737 E 12th St · Erie, PA 16503

$99,000

7 bd · 3.0 ba · 2,842 sqft · MultiFamily public records · 67 Days on market

Built 1894 0.33 ac lot ↓ 18% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the B+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• Appreciation +7.9/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Livability +4.2/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +1.3/10.0

Multi-family units

County records classify this as Multi-Family (2-4 Unit). Listing-text estimate: 2 units. confirmed

Listing remarks

Investment opportunity for anyone with a vision! This property includes 3 adjacent buildable vacant lots (731, 739, and 741). The duplex's first-floor unit is gutted and ready for renovations. The second-floor unit withstood fire damage and still needs demo work. Cash only sale.

Key facts

• 0.33 acre lot
• Built 1894
• Listed 67 days

Tags

• ADJACENT BUILDABLE LOTS
• FIRST FLOOR UNIT GUTTED
• SECOND FLOOR UNIT FIRE DAMAGE

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2 × 2-bed/1.5-bath units multifamily listed at $99k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $1k ($13k/yr) — positive. Per door: $543/mo.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $99k).
• Recommended offer: $93k (6.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 19.5% vs local median 5.2% in Erie — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 83/100 on livability (#109 in PA, #840 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: amenities A+, commute A+, cost of living A+; Watch: crime D+, employment F.
• Erie City SD (urban): math 12% / reading 19% proficiency, ranked #510 of 539 in PA (top 95%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 81% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: 47 active listings in the ZIP; 364 units permitted in Erie County in 2024 (188 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $6k of equity ($684 loan paydown + $6k appreciation (5.7% local appreciation)).
• Erie County population projected at -14% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (5.7% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $28k cash investment doubles in ~2 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 6, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$34k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 67 days — a 6% lower offer ($93k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1894 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.

Recommended offer $93,060 (6.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 67 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 6% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Can we see the unit-by-unit rent roll, current vacancy, and any below-market leases? What's the average tenancy length?
3. What capital expenditures (roof, boiler, parking lot, exteriors) have been made in the last 5 years, and what's planned in the next 2?
4. Built in 1894 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
5. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
6. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
7. Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new apartment / multifamily construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply (>2% of stock underway) typically softens rents 12–24 months out; light construction supports rent growth.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 2.28% ✓
• Cap rate: 19.47%
• Cash-on-cash: 47.05%
• DSCR: 3.09
• GRM: 3.6

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $65,366
• Comps found: 11

Show comp detail 11 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
653 E 13th St	0.10mi	6/2.0 (-1)	2,776 (-2%)	13mo	$40,000	$14	72
525 & 3110 E 11th & Holland St	0.29mi	7/—	2,792 (-2%)	16mo	$180,000	$64	70
424-426 E 11th St	0.42mi	7/2.0	2,600 (-8%)	1mo	$157,250	$60	61
452-454 E 9th St	0.44mi	6/3.0 (-1)	2,522 (-11%)	3mo	$105,000	$42	53
614 E 22nd St	0.63mi	6/2.0 (-1)	2,736 (-4%)	3mo	$90,000	$33	53
423 E 16 St	0.48mi	6/2.0 (-1)	3,008 (+6%)	9mo	$50,000	$17	51
753-755 E 9th St	0.24mi	6/2.0 (-1)	2,516 (-12%)	14mo	$42,500	$17	49
702 E 23rd St	0.67mi	7/2.0	2,730 (-4%)	19mo	$19,500	$7	42
929 E 21st St	0.62mi	6/3.0 (-1)	2,570 (-10%)	14mo	$59,900	$23	39
555 E 7th St	0.44mi	6/2.0 (-1)	2,456 (-14%)	15mo	$65,000	$26	35
1205 E 8th St	0.64mi	6/3.0 (-1)	3,204 (+13%)	22mo	$60,000	$19	26

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

5.73% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 55.8%
• Equity multiple: 4.47×
• Total profit: $96,267
• Equity at exit: $60,554

10-year hold

• IRR: 52.9%
• Equity multiple: 9.28×
• Total profit: $229,492
• Equity at exit: $108,389

Cash invested: $27,720 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 62 Landlord-Friendly
• State Pennsylvania: 62 Landlord-Friendly · EVEN
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

10-day notice; Philadelphia has eviction-court diversion + some protections; otherwise moderate.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 16503

• Home prices YoY: 4.4%
• Active inventory: 47
• Price-to-rent: 7.3×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,261 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$519
• Tax from tax record: −$139 /mo · $1,667/yr
• Insurance: −$41
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$475
• Net cashflow: $1,087

Break-even live

Break-even rent $885

Max offer price $99,000

Occupancy floor 47%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $1,143	-5% $1,115	+0% $1,087	+5% $1,059	+10% $1,031
Rent	-10% $908	-5% $998	+0% $1,087	+5% $1,176	+10% $1,265
Rate	-1.0pp $1,137	-0.5pp $1,112	base $1,087	+0.5pp $1,061	+1.0pp $1,035

2-unit breakdown (identical units grouped — click to expand)

Units	Beds	Baths	Est. rent
▸ 2× units	2	1.5	$2,262
Total (2 units)			$2,261

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $24,750
• Closing costs: $2,970
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 3 events

1. 2026-04-19
   status Pending
2. 2026-02-27
   price $99,000
3. 2026-02-11
   listed $120,000 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast PA · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $1,667 · $139/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,667 · $139/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 2/10 Low 7 d/yr ≥90°F today · 17 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $27,132
• − Mortgage interest: −$5,546
• − Property taxes: −$1,667
• − Insurance: −$495
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,171
• − Management: −$2,171
• − Depreciation: −$2,880
• Taxable income: $12,203
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$2,929
• After-tax cash flow: $10,113/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Erie City SD
• NCES district ID: 4209300
• Math proficiency: 12% ▼ -11.00%
• Reading proficiency: 19% ▼ -16.00%
• Median HH income: $33,625
• Composite: 12.59/100
• National rank: #9617
• State rank: #510 of 539 in PA

Livability — Erie

• Score: 83/100
• State rank: #109
• US rank: #840

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A+ Cost of living A+ Crime D+ Employment F Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Erie, PA
• City population: 92,215
• Population (ZIP): 15,204

Population outlook (Erie County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 272,159 people
• By 2030: 266,299 · -2.2%
• By 2040: 250,987 · -7.8%
• By 2050: 234,925 · -13.7%
• By 2075: 199,164 · -26.8%
• By 2100: 162,985 · -40.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.65)
• Race & ethnicity: White 45% Black 37% Hispanic / Latino 10% Two or more races 8% Asian 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 2% Puerto Rican 7%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 6% Scotch-Irish 1% Lithuanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 6% · India, Canada
• Languages at home: 90% English-only · Spanish 4% Arabic 2% Other Indo-European 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Erie

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 49.0% · R 50.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -20.9pp toward R · 2008: 19.9pp · 2024: -1.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+1.0 2020: D+1.0 2016: R+2.0 2012: D+16.9 2008: D+19.9

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 5.73%
• Current HPI: 135.5955
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.68%
• F500 in state: 34

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in PA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	2	$309B
▸Insurance	2	$27B
▸Telecommunications / Media	1	$124B
▸Industrial Distribution	1	$22B
▸Financial Services	1	$20B
▸Chemicals / Materials	1	$18B

Price history

-17.5% since first listed

3 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-19 Pending — GEBOR
• 2026-02-27 Price Changed $99,000 GEBOR
• 2026-02-11 Listed $120,000 GEBOR

Property tax history

+1.9%/yr

Latest (2026): $1,667 · +3.4% YoY. Source: county tax records.