34 Ash St · Gray, GA 31033

$65,500

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 912 sqft · SingleFamily · 62 Days on market

Built 1961 3.04 ac lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the B+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• Appreciation +8.2/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Livability +3.8/5.0
• Schools +2.9/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks

This traditional ranch house on just over 3 acres in Haddock next to Hewson Park, has lots of potential. The house features a separate living room and dining room, a country kitchen. There is ample opportunity to maximize living, slightly off the grid in this location. The Ash street entrance where the house sits is fenced, there are two driveways on Ash Street. The property is lightly wooded with trees ranging from young to very mature. Walk to shopping, 20 minutes to I-75 (Macon GA) and 15 minutes to Highway 49 (Milledgeville GA). Close to Educational Institutes. Ideal for Spot Building. Property is Occupied! PLEASE DO NOT DISTURB OCCUPANT!(Showings only during due diligence)

Key facts

• Country kitchen
• Fenced entrance
• Two driveways

Tags

• SEPARATE LIVING ROOM
• COUNTRY KITCHEN
• FENCED ENTRANCE
• TWO DRIVEWAYS
• LIGHTLY WOODED
• WALK TO SHOPPING

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $66k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $323 ($4k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($982 rent vs $66k).
• Recommended offer: $62k (6.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 12.2% vs local median 4.2% in Gray — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 76/100 on livability (#26 in GA, #3,600 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F.
• Jones County (rural): math 32% / reading 34% proficiency, ranked #72 of 174 in GA (top 41%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Turner Woods Elementary School (math 58% / reading 42%, grade D+, #255 of 1,228 statewide, top 21%, 615 students, 49% FRL); Gray Station Middle School (math 33% / reading 40%, grade F, #167 of 470 statewide, top 38%, 653 students, 45% FRL).
• Market conditions: 20 active listings in the ZIP; 106 units permitted in Jones County in 2024 (6 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $5k of equity ($453 loan paydown + $4k appreciation (6.3% local appreciation)).
• Jones County population projected at -11% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (6.3% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $18k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 7, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$30k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 62 days — a 6% lower offer ($62k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 4 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 62% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→17/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $61,570 (6.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 62 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 6% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1961 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.50% ✓
• Cap rate: 12.22%
• Cash-on-cash: 21.16%
• DSCR: 1.94
• GRM: 5.6

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $219,792
• Comps found: 2

Show comp detail 2 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
34 Ash St	0.00mi	2/1.0	912 (0%)	1mo	$45,000	$49	99
1512 Ga Highway 22 E	0.41mi	2/1.0	1,038 (+14%)	12mo	$250,000	$241	48

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

6.35% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 33.8%
• Equity multiple: 3.23×
• Total profit: $40,893
• Equity at exit: $42,632

10-year hold

• IRR: 31.1%
• Equity multiple: 6.66×
• Total profit: $103,852
• Equity at exit: $78,601

Cash invested: $18,340 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Georgia: 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Magistrate court evictions in 10-30 days; no rent control; preempted; few tenant protections.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 31033

• Home prices YoY: 2.8%
• Active inventory: 20
• Price-to-rent: 5.6×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $982 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$343
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$82 /mo · $982/yr
• Insurance: −$27
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$206
• Net cashflow: $323

Break-even live

Break-even rent $573

Max offer price $65,500

Occupancy floor 62%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $369	-5% $346	+0% $323	+5% $301	+10% $278
Rent	-10% $246	-5% $285	+0% $323	+5% $362	+10% $401
Rate	-1.0pp $356	-0.5pp $340	base $323	+0.5pp $306	+1.0pp $289

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $16,375
• Closing costs: $1,965
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 8 events

1. 2026-04-09
   status Under Contract
2. 2026-02-26
   status Back On Market
3. 2026-02-19
   historical Active Under Contract
4. 2026-01-26
   listed $65,500 New
5. 2025-12-31
   historical
6. 2025-11-13
   listed $65,500 New
7. 2025-03-24
   historical
8. 2025-01-15
   listed $60,500 New

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 6/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥107°F today · 17 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 62% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 4 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $11,788
• − Mortgage interest: −$3,669
• − Property taxes: −$982
• − Insurance: −$328
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$943
• − Management: −$943
• − Depreciation: −$1,905
• Taxable income: $3,018
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$724
• After-tax cash flow: $3,157/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Jones County
• NCES district ID: 1303150
• Math proficiency: 32% ▼ -8.00%
• Reading proficiency: 34% ▼ -8.00%
• Median HH income: $51,630
• Composite: 28.84/100
• National rank: #6649
• State rank: #72 of 174 in GA

Livability — Gray

• Score: 76/100
• State rank: #26
• US rank: #3600

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A+ Employment B- Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings C+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 2,552

Population outlook (Jones County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 28,682 people
• By 2030: 28,394 · -1.0%
• By 2040: 27,246 · -5.0%
• By 2050: 25,575 · -10.8%
• By 2075: 21,857 · -23.8%
• By 2100: 17,453 · -39.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (70%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 70% Black 27% Hispanic / Latino 2% Two or more races 1%
• Common ancestry: Serbian 2% Portuguese 1%
• Foreign-born: 1% · Canada
• Languages at home: 99% English-only · Spanish 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Jones

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+38.0) · D 30.8% · R 68.8%
• 2008→2024 swing: -12.2pp toward R · 2008: -25.8pp · 2024: -38.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+38.0 2020: R+33.9 2016: R+34.7 2012: R+28.7 2008: R+25.8

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 6.35%
• Current HPI: 236.239
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.66%
• F500 in state: 28

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in GA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Paper / Packaging	2	$29B
▸Retail	1	$160B
▸Transportation / Logistics	1	$91B
▸Airlines	1	$62B
▸Consumer Goods	1	$47B
▸Utilities	1	$25B

Price history

+8.3% since first listed

8 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-09 Pending — GAMLS
• 2026-02-26 Relisted — GAMLS
• 2026-02-19 Contingent — GAMLS
• 2026-01-26 Listed $65,500 GAMLS
• 2025-12-31 Listing Removed — GAMLS
• 2025-11-13 Listed $65,500 GAMLS
• 2025-03-24 Listing Removed — GAMLS
• 2025-01-15 Listed $60,500 GAMLS