2559 E Pine River Trl · Lincoln, MI 48745

$95,900

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,200 sqft · SingleFamily · 121 Days on market

Built 1994 1.00 ac lot $80/sqft · 32% below area Est $142k · 32% under ↓ 26% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the B grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +28.7/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• 1% rule +6.7/10.0
• Livability +3.3/5.0
• Schools +2.9/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

2 bedroom, 1 bath home in quiet area. Flexible and motivated sellers, possible seller concessions. Broker protected. Buyer Agent bonus. Detached two car garage and additional outbuilding. Large lot. Open floor plan. Large kitchen. Newer appliances. Main floor laundry. Rooftop Solor Array system helps offset utility bills. Affordable annual taxes. walking distance to Pine River. 10 minutes from Oscoda. Large, Covered front porch. Easy living in the midst of Northern Michigan! Call today for additional details.

Key facts

• Open floor plan
• Newer appliances
• Main floor laundry

Tags

• DETACHED TWO CAR GARAGE
• ADDITIONAL OUTBUILDINGS
• OPEN FLOOR PLAN
• NEWER APPLIANCES
• MAIN FLOOR LAUNDRY
• WALKING DISTANCE TO PINE RIVER

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $96k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $318 ($4k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $96k).
• Recommended offer: $84k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 10.3% vs local median 3.5% in Lincoln — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 66/100 on livability (#428 in MI) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, health & safety A+, housing A; Watch: schools F, crime F, amenities F.
• Oscoda Area Schools (rural): math 31% / reading 38% proficiency, ranked #313 of 540 in MI (top 58%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 8 active listings in the ZIP; 38 units permitted in Alcona County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $663 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $3k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Alcona County population projected at -37% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $27k cash investment doubles in ~9 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 121 days — a 12% lower offer ($84k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts; this cycle's ask has dropped $34k (26%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Recommended offer $84,392 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 121 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.17% ✓
• Cap rate: 10.27%
• Cash-on-cash: 14.21%
• DSCR: 1.63
• GRM: 7.1

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $141,814
• List price: $95,900
• Delta: -32.38%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 4 within 1.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 4.5%
• Equity multiple: 1.17×
• Total profit: $4,664
• Equity at exit: $14,299

10-year hold

• IRR: 13.9%
• Equity multiple: 2.12×
• Total profit: $29,962
• Equity at exit: $8,292

Cash invested: $26,852 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 62 Landlord-Friendly
• State Michigan: 62 Landlord-Friendly · EVEN
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

7-day pay-or-quit; mixed climate; Detroit/AA have some protections.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 48745

• Home prices YoY: -9.2%
• Active inventory: 8
• Price-to-rent: 7.1×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,120 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$503
• Tax from tax record: −$24 /mo · $292/yr
• Insurance: −$40
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$235
• Net cashflow: $318

Break-even live

Break-even rent $718

Max offer price $95,900

Occupancy floor 67%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $372	-5% $345	+0% $318	+5% $291	+10% $264
Rent	-10% $229	-5% $274	+0% $318	+5% $362	+10% $406
Rate	-1.0pp $366	-0.5pp $342	base $318	+0.5pp $293	+1.0pp $268

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $23,975
• Closing costs: $2,877
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 23 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $95,900 Active 121 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $95,900 Active 119 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $95,900 Active 118 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $95,900 Active 117 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $95,900 Active 116 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $95,900 Active 114 DOM
7. 2026-06-12
   days on market $95,900 Active 113 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $95,900 Active 110 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $95,900 Active 109 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $95,900 Active 108 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    days on market $95,900 Active 107 DOM
12. 2026-06-04
    days on market $95,900 Active 104 DOM
13. 2026-06-03
    days on market $95,900 Active 103 DOM
14. 2026-05-10
    price $95,900 515-char remark

    Show marketing remark (515 chars)

    2 bedroom, 1 bath home in quiet area. Flexible and motivated sellers, possible seller concessions. Broker protected. Buyer Agent bonus. Detached two car garage and additional outbuilding. Large lot. Open floor plan. Large kitchen. Newer appliances. Main floor laundry. Rooftop Solor Array system helps offset utility bills. Affordable annual taxes. walking distance to Pine River. 10 minutes from Oscoda. Large, Covered front porch. Easy living in the midst of Northern Michigan! Call today for additional details.

15. 2026-05-10
    price $95,900 515-char remark

    Show marketing remark (515 chars)

    2 bedroom, 1 bath home in quiet area. Flexible and motivated sellers, possible seller concessions. Broker protected. Buyer Agent bonus. Detached two car garage and additional outbuilding. Large lot. Open floor plan. Large kitchen. Newer appliances. Main floor laundry. Rooftop Solor Array system helps offset utility bills. Affordable annual taxes. walking distance to Pine River. 10 minutes from Oscoda. Large, Covered front porch. Easy living in the midst of Northern Michigan! Call today for additional details.

16. 2026-04-20
    price $99,900 515-char remark

    Show marketing remark (515 chars)

    2 bedroom, 1 bath home in quiet area. Flexible and motivated sellers, possible seller concessions. Broker protected. Buyer Agent bonus. Detached two car garage and additional outbuilding. Large lot. Open floor plan. Large kitchen. Newer appliances. Main floor laundry. Rooftop Solor Array system helps offset utility bills. Affordable annual taxes. walking distance to Pine River. 10 minutes from Oscoda. Large, Covered front porch. Easy living in the midst of Northern Michigan! Call today for additional details.

17. 2026-04-20
    price $99,900 515-char remark

    Show marketing remark (515 chars)

    2 bedroom, 1 bath home in quiet area. Flexible and motivated sellers, possible seller concessions. Broker protected. Buyer Agent bonus. Detached two car garage and additional outbuilding. Large lot. Open floor plan. Large kitchen. Newer appliances. Main floor laundry. Rooftop Solor Array system helps offset utility bills. Affordable annual taxes. walking distance to Pine River. 10 minutes from Oscoda. Large, Covered front porch. Easy living in the midst of Northern Michigan! Call today for additional details.

18. 2026-03-31
    price $114,900 515-char remark

    Show marketing remark (515 chars)

    2 bedroom, 1 bath home in quiet area. Flexible and motivated sellers, possible seller concessions. Broker protected. Buyer Agent bonus. Detached two car garage and additional outbuilding. Large lot. Open floor plan. Large kitchen. Newer appliances. Main floor laundry. Rooftop Solor Array system helps offset utility bills. Affordable annual taxes. walking distance to Pine River. 10 minutes from Oscoda. Large, Covered front porch. Easy living in the midst of Northern Michigan! Call today for additional details.

19. 2026-03-31
    price $114,900 515-char remark

    Show marketing remark (515 chars)

    2 bedroom, 1 bath home in quiet area. Flexible and motivated sellers, possible seller concessions. Broker protected. Buyer Agent bonus. Detached two car garage and additional outbuilding. Large lot. Open floor plan. Large kitchen. Newer appliances. Main floor laundry. Rooftop Solor Array system helps offset utility bills. Affordable annual taxes. walking distance to Pine River. 10 minutes from Oscoda. Large, Covered front porch. Easy living in the midst of Northern Michigan! Call today for additional details.

20. 2026-02-26
    price $119,900 515-char remark

    Show marketing remark (515 chars)

    2 bedroom, 1 bath home in quiet area. Flexible and motivated sellers, possible seller concessions. Broker protected. Buyer Agent bonus. Detached two car garage and additional outbuilding. Large lot. Open floor plan. Large kitchen. Newer appliances. Main floor laundry. Rooftop Solor Array system helps offset utility bills. Affordable annual taxes. walking distance to Pine River. 10 minutes from Oscoda. Large, Covered front porch. Easy living in the midst of Northern Michigan! Call today for additional details.

21. 2026-02-26
    price $119,900 515-char remark

    Show marketing remark (515 chars)

    2 bedroom, 1 bath home in quiet area. Flexible and motivated sellers, possible seller concessions. Broker protected. Buyer Agent bonus. Detached two car garage and additional outbuilding. Large lot. Open floor plan. Large kitchen. Newer appliances. Main floor laundry. Rooftop Solor Array system helps offset utility bills. Affordable annual taxes. walking distance to Pine River. 10 minutes from Oscoda. Large, Covered front porch. Easy living in the midst of Northern Michigan! Call today for additional details.

22. 2026-02-01
    listed $129,900 Active 515-char remark

    Show marketing remark (515 chars)

    2 bedroom, 1 bath home in quiet area. Flexible and motivated sellers, possible seller concessions. Broker protected. Buyer Agent bonus. Detached two car garage and additional outbuilding. Large lot. Open floor plan. Large kitchen. Newer appliances. Main floor laundry. Rooftop Solor Array system helps offset utility bills. Affordable annual taxes. walking distance to Pine River. 10 minutes from Oscoda. Large, Covered front porch. Easy living in the midst of Northern Michigan! Call today for additional details.

23. 2026-02-01
    listed $129,900 Active 515-char remark

    Show marketing remark (515 chars)

    2 bedroom, 1 bath home in quiet area. Flexible and motivated sellers, possible seller concessions. Broker protected. Buyer Agent bonus. Detached two car garage and additional outbuilding. Large lot. Open floor plan. Large kitchen. Newer appliances. Main floor laundry. Rooftop Solor Array system helps offset utility bills. Affordable annual taxes. walking distance to Pine River. 10 minutes from Oscoda. Large, Covered front porch. Easy living in the midst of Northern Michigan! Call today for additional details.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast MI · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $292 · $24/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $885 · $74/mo
• Expected delta: +$592/yr (+$49/mo · 202.7%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 1/10 Low 7 d/yr ≥93°F today · 13 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $13,445
• − Mortgage interest: −$5,372
• − Property taxes: −$292
• − Insurance: −$480
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,076
• − Management: −$1,076
• − Depreciation: −$2,790
• Taxable income: $2,360
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$566
• After-tax cash flow: $3,248/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Oscoda Area Schools
• NCES district ID: 2626970
• Math proficiency: 31% ▼ -7.00%
• Reading proficiency: 38% ▼ -9.00%
• Median HH income: $36,275
• Composite: 28.6/100
• National rank: #6714
• State rank: #313 of 540 in MI

Livability — Lincoln

• Score: 66/100
• State rank: #428
• US rank: #11892

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment F Housing A Health & safety A+ User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 1,189

Population outlook (Alcona County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 9,071 people
• By 2030: 8,331 · -8.2%
• By 2040: 6,852 · -24.5%
• By 2050: 5,691 · -37.3%
• By 2075: 4,229 · -53.4%
• By 2100: 3,149 · -65.3%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (94%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 94% Two or more races 3% Native American 1%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 8% Lithuanian 6% Slovak 5%
• Foreign-born: 1%
• Languages at home: 98% English-only · Russian/Polish/Slavic 1% Arabic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Alcona

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+41.7) · D 28.6% · R 70.3% · Other 1.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: -33.8pp toward R · 2008: -7.9pp · 2024: -41.7pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+41.7 2020: R+38.3 2016: R+40.0 2012: R+18.2 2008: R+7.9

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -17.07%
• Current HPI: 167.8881
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.37%
• F500 in state: 28

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in MI)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Automotive Parts	3	$48B
▸Automotive	2	$372B
▸Chemicals	1	$45B
▸Automotive Retail	1	$29B
▸Healthcare / Medical Devices	1	$23B
▸Automotive Technology	1	$20B

Price history

-26.2% since first listed

10 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-10 Price Changed $95,900 MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2026-05-10 Price Changed $95,900 REALCOMP
• 2026-04-20 Price Changed $99,900 MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2026-04-20 Price Changed $99,900 REALCOMP
• 2026-03-31 Price Changed $114,900 MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2026-03-31 Price Changed $114,900 REALCOMP
• 2026-02-26 Price Changed $119,900 MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2026-02-26 Price Changed $119,900 REALCOMP
• 2026-02-01 Listed $129,900 REALCOMP
• 2026-02-01 Listed $129,900 MiRealSource-MiMLS

Property tax history

-2.9%/yr

Latest (2025): $292 · +2.6% YoY. Source: county tax records.