1440 S Orange Ave Spc 109 · El Cajon, CA 92020

$139,000

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 900 sqft · Manufactured · 33 Days on market

Built 1972 16 ac lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the B grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +4.0/10.0
• Livability +3.5/5.0
• Rent growth +3.0/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Welcome to resort-style living in one of El Cajon’s most sought-after 55+ communities! This beautifully renovated home offers the perfect blend of comfort, convenience, and community. Step inside to discover brand-new flooring and fresh interior paint throughout, giving the space a bright, move-in-ready feel. An outside storage unit adds everyday practicality, keeping your home clutter-free. Beyond your front door, the meticulously maintained grounds set this community apart, lush landscaping, clean walkways, and pride of ownership are evident at every turn. Residents enjoy an impressive array of amenities designed for active adult living, including a clubhouse, pool, and social activ

Key facts

• Clubhouse
• Brand new flooring
• Pool

Tags

• BRAND NEW FLOORING
• OUTSIDE STORAGE UNIT
• LUSH LANDSCAPING
• CLUBHOUSE
• POOL
• SOCIAL ACTIVITIES

Property features AI

Finance

• HOA & community: Association amenities include clubhouse, billiard room, pool, and spa/hot tub; Located in a senior community (Villa Novia)

Exterior

• Parking: 2 parking spaces
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer
• Home design: Single-story mobile home; Residential property in a senior community (Villa Novia, El Cajon)
• Construction: Composition roof
• Exterior features: Deck; Community pool; Community spa/hot tub; Billiard room and clubhouse (association amenities)

Interior

• Bedrooms: 2 possible bedrooms
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central Air; Forced Air (electric)
• Interior features: Central air conditioning; Forced air heating (electric)

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $139k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $745 ($9k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $139k).
• Recommended offer: $135k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 12.7% vs local median 2.4% in El Cajon — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 70/100 on livability (#230 in CA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: amenities A+, commute A+; Watch: health & safety C-, crime D+, cost of living F.
• Grossmont Union High (suburban): math 31% / reading 60% proficiency, ranked #173 of 517 in CA (top 34%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; only 17% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+2.2%/yr); 159 active listings in the ZIP; 40 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 0d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 11,759 units permitted in San Diego County in 2024 (7,244 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 34% of the median local income ($76k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $961 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• San Diego County population projected at +20% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 2.2% rent growth), your $39k cash investment doubles in ~6 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 33 days — a 3% lower offer ($135k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts; this cycle's ask has dropped $10k (7%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 6→18/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $134,830 (3.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 33 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1972 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.55% ✓
• Cap rate: 12.73%
• Cash-on-cash: 22.98%
• DSCR: 2.02
• GRM: 5.4

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 2.18% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 15.0%
• Equity multiple: 1.60×
• Total profit: $23,209
• Equity at exit: $20,725

10-year hold

• IRR: 23.1%
• Equity multiple: 2.91×
• Total profit: $74,332
• Equity at exit: $12,018

Cash invested: $38,920 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State California: 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+13
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

AB1482 statewide rent cap (10% + CPI). Cities (SF/LA/Berkeley) layer stricter rules. Just-cause statewide.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 92020

• Rents YoY: 2.2%
• Active inventory: 159
• Price-to-rent: 5.4×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,159 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$729
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$174 /mo · $2,085/yr
• Insurance: −$58
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$453
• Net cashflow: $745

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,216

Max offer price $139,000

Occupancy floor 60%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $841	-5% $793	+0% $745	+5% $697	+10% $649
Rent	-10% $575	-5% $660	+0% $745	+5% $831	+10% $916
Rate	-1.0pp $815	-0.5pp $781	base $745	+0.5pp $709	+1.0pp $673

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $34,750
• Closing costs: $4,170
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 40 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
560 Tilling Way El Cajon, CA	1.0	1.0	591	$1,850	$3.13	0d	1	0.17mi
1054 S Magnolia Ave Unit 8 El Cajon, CA	2.0	2.0	840	$2,095	$2.49	0d	1	0.38mi
1028 S Magnolia Ave El Cajon, CA	2.0	1.0	800	$1,995	$2.49	0d	1	0.42mi
1013 S Sunshine Ave Unit I El Cajon, CA	2.0	1.0	918	$2,500	$2.72	0d	1	0.42mi
1013 S Sunshine Ave Unit G El Cajon, CA	2.0	1.0	918	$2,500	$2.72	22d	1	0.42mi
1000 Estes St #57 El Cajon, CA	1.0	1.0	650	$2,100	$3.23	4d	1	0.43mi
948 S Sunshine Ave Unit 20 El Cajon, CA	2.0	1.0	900	$2,095	$2.33	0d	1	0.47mi
923 S Sunshine Ave El Cajon, CA	2.0	1.0	900	$2,050	$2.28	0d	1	0.47mi
950 S Magnolia Ave El Cajon, CA	1.0	1.0	800	$1,775	$2.22	0d	1	0.47mi
994 Leslie Rd Apt 5 El Cajon, CA	2.0	1.0	800	$1,795	$2.24	22d	1	0.48mi
921 S Sunshine Ave El Cajon, CA	2.0	2.0	900	$2,350	$2.61	0d	2	0.50mi
908 S Sunshine Ave #5 El Cajon, CA	2.0	2.0	850	$2,500	$2.94	3d	1	0.50mi
909 S Sunshine Ave El Cajon, CA	2.0	1.0	835	$2,195	$2.63	0d	1	0.51mi
110 W Renette Ave Apt 18 El Cajon, CA	1.0	1.0	646	$1,695	$2.62	11d	1	0.58mi
761 S Orange Ave Unit B El Cajon, CA	2.0	1.0	1000	$2,095	$2.10	0d	1	0.74mi
728 S Magnolia Ave Unit 4D El Cajon, CA	1.0	1.0	600	$1,595	$2.66	0d	1	0.76mi
743 S Magnolia Ave El Cajon, CA	2.0	1.0	850	$2,550	$3.00	8d	2	0.76mi
792 Avocado Ave El Cajon, CA	2.0	1.0	789	$2,195	$2.78	0d	1	0.82mi
870 E Chase Ave Unit D El Cajon, CA	2.0	1.0	795	$2,440	$3.07	0d	1	0.85mi
466 W Washington Ave El Cajon, CA	1.0–2.0	1.0	802	$2,179	$2.72	0d	6	0.88mi
633 S Johnson Ave El Cajon, CA	2.0	1.0	840	$2,400	$2.86	0d	4	0.92mi
725 Franklin Ave Unit D El Cajon, CA	2.0	2.0	1000	$2,150	$2.15	0d	1	0.93mi
960 E Chase Ave Unit C El Cajon, CA	2.0	2.0	813	$2,100	$2.58	0d	1	0.96mi
552 S Magnolia Ave Unit 552 El Cajon, CA	2.0	1.0	750	$2,295	$3.06	2d	1	0.96mi
802 Franklin Ave El Cajon, CA	1.0–2.0	1.0	800	$1,995	$2.49	6d	2	0.98mi
802 Franklin Ave Unit 858 El Cajon, CA	2.0	1.0	900	$1,995	$2.22	0d	1	0.98mi
802 Franklin Ave Unit 804 El Cajon, CA	1.0	1.0	700	$1,650	$2.36	0d	1	0.98mi
758 S Mollison Ave El Cajon, CA	2.0	1.0	875	$1,945	$2.22	0d	2	1.05mi
424 Emerald Ave El Cajon, CA	2.0–3.0	1.0	800	$2,199	$2.75	0d	2	1.05mi
685 S Lincoln Ave El Cajon, CA	2.0	2.0	800	$2,300	$2.88	0d	1	1.06mi
570 S Lincoln Ave El Cajon, CA	1.0–2.0	1.0	745	$2,475	$3.32	4d	2	1.11mi
863 S Mollison Ave El Cajon, CA	2.0	1.0	850	$2,095	$2.46	0d	4	1.12mi
336 Claydelle Ave Unit 336-10 El Cajon, CA	1.0	1.0	575	$1,595	$2.77	0d	1	1.15mi
189 Lexington Ave El Cajon, CA	1.0	1.0	697	$2,162	$3.10	0d	1	1.16mi
Lexington Ave El Cajon, CA	1.0	1.0	587	$2,000	$3.41	3d	1	1.16mi
957 E Washington Ave El Cajon, CA	2.0	2.0	900	$2,295	$2.55	0d	1	1.19mi
975 E Washington Ave Apt E El Cajon, CA	2.0	1.0	900	$2,100	$2.33	22d	1	1.22mi
444 S Lincoln Ave El Cajon, CA	2.0	1.0	748	$2,000	$2.67	25d	1	1.22mi
265 Richardson Ave El Cajon, CA	2.0	1.0	1024	$3,250	$3.17	4d	1	1.22mi
250 E Lexington Ave El Cajon, CA	1.0	1.0	570	$1,967	$3.45	0d	1	1.22mi

Listing history 18 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $139,000 Active 33 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $139,000 Active 30 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $139,000 Active 29 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $139,000 Active 28 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $139,000 Active 27 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $139,000 Active 25 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $139,000 Active 24 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $139,000 Active 21 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   pricedays on market $139,000 Active 20 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $149,000 Active 19 DOM
11. 2026-06-04
    days on market $149,000 Active 16 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    days on market $149,000 Active 15 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $149,000 Active 14 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $149,000 Active 13 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $149,000 Active 12 DOM
16. 2026-05-19
    listed $149,000 Active
17. 2026-03-23
    historical
18. 2026-03-05
    listed $79,900 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 5/10 Major 6 d/yr ≥99°F today · 18 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 4 unhealthy d/yr today · 4 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $25,912
• − Mortgage interest: −$7,786
• − Property taxes: −$2,085
• − Insurance: −$695
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,073
• − Management: −$2,073
• − Depreciation: −$4,044
• Taxable income: $7,156
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,718
• After-tax cash flow: $7,226/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Grossmont Union High
• NCES district ID: 0616230
• Math proficiency: 31% ▼ -1.00%
• Reading proficiency: 60% ▲ 5.00%
• Median HH income: $61,801
• Composite: 40.07/100
• National rank: #3810
• State rank: #173 of 517 in CA

Livability — El Cajon

• Score: 70/100
• State rank: #230
• US rank: #7531

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A+ Cost of living F Crime D+ Employment C Housing C+ Health & safety C- User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: El Cajon, CA
• County: San Diego County · 3,178,799 people
• City population: 173,694
• Metro: San Diego-Chula Vista-Carlsbad, CA
• Population (ZIP): 57,842
• Household income: $76,032
• Rent vs Own: 55.6% rent · 44.4% own
• Severe rent burden: 3892.0

Population outlook (San Diego County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 3,678,185 people
• By 2030: 3,856,546 · +4.8%
• By 2040: 4,171,407 · +13.4%
• By 2050: 4,421,607 · +20.2%
• By 2075: 4,831,599 · +31.4%
• By 2100: 4,832,502 · +31.4%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.61)
• Race & ethnicity: White 55% Hispanic / Latino 28% Two or more races 13% Black 6% Asian 4%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 25%
• Common ancestry: Arab 7% Italian 2% Lithuanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 28% · Canada, China, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 56% English-only · Spanish 21% Arabic 10% Other Indo-European 3%

Political lean MEDSL · San Diego

• 2024 margin: D (+16.8) · D 56.9% · R 40.1% · Other 2.9%
• 2008→2024 swing: +6.6pp toward D · 2008: 10.2pp · 2024: 16.8pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+16.8 2020: D+22.8 2016: D+17.8 2012: D+5.1 2008: D+10.2

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -724.49%
• Current HPI: 361.2373
• Rent YoY: ▲ 2.18%
• Metro: San Diego-Chula Vista-Carlsbad, CA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.21%
• F500 in state: 116

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in CA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	27	$1,492B
▸Financial Services	3	$174B
▸Retail	3	$44B
▸Insurance	3	$26B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$115B
▸Pharmaceuticals / Biotech	2	$62B

Price history

+86.5% since first listed

3 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-19 Listed $149,000 SDMLS
• 2026-03-23 Listing Removed — CRMLS
• 2026-03-05 Listed $79,900 CRMLS