14074 Irishtown #12 · Pine Grove, CA 95665

$179,000

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,042 sqft · Manufactured · 135 Days on market

Built 2024 Good condition $172/sqft · 15% above area Est $155k · 15% over

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +17.6/30.0
• DSCR +5.5/10.0
• 1% rule +4.7/10.0
• Condition / age +4.0/5.0
• Livability +3.0/5.0
• Schools +2.7/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• ARV discount +0.6/15.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

This brand-new home, built in 2024, offers a perfect blend of modern living and tranquil surroundings, located in a sought-after 55 and over community. Surrounded by trees and nature, the home features an open-concept layout with a spacious living room that seamlessly flows into the kitchen. Large windows and recessed lighting throughout bring in an abundance of natural light, creating a warm and inviting atmosphere. The kitchen is designed for both functionality and style, with sleek laminate countertops, a stainless steel gas range with matching hood, a dishwasher, and a refrigerator. Adjacent to the kitchen, the laundry room offers electric dryer hookups and plenty of space to add extra

Key facts

• Large windows
• Recessed lighting
• Laminate countertops

Tags

• OPEN-CONCEPT LAYOUT
• SPACIOUS LIVING ROOM
• LARGE WINDOWS
• RECESSED LIGHTING
• LAMINATE COUNTERTOPS
• STAINLESS STEEL GAS RANGE

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $179k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $141 ($2k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $174k (2.6% below list).
• Recommended offer: $158k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 7.2% vs local median 2.4% in Pine Grove — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 60/100 on livability (#612 in CA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: housing A, crime A-; Watch: schools D+, amenities F, commute F.
• Amador County Unified (town): math 23% / reading 37% proficiency, ranked #330 of 517 in CA (top 64%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 49 active listings in the ZIP; 3 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 21d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 66 units permitted in Amador County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $5k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Amador County population projected at -15% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 135 days — a 12% lower offer ($158k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→15/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $157,520 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 135 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.97% ✗
• Cap rate: 7.24%
• Cash-on-cash: 3.37%
• DSCR: 1.15
• GRM: 8.6

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $155,091
• List price: $179,000
• Delta: 15.42%
• Verdict: OVERPRICED
• Comps: 4 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 1 sale within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
14074 Irishtown Rd #19	0.13mi	2/2.0	1,152 (+11%)	12mo	$180,000	$156	66

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -11.0%
• Equity multiple: 0.60×
• Total profit: $-20,006
• Equity at exit: $26,689

10-year hold

• IRR: -1.7%
• Equity multiple: 0.89×
• Total profit: $-5,758
• Equity at exit: $15,477

Cash invested: $50,120 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State California: 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+13
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

AB1482 statewide rent cap (10% + CPI). Cities (SF/LA/Berkeley) layer stricter rules. Just-cause statewide.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 95665

• Active inventory: 49
• Price-to-rent: 8.6×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,744 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$939
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$224 /mo · $2,685/yr
• Insurance: −$75
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$366
• Net cashflow: $141

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,566

Max offer price $179,000

Occupancy floor 87%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $265	-5% $203	+0% $141	+5% $79	+10% $17
Rent	-10% $3	-5% $72	+0% $141	+5% $210	+10% $279
Rate	-1.0pp $231	-0.5pp $186	base $141	+0.5pp $95	+1.0pp $47

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $44,750
• Closing costs: $5,370
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 3 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
13900 Ponderosa Way Pine Grove, CA	2.0	1.0	800	$1,495	$1.87	21d	1	0.97mi
13900 Ponderosa Way Pine Grove, CA	3.0	2.0	1100	$1,995	$1.81	45d	1	0.97mi
13931 Ponderosa Way Pine Grove, CA	1.0	2.0	1000	$1,695	$1.70	21d	1	0.99mi

Listing history 15 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $179,000 Active 135 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $179,000 Active 132 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $179,000 Active 131 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $179,000 Active 130 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $179,000 Active 129 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $179,000 Active 127 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $179,000 Active 126 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $179,000 Active 123 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $179,000 Active 122 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $179,000 Active 121 DOM
11. 2026-06-05
    days on market $179,000 Active 118 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    days on market $179,000 Active 117 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $179,000 Active 116 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $179,000 Active 115 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $179,000 Active 114 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 8/10 Severe
• 🌡 Heat 5/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥100°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 10/10 Extreme 30 unhealthy d/yr today · 32 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $20,931
• − Mortgage interest: −$10,027
• − Property taxes: −$2,685
• − Insurance: −$895
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,674
• − Management: −$1,674
• − Depreciation: −$5,207
• Taxable loss: −$1,232
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$296
• After-tax cash flow: $1,987/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 12 photos

Good 80/100 Cosmetic rehab

This brand-new 2024 manufactured home is in excellent condition with a good condition score of 80. It offers a modern open-concept layout and is located in a sought-after 55 and over community. The home is move-in ready with minimal maintenance required.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Paint exterior siding — Enhances curb appeal and value
• Resale Replace carpet with hardwood flooring — Hardwood flooring is more durable and aesthetically pleasing
• Both Install smart home technology — Improves energy efficiency and adds modern amenities

Renovation cost estimate screening

Value-add ROI direction

• Both Paint exterior siding — Enhances curb appeal and value ↑
• Resale Replace carpet with hardwood flooring — Hardwood flooring is more durable and aesthetically pleasing ↑
• Both Install smart home technology — Improves energy efficiency and adds modern amenities ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Amador County Unified
• NCES district ID: 0602450
• Math proficiency: 23% ▼ -9.00%
• Reading proficiency: 37% ▼ -10.00%
• Median HH income: $55,428
• Composite: 26.67/100
• National rank: #7163
• State rank: #330 of 517 in CA

Livability — Pine Grove

• Score: 60/100
• State rank: #612
• US rank: #19489

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living F Crime A- Employment C+ Housing A Health & safety F User ratings A-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Pine Grove, CA
• City population: 4,903
• Population (ZIP): 4,903

Population outlook (Amador County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 35,295 people
• By 2030: 34,147 · -3.3%
• By 2040: 31,618 · -10.4%
• By 2050: 29,913 · -15.2%
• By 2075: 27,308 · -22.6%
• By 2100: 23,465 · -33.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (83%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 83% Two or more races 13% Hispanic / Latino 11%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 6%
• Common ancestry: Serbian 5% Lithuanian 4% Romanian 3%
• Foreign-born: 2% · Canada, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 96% English-only · Spanish 3%

Political lean MEDSL · Amador

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+27.8) · D 34.7% · R 62.6% · Other 2.7%
• 2008→2024 swing: -13.2pp toward R · 2008: -14.6pp · 2024: -27.8pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+27.8 2020: R+24.4 2016: R+25.2 2012: R+19.0 2008: R+14.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -150.01%
• Current HPI: 138.6991
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.21%
• F500 in state: 116

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in CA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	27	$1,492B
▸Financial Services	3	$174B
▸Retail	3	$44B
▸Insurance	3	$26B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$115B
▸Pharmaceuticals / Biotech	2	$62B