Adams Plan · Conroe, TX 77378

$193,990

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,204 sqft · SingleFamily · 690 Days on market

Excellent condition ↓ 12% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +10.8/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Condition / age +4.8/5.0
• Livability +3.7/5.0
• 1% rule +3.2/10.0
• Schools +3.2/10.0
• DSCR +3.1/10.0
• Rent growth +2.7/5.0
• Appreciation +0.9/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Value-oriented families appreciate the versatility of the single-story Adams, with as many as four bedrooms. A gourmet kitchen with a casual nook adjoining an inviting family room is ideal for family gatherings or entertaining guests. The home's optional covered patio extends the fun outside on mild evenings.

Key facts

• Gourmet kitchen
• Covered patio
• Single-story home

Tags

• SINGLE-STORY HOME
• GOURMET KITCHEN
• COVERED PATIO

🏗️ New construction. The $193,990 list price is a builder figure, so every metric below is computed on the value from comparable previous sales — $237,830.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $194k. Condition is rated excellent.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-109 ($-1k/yr) — negative.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $194k).
• Recommended offer: $171k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 5.7% vs local median 3.1% in Conroe — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 74/100 on livability (#169 in TX, #4,447 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, amenities B; Watch: schools D+, commute F, health & safety F.
• Willis ISD (rural): math 33% / reading 40% proficiency, ranked #458 of 826 in TX (top 55%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: Rents flat; 720 active listings in the ZIP; 2 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 13,259 units permitted in Montgomery County in 2024 (1,402 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 33% of the median local income ($71k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $7k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Montgomery County population projected at +65% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 690 days — a 12% lower offer ($171k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Recommended offer $170,711 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 690 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.82% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.75%
• Cash-on-cash: -1.96%
• DSCR: 0.91
• GRM: 10.2

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $237,830
• List price: $193,990
• Delta: -18.43%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 9 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
10715 Sora Dr	0.05mi	3/2.0	1,204 (0%)	3mo	$227,090	$189	95
410 Starfly Dr	0.09mi	3/2.0	1,204 (0%)	12mo	$224,990	$187	85
10922 Flycatcher Dr	0.11mi	3/2.0	1,204 (0%)	13mo	$255,530	$212	84
10913 Flycatcher Dr	0.15mi	3/2.0	1,204 (0%)	11mo	$230,990	$192	84
419 Starfly Dr	0.13mi	3/2.0	1,204 (0%)	13mo	$223,760	$186	83
10739 Sora Dr	0.10mi	3/2.0	1,240 (+3%)	13mo	$249,090	$201	79
10782 Sora Dr	0.19mi	3/2.0	1,365 (+13%)	3mo	$228,290	$167	66
314 Shady Cedar Hill Ln	0.45mi	3/2.0	1,206 (+0%)	22mo	$214,900	$178	61
976 Oak Falls Dr	0.56mi	3/2.0	1,287 (+7%)	6mo	$205,000	$159	58

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.98% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -21.8%
• Equity multiple: 0.26×
• Total profit: $-49,296
• Equity at exit: $35,461

10-year hold

• IRR: -21.3%
• Equity multiple: -0.01×
• Total profit: $-66,966
• Equity at exit: $20,563

Cash invested: $66,592 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 77378

• Home prices YoY: -3.0%
• Rents YoY: 1.0%
• Active inventory: 720
• Price-to-rent: 8.3×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,943 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,247
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$297 /mo · $3,567/yr
• Insurance: −$99
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$408
• Net cashflow: $-109

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,080

Max offer price $222,118

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $56	-5% $-26	+0% $-109	+5% $-191	+10% $-273
Rent	-10% $-262	-5% $-185	+0% $-109	+5% $-32	+10% $45
Rate	-1.0pp $11	-0.5pp $-48	base $-109	+0.5pp $-170	+1.0pp $-233

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $59,458
• Closing costs: $7,135
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 2 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
314 Harbor Bend Ct Willis, TX	3.0	2.0	1311	$1,800	$1.37	45d	1	1.21mi
27 Lakeway St Conroe, TX	2.0	2.5	1500	$1,400	$0.93	14d	1	1.46mi

Listing history 19 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $193,990 Active 690 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $193,990 Active 687 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $193,990 Active 686 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $193,990 Active 685 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $193,990 Active 684 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $193,990 Active 682 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $193,990 Active 678 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $193,990 Active 677 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $193,990 Active 676 DOM
10. 2026-06-04
    days on market $193,990 Active 673 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $193,990 Active 672 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $193,990 Active 671 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $193,990 Active 670 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $193,990 Active 669 DOM
15. 2026-03-03
    price $193,990 310-char remark

    Show marketing remark (310 chars)

    Value-oriented families appreciate the versatility of the single-story Adams, with as many as four bedrooms. A gourmet kitchen with a casual nook adjoining an inviting family room is ideal for family gatherings or entertaining guests. The home's optional covered patio extends the fun outside on mild evenings.

16. 2026-01-29
    price $191,990 310-char remark

    Show marketing remark (310 chars)

    Value-oriented families appreciate the versatility of the single-story Adams, with as many as four bedrooms. A gourmet kitchen with a casual nook adjoining an inviting family room is ideal for family gatherings or entertaining guests. The home's optional covered patio extends the fun outside on mild evenings.

17. 2025-04-03
    price $221,990 310-char remark

    Show marketing remark (310 chars)

    Value-oriented families appreciate the versatility of the single-story Adams, with as many as four bedrooms. A gourmet kitchen with a casual nook adjoining an inviting family room is ideal for family gatherings or entertaining guests. The home's optional covered patio extends the fun outside on mild evenings.

18. 2024-09-18
    price $220,990 310-char remark

    Show marketing remark (310 chars)

    Value-oriented families appreciate the versatility of the single-story Adams, with as many as four bedrooms. A gourmet kitchen with a casual nook adjoining an inviting family room is ideal for family gatherings or entertaining guests. The home's optional covered patio extends the fun outside on mild evenings.

19. 2024-08-01
    listed $219,990 Active 310-char remark

    Show marketing remark (310 chars)

    Value-oriented families appreciate the versatility of the single-story Adams, with as many as four bedrooms. A gourmet kitchen with a casual nook adjoining an inviting family room is ideal for family gatherings or entertaining guests. The home's optional covered patio extends the fun outside on mild evenings.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $23,317
• − Mortgage interest: −$13,322
• − Property taxes: −$3,567
• − Insurance: −$1,189
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,865
• − Management: −$1,865
• − Depreciation: −$6,919
• Taxable loss: −$5,412
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,299
• After-tax cash flow: $-4/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 3 photos

Excellent 95/100 None rehab

This single-story Adams home in Conroe, TX is in excellent condition with no visible repairs or maintenance needed. It offers a good investment opportunity with high resale and rental potential.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Painting exterior and interior — Enhances curb appeal and interior aesthetics
• Both Landscaping improvements — Enhances curb appeal and adds value
• Both New flooring in bathrooms — Improves aesthetics and adds value
• Both New kitchen appliances — Enhances functionality and adds value

Renovation cost estimate screening

Value-add ROI direction

• Both Painting exterior and interior — Enhances curb appeal and interior aesthetics ↑
• Both Landscaping improvements — Enhances curb appeal and adds value ↑
• Both New flooring in bathrooms — Improves aesthetics and adds value ↑
• Both New kitchen appliances — Enhances functionality and adds value ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Willis ISD
• NCES district ID: 4845900
• Math proficiency: 33% ▼ -15.00%
• Reading proficiency: 40% ▼ -2.00%
• Median HH income: $57,828
• Composite: 32.32/100
• National rank: #5746
• State rank: #458 of 826 in TX

Livability — Conroe

• Score: 74/100
• State rank: #169
• US rank: #4447

Category grades

Amenities B Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime B- Employment B- Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Conroe, TX
• County: Montgomery County · 663,713 people
• City population: 205,417
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• Population (ZIP): 17,629
• Household income: $71,143
• Rent vs Own: 25.5% rent · 74.5% own
• Severe rent burden: 402.0

Population outlook (Montgomery County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 713,896 people
• By 2030: 805,263 · +12.8%
• By 2040: 992,708 · +39.1%
• By 2050: 1,179,590 · +65.2%
• By 2075: 1,628,084 · +128.1%
• By 2100: 1,937,880 · +171.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.55)
• Race & ethnicity: White 58% Hispanic / Latino 32% Two or more races 14% Black 7% Native American 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 27%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 2% Slovak 2% Serbian 1%
• Foreign-born: 12% · Canada
• Languages at home: 80% English-only · Spanish 19%

Political lean MEDSL · Montgomery

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+45.5) · D 26.8% · R 72.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: +7.2pp toward D · 2008: -52.7pp · 2024: -45.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+45.5 2020: R+43.8 2016: R+51.4 2012: R+60.7 2008: R+52.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -8.25%
• Current HPI: 261.9673
• Rent YoY: ▲ 0.98%
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

-11.8% since first listed

5 events — show timeline

• 2026-03-03 Price Changed $193,990 Zillow
• 2026-01-29 Price Changed $191,990 Zillow
• 2025-04-03 Price Changed $221,990 Zillow
• 2024-09-18 Price Changed $220,990 Zillow
• 2024-08-01 Listed $219,990 Zillow