28890 Lilac Rd #97 · Valley Center, CA 92082

$239,900

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,344 sqft · Manufactured public records · 123 Days on market

Built 1988 $178/sqft · 41% above area Est $170k · 41% over

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Why this score? — see what drove the C grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• 1% rule +8.5/10.0
• Livability +2.6/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +2.4/10.0
• ARV discount +0.0/15.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Hideaway Lakes is a beautifully maintained gated community located in rural Valley Center, offering scenic surroundings and a peaceful natural rain-fed lake. This home is completely remodeled from top to bottom, offering a fresh, modern living experience with extensive upgrades throughout. Improvements include all-new plumbing and electrical, new drywall and insulation, a new 50-year roof, updated flooring, and fully remodeled bathrooms with new toilets, and showers enclosures. The home also features new interior and exterior doors, new exterior siding, and a beautifully updated kitchen with brand-new cabinetry, sink/faucet, kitchen island, countertops, and appliances. Be the first to enjoy this home since the full renovation, move-in ready and like new!

Key facts

• Gated community
• Updated flooring
• Updated kitchen

Tags

• GATED COMMUNITY
• NATURAL RAIN-FED LAKE
• REMODELED BATHROOMS
• UPDATED FLOORING
• NEW EXTERIOR SIDING
• UPDATED KITCHEN

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $240k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $904 ($11k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($3k rent vs $240k).
• Recommended offer: $211k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 10.8% vs local median 2.5% in Valley Center — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 52/100 on livability (#1,017 in CA) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: employment A+, housing B; Watch: commute C-, schools F, amenities F.
• Valley Center-Pauma Unified (rural): math 16% / reading 34% proficiency, ranked #367 of 517 in CA (top 71%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Market conditions: 165 active listings in the ZIP; high-income renter base; 11,759 units permitted in San Diego County in 2024 (7,244 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 31% of the median local income ($127k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $7k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• San Diego County population projected at +20% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $67k cash investment doubles in ~8 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 123 days — a 12% lower offer ($211k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 4 sale attempts since 3y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $40k; list at $240k implies a 500% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→23/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $211,112 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 123 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.35% ✓
• Cap rate: 10.81%
• Cash-on-cash: 16.14%
• DSCR: 1.72
• GRM: 6.2

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $169,925
• List price: $239,900
• Delta: 41.18%
• Verdict: OVERPRICED
• Comps: 6 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 6 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
28890 Lilac Rd #160	0.00mi	2/2.0	1,248 (-7%)	3mo	$130,000	$104	85
28890 Lilac Rd Spc 167 #167	0.00mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,280 (-5%)	8mo	$239,000	$187	80
28890 Lilac Rd Spc 16 Lot 16	0.37mi	2/2.0	1,325 (-1%)	1mo	$270,000	$204	80
28890 Lilac Rd #108	0.00mi	2/2.0	1,170 (-13%)	6mo	$130,000	$111	73
28890 Lilac Rd #184	0.00mi	2/2.0	1,150 (-14%)	7mo	$213,000	$185	70
28890 Lilac Rd Spc 164 Spc 164	0.37mi	2/2.0	1,440 (+7%)	18mo	$168,500	$117	56

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 7.1%
• Equity multiple: 1.28×
• Total profit: $18,729
• Equity at exit: $35,770

10-year hold

• IRR: 16.5%
• Equity multiple: 2.35×
• Total profit: $90,618
• Equity at exit: $20,742

Cash invested: $67,172 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State California: 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+13
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

AB1482 statewide rent cap (10% + CPI). Cities (SF/LA/Berkeley) layer stricter rules. Just-cause statewide.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 92082

• Active inventory: 165
• Price-to-rent: 6.2×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $3,242 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,258
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$300 /mo · $3,598/yr
• Insurance: −$100
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$681
• Net cashflow: $904

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,099

Max offer price $239,900

Occupancy floor 67%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $59,975
• Closing costs: $7,197
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 26 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $239,900 Active 123 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $239,900 Active 122 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $239,900 Active 121 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $239,900 Active 120 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $239,900 Active 118 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $239,900 Active 117 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $239,900 Active 114 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $239,900 Active 113 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $239,900 Active 112 DOM
10. 2026-06-04
    days on market $239,900 Active 109 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $239,900 Active 108 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $239,900 Active 107 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $239,900 Active 106 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $239,900 Active 105 DOM
15. 2026-04-23
    price $239,900 764-char remark

    Show marketing remark (764 chars)

    Hideaway Lakes is a beautifully maintained gated community located in rural Valley Center, offering scenic surroundings and a peaceful natural rain-fed lake. This home is completely remodeled from top to bottom, offering a fresh, modern living experience with extensive upgrades throughout. Improvements include all-new plumbing and electrical, new drywall and insulation, a new 50-year roof, updated flooring, and fully remodeled bathrooms with new toilets, and showers enclosures. The home also features new interior and exterior doors, new exterior siding, and a beautifully updated kitchen with brand-new cabinetry, sink/faucet, kitchen island, countertops, and appliances. Be the first to enjoy this home since the full renovation, move-in ready and like new!

16. 2026-02-13
    listed $249,900 Active 764-char remark

    Show marketing remark (764 chars)

    Hideaway Lakes is a beautifully maintained gated community located in rural Valley Center, offering scenic surroundings and a peaceful natural rain-fed lake. This home is completely remodeled from top to bottom, offering a fresh, modern living experience with extensive upgrades throughout. Improvements include all-new plumbing and electrical, new drywall and insulation, a new 50-year roof, updated flooring, and fully remodeled bathrooms with new toilets, and showers enclosures. The home also features new interior and exterior doors, new exterior siding, and a beautifully updated kitchen with brand-new cabinetry, sink/faucet, kitchen island, countertops, and appliances. Be the first to enjoy this home since the full renovation, move-in ready and like new!

17. 2026-02-01
    historical
18. 2026-01-04
    price $250,000
19. 2025-10-24
    listed $269,000 Active
20. 2025-10-20
    historical
21. 2025-10-02
    price $269,000
22. 2025-08-01
    price $270,000
23. 2025-05-29
    listed $275,000 Active
24. 2024-02-26
    soldstatus $40,000 Closed Sale
25. 2024-01-15
    status Pending Sale
26. 2023-11-11
    listed $45,000 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 4/10 Moderate FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 22% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 9/10 Extreme
• 🌡 Heat 5/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥98°F today · 23 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 4 unhealthy d/yr today · 4 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $38,910
• − Mortgage interest: −$13,438
• − Property taxes: −$3,598
• − Insurance: −$1,200
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$3,113
• − Management: −$3,113
• − Depreciation: −$6,979
• Taxable income: $7,469
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,793
• After-tax cash flow: $9,051/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Valley Center-Pauma Unified
• NCES district ID: 0600069
• Math proficiency: 16% ▼ -8.00%
• Reading proficiency: 34% ▼ -5.00%
• Median HH income: $74,438
• Composite: 24.32/100
• National rank: #7705
• State rank: #367 of 517 in CA

Livability — Valley Center

• Score: 52/100
• State rank: #1017
• US rank: #24938

Category grades

Amenities F Commute C- Cost of living F Crime B- Employment A+ Housing B Health & safety F User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Valley Center, CA
• County: San Diego County · 3,178,799 people
• City population: 21,727
• Metro: San Diego-Chula Vista-Carlsbad, CA
• Population (ZIP): 21,727
• Household income: $126,544
• Rent vs Own: 11.7% rent · 88.3% own
• Severe rent burden: 241.0

Population outlook (San Diego County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 3,678,185 people
• By 2030: 3,856,546 · +4.8%
• By 2040: 4,171,407 · +13.4%
• By 2050: 4,421,607 · +20.2%
• By 2075: 4,831,599 · +31.4%
• By 2100: 4,832,502 · +31.4%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.61)
• Race & ethnicity: White 49% Hispanic / Latino 38% Two or more races 23% Native American 4% Asian 3% Black 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 33%
• Common ancestry: Italian 2% Slovak 2% Iranian 1%
• Foreign-born: 17% · Canada, South Korea
• Languages at home: 74% English-only · Spanish 22% Tagalog/Filipino 1% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · San Diego

• 2024 margin: D (+16.8) · D 56.9% · R 40.1% · Other 2.9%
• 2008→2024 swing: +6.6pp toward D · 2008: 10.2pp · 2024: 16.8pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+16.8 2020: D+22.8 2016: D+17.8 2012: D+5.1 2008: D+10.2

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -293.00%
• Current HPI: 294.6017
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: San Diego-Chula Vista-Carlsbad, CA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.21%
• F500 in state: 116

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in CA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	27	$1,492B
▸Financial Services	3	$174B
▸Retail	3	$44B
▸Insurance	3	$26B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$115B
▸Pharmaceuticals / Biotech	2	$62B

Price history

+433.1% since first listed

12 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-23 Price Changed $239,900 SDMLS
• 2026-02-13 Listed $249,900 SDMLS
• 2026-02-01 Listing Removed — SDMLS
• 2026-01-04 Price Changed $250,000 SDMLS
• 2025-10-24 Listed $269,000 SDMLS
• 2025-10-20 Listing Removed — SDMLS
• 2025-10-02 Price Changed $269,000 SDMLS
• 2025-08-01 Price Changed $270,000 SDMLS
• 2025-05-29 Listed $275,000 SDMLS
• 2024-02-26 Sold (MLS) $40,000 CRMLS
• 2024-01-15 Pending — CRMLS
• 2023-11-11 Listed $45,000 CRMLS

Property tax history

+2.1%/yr

Latest (2013): $431 · +2.4% YoY. Source: county tax records.