148 Goat Trl · Angels, CA 95222

$184,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,120 sqft · Manufactured · 138 Days on market

Built 2023 6,000 sqft lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• 1% rule +8.5/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +4.5/10.0
• Livability +3.5/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Brand new, never been lived in, 3 bedroom/2 bath home, 1120 square feet, with stainless steel applicances, including a refrigerator with water and ice in the door, microwave, gas range w/ hood, dishwasher, and disposal. Low threshold walk-in shower in the master bath. Carpet and wood laminate flooring. Comes with a one year manuafacture's home warranty. Close by is a large neighborhood shopping center with a supermarket, restaurants, laundromat, and other needed services. Also, the location is close to medical facilities and elementary and high schools are a short walking distance away.

Key facts

• 6,000 sq ft lot
• Garage
• Built 2023

Tags

• STAINLESS STEEL APPLIANCES
• LOW THRESHOLD WALK-IN SHOWER
• CLOSE TO MEDICAL FACILITIES

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Located in Calaveras County, postal code 95222
• Financial info: Land lease amount listed separately (not applicable)
• HOA & community: No homeowners association; Not a senior community; Land lease: no

Exterior

• Parking: Total of 4 parking spaces; Attached covered parking; Carport; Off-street parking; Garage
• Utilities: Underground utilities; Individual gas meter; Individual electric meter; Natural gas plumbed; Cable available; Public sewer; Public water (water district)
• Home design: Manufactured home in park; Double wide; Original and new construction (updated/new elements); Built in 2023; Address: 148 Goat Trl, Angels Camp, CA 95222; Facing and entry directions available locally
• Construction: Wood skirting; Clayton manufactured home (Chm Manufacturing West, Inc.); Shingle roof; Built in 2023
• Exterior features: Shingle roof; Regular-shaped lot

Interior

• Kitchen: Island; Ceramic counters; Dishwasher; Microwave; Free standing gas range; Free standing refrigerator; Ice maker (plumbed)
• Bedrooms: 3 bedrooms
• Flooring: Laminate; Carpet
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms; Tub; Tub with shower over; Low-flow toilets
• Heating & cooling: Central heating; Gas and propane heating options; Central cooling; Ceiling fans
• Interior features: Dishwasher; Disposal; Free standing gas range; Free standing refrigerator; Ice maker; Microwave; Plumbed for ice maker; Gas water heater; Insulation, roof, windows, thermostat and appliances included in energy-efficient features; Fireplace (other type); Window screens; Dual-pane full windows; Unfurnished
• Laundry & utility: Indoor laundry area with hookups; Utility room

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $184k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $687 ($8k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $184k).
• Recommended offer: $162k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 10.8% vs local median 4.4% in Angels — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 69/100 on livability (#265 in CA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: health & safety A+, crime B+, schools B; Watch: amenities F, commute F, cost of living F.
• Bret Harte Union High (town): math 35% / reading 65% proficiency, ranked #429 of 1,400 in CA (top 31%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: 99 active listings in the ZIP; 77 units permitted in Calaveras County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Calaveras County population projected at -18% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $52k cash investment doubles in ~8 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 138 days — a 12% lower offer ($162k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 5→12/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $161,920 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 138 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.35% ✓
• Cap rate: 10.78%
• Cash-on-cash: 16.01%
• DSCR: 1.71
• GRM: 6.2

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 7.0%
• Equity multiple: 1.27×
• Total profit: $14,000
• Equity at exit: $27,435

10-year hold

• IRR: 16.3%
• Equity multiple: 2.33×
• Total profit: $68,715
• Equity at exit: $15,909

Cash invested: $51,520 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State California: 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+13
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

AB1482 statewide rent cap (10% + CPI). Cities (SF/LA/Berkeley) layer stricter rules. Just-cause statewide.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 95222

• Active inventory: 99
• Price-to-rent: 6.2×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,480 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$965
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$230 /mo · $2,760/yr
• Insurance: −$77
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$521
• Net cashflow: $687

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,610

Max offer price $184,000

Occupancy floor 67%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $815	-5% $751	+0% $687	+5% $624	+10% $560
Rent	-10% $491	-5% $589	+0% $687	+5% $785	+10% $883
Rate	-1.0pp $780	-0.5pp $734	base $687	+0.5pp $640	+1.0pp $591

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $46,000
• Closing costs: $5,520
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 16 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $184,000 Active 138 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $184,000 Active 135 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $184,000 Active 134 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $184,000 Active 133 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $184,000 Active 132 DOM
6. 2026-06-14
   days on market $184,000 Active 130 DOM
7. 2026-06-10
   days on market $184,000 Active 127 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $184,000 Active 126 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $184,000 Active 125 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $184,000 Active 124 DOM
11. 2026-06-05
    days on market $184,000 Active 121 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    days on market $184,000 Active 120 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $184,000 Active 119 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $184,000 Active 118 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $184,000 Active 117 DOM
16. 2026-05-30
    days on market $184,000 Active 116 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 8/10 Severe
• 🌡 Heat 6/10 Major 5 d/yr ≥102°F today · 12 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 10/10 Extreme 27 unhealthy d/yr today · 31 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $29,756
• − Mortgage interest: −$10,307
• − Property taxes: −$2,760
• − Insurance: −$920
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,380
• − Management: −$2,380
• − Depreciation: −$5,353
• Taxable income: $5,656
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,357
• After-tax cash flow: $6,891/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Bret Harte Union High
• NCES district ID: 0605940
• Math proficiency: 35% ▲ 5.00%
• Reading proficiency: 65% ▲ 5.00%
• Median HH income: $56,974
• Composite: 45.41/100
• National rank: #5708
• State rank: #429 of 1400 in CA

Livability — Angels

• Score: 69/100
• State rank: #265
• US rank: #8772

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living F Crime B+ Employment B Housing B Health & safety A+ User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Angels, CA
• City population: 164
• Population (ZIP): 5,666

Population outlook (Calaveras County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 43,163 people
• By 2030: 41,703 · -3.4%
• By 2040: 38,202 · -11.5%
• By 2050: 35,385 · -18.0%
• By 2075: 30,807 · -28.6%
• By 2100: 25,755 · -40.3%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (85%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 85% Hispanic / Latino 8% Two or more races 7% Native American 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 5%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 4% Russian 3% Serbian 2%
• Foreign-born: 3% · Canada
• Languages at home: 91% English-only · Spanish 8% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Calaveras

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+28.1) · D 34.7% · R 62.8% · Other 2.5%
• 2008→2024 swing: -15.2pp toward R · 2008: -13.0pp · 2024: -28.1pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+28.1 2020: R+23.8 2016: R+23.9 2012: R+17.0 2008: R+13.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -118.93%
• Current HPI: 137.7432
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.21%
• F500 in state: 116

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in CA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	27	$1,492B
▸Financial Services	3	$174B
▸Retail	3	$44B
▸Insurance	3	$26B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$115B
▸Pharmaceuticals / Biotech	2	$62B