By 2050: 1,424,848 · -5.3%
• By 2075: 1,337,157 · -11.2%
• By 2100: 1,217,720 · -19.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (100%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 100%
• Common ancestry: Iranian 9% Romanian 8% Scotch-Irish 1%
• Foreign-born: 3%

Political lean MEDSL · Suffolk

• 2024 margin: Lean R (+10.0) · D 45.0% · R 55.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -16.0pp toward R · 2008: 6.0pp · 2024: -10.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+10.0 2020: R+0.0 2016: R+8.2 2012: D+2.9 2008: D+6.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 7.81%
• Current HPI: 386.454
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.60%
• F500 in state: 92

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	10	$950B
▸Consumer Goods	9	$162B
▸Insurance	4	$225B
▸Telecommunications	2	$144B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$112B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$69B

Price history

2 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-04 Pending — OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-05-15 Listed $729,000 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid