8530 Calverton Pines Ln · Houston, TX 77095

$344,900

5 bd · 3.5 ba · 3,584 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 52 Days on market

Built 2003 9,461 sqft lot $96/sqft · 21% below area Est $436k · 21% under $96/mo HOA · 4% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• Cash flow +5.2/30.0
• Appreciation +4.5/10.0
• Schools +4.4/10.0
• Livability +3.7/5.0
• Rent growth +3.0/5.0
• 1% rule +2.5/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• DSCR +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Beautiful 2 Story Home in sought after Copper Lakes with great open floor plan. 4 bedrooms plus Study or 5 bedrooms. Fresh custom paint with updated custom light fixtures. Brand new carpet. Nice large walk-in closets upstairs. Wonderful over sized laundry room upstairs. Nice breakfast nook off large kitchen with island and updated stainless appliances. Everything in this home has been updated. Garage has extra space for toys or workout equipment.

Key facts

• Central fireplace
• Private retreat
• Corner lot

Tags

• CORNER LOT
• OPEN-CONCEPT FLOOR PLAN
• CENTRAL FIREPLACE
• CHEF-INSPIRED KITCHEN
• PRIVATE RETREAT
• ATTACHED ENSUITE BATHROOM

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Lease not considered
• HOA & community: Member of Copper Lakes Homeowners Association; Annual association fee of $1,150

Exterior

• Parking: Attached garage; 2 garage spaces
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer
• Home design: Residential property; Faces west; Entry level not specified
• Construction: Brick construction; Composition roof; Slab foundation; Built in 2003
• Exterior features: Deck; Fence (back yard); Covered porch; Patio; Located on a cul-de-sac in a subdivision; Asphalt road access

Interior

• Kitchen: Convection oven; Dishwasher; Gas cooktop; Microwave; Refrigerator
• Bedrooms: 6 total rooms (bedroom count not specified)
• Flooring: Carpet; Wood
• Bathrooms: 3 full bathrooms; 1 half bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Central heating (gas); Central air conditioning (electric)
• Interior features: Quartz countertops; Gas log fireplace (1 total)
• Laundry & utility: Washer hookup; Electric dryer hookup; Gas dryer hookup

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 5-bed/3.5-bath single-family listed at $345k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-782 ($-9k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $207k (40.1% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $257k (25.4% below list).
• Recommended offer: $207k (40.1% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 74/100 on livability (#184 in TX, #4,771 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: amenities A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: crime F.
• Cypress-Fairbanks ISD (suburban): math 45% / reading 52% proficiency, ranked #161 of 826 in TX (top 20%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Copeland El (math 40% / reading 53%, grade D-, #1,080 of 4,322 statewide, top 25%, 930 students, 47% FRL); Aragon Middle (math 55% / reading 58%, grade B, #226 of 1,662 statewide, top 14%, 1,534 students, 47% FRL); Cypress-Fairbanks J J A E P (12 students, 0% FRL).
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+2.1%/yr); 335 active listings in the ZIP; 4 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 46d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 75% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; solid renter incomes; 29,883 units permitted in Harris County in 2024 (8,621 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 34% of the median local income ($92k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-0.9%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $3k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Harris County population projected at +47% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 52 days — a 3% lower offer ($335k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts since 13y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $65k (16%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: property tax is 2.7% of price.
• Climate carrying-cost: moderate flood risk; severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→24/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $206,683 (40.1% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 52 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 40% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Property tax is high relative to price — has the assessment been appealed recently, and will the sale trigger a re-assessment?
4. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
7. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
8. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
9. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
10. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
11. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.75% ✗
• Cap rate: 3.57%
• Cash-on-cash: -9.72%
• DSCR: 0.57
• GRM: 11.2

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $435,920
• List price: $344,900
• Delta: -20.88%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
8311 Brighton Lake Ln	0.25mi	5/3.5	3,629 (+1%)	3mo	$449,900	$124	84
8507 Forest Arbor Ct	0.24mi	5/4.5	3,739 (+4%)	4mo	$574,000	$154	74
8407 Bending Branch Ln	0.25mi	4/3.5 (-1)	3,400 (-5%)	3mo	$450,000	$132	72
9007 Gable Glen Ln	0.42mi	4/3.5 (-1)	3,612 (+1%)	3mo	$525,000	$145	72
8107 Cranbrook Hollow Ln	0.52mi	4/3.5 (-1)	3,491 (-3%)	1mo	$618,000	$177	66
17718 Cypress Laurel St	0.14mi	4/2.5 (-1)	3,147 (-12%)	1mo	$430,000	$137	63
17323 E Mill Village Cir	0.58mi	4/3.5 (-1)	3,717 (+4%)	4mo	$599,999	$161	59
17710 Noble Oak Ct	0.74mi	4/3.5 (-1)	3,623 (+1%)	3mo	$425,000	$117	56
17935 Gable Oak Ln	0.55mi	4/2.5 (-1)	3,374 (-6%)	1mo	$439,900	$130	54
8510 Forest Arbor Ct	0.24mi	4/2.0 (-1)	3,134 (-13%)	4mo	$475,000	$152	53
17414 Jade Ridge Ln	0.51mi	5/4.5	3,902 (+9%)	6mo	$525,000	$135	53
8823 Hollow Banks Ln	0.33mi	4/3.5 (-1)	4,072 (+14%)	5mo	$660,000	$162	53

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-0.94% appreciation · 2.1% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -18.9%
• Equity multiple: 0.20×
• Total profit: $-76,957
• Equity at exit: $84,159

10-year hold

• IRR: -13.2%
• Equity multiple: -0.14×
• Total profit: $-110,279
• Equity at exit: $89,145

Cash invested: $96,572 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 77095

• Home prices YoY: -0.4%
• Rents YoY: 2.1%
• Active inventory: 335
• Price-to-rent: 11.2×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,573 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,809
• Tax from tax record: −$766 /mo · $9,198/yr
• Insurance: −$144
• HOA: −$96
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$540
• Net cashflow: $-782

Break-even live

Break-even rent $3,563

Max offer price $206,683

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-587	-5% $-685	+0% $-782	+5% $-880	+10% $-978
Rent	-10% $-986	-5% $-884	+0% $-782	+5% $-681	+10% $-579
Rate	-1.0pp $-609	-0.5pp $-695	base $-782	+0.5pp $-872	+1.0pp $-963

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $86,225
• Closing costs: $10,347
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 4 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
17903 Timber Crossing Ln Cypress, TX	4.0	2.5	2532	$2,500	$0.99	9d	1	0.23mi
17114 Kirkland Oaks Ln Houston, TX	4.0	2.5	2536	$2,600	$1.03	45d	1	1.11mi
7636 Cocobola Ln Cypress, TX	5.0	2.5	2775	$3,000	$1.08	45d	1	1.24mi
7218 Broadelm Dr Houston, TX	4.0	3.0	3158	$2,400	$0.76	45d	1	1.45mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $96 · $1,152/yr

Listing history 28 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $344,900 Active 52 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $344,900 Active 49 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   price $344,900 Active 48 DOM
4. 2026-06-17
   days on market $349,900 Active 48 DOM
5. 2026-06-16
   days on market $349,900 Active 47 DOM
6. 2026-06-15
   days on market $349,900 Active 46 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $349,900 Active 44 DOM
8. 2026-06-13
   pricedays on market $349,900 Active 43 DOM
9. 2026-06-09
   days on market $359,900 Active 40 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    days on market $359,900 Active 39 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    days on market $359,900 Active 38 DOM
12. 2026-06-04
    days on market $359,900 Active 35 DOM
13. 2026-06-03
    days on market $359,900 Active 34 DOM
14. 2026-06-02
    days on market $359,900 Active 33 DOM
15. 2026-06-02
    days on market $359,900 Active 32 DOM
16. 2026-05-31
    days on market $359,900 Active 31 DOM
17. 2026-05-13
    price $384,900 1005-char remark
18. 2026-05-08
    price $399,900 1005-char remark
19. 2026-04-30
    listed $409,900 Active 1005-char remark
20. 2022-05-23
    price $2,895
21. 2013-07-22
    soldstatus
22. 2013-07-02
    soldstatus Sold 450-char remark

    Show marketing remark (450 chars)

    Beautiful 2 Story Home in sought after Copper Lakes with great open floor plan. 4 bedrooms plus Study or 5 bedrooms. Fresh custom paint with updated custom light fixtures. Brand new carpet. Nice large walk-in closets upstairs. Wonderful over sized laundry room upstairs. Nice breakfast nook off large kitchen with island and updated stainless appliances. Everything in this home has been updated. Garage has extra space for toys or workout equipment.

23. 2013-06-19
    status Pending, Continue to Show 450-char remark

    Show marketing remark (450 chars)

    Beautiful 2 Story Home in sought after Copper Lakes with great open floor plan. 4 bedrooms plus Study or 5 bedrooms. Fresh custom paint with updated custom light fixtures. Brand new carpet. Nice large walk-in closets upstairs. Wonderful over sized laundry room upstairs. Nice breakfast nook off large kitchen with island and updated stainless appliances. Everything in this home has been updated. Garage has extra space for toys or workout equipment.

24. 2013-06-05
    status Option Pending 450-char remark

    Show marketing remark (450 chars)

    Beautiful 2 Story Home in sought after Copper Lakes with great open floor plan. 4 bedrooms plus Study or 5 bedrooms. Fresh custom paint with updated custom light fixtures. Brand new carpet. Nice large walk-in closets upstairs. Wonderful over sized laundry room upstairs. Nice breakfast nook off large kitchen with island and updated stainless appliances. Everything in this home has been updated. Garage has extra space for toys or workout equipment.

25. 2013-05-22
    price $238,875 450-char remark

    Show marketing remark (450 chars)

    Beautiful 2 Story Home in sought after Copper Lakes with great open floor plan. 4 bedrooms plus Study or 5 bedrooms. Fresh custom paint with updated custom light fixtures. Brand new carpet. Nice large walk-in closets upstairs. Wonderful over sized laundry room upstairs. Nice breakfast nook off large kitchen with island and updated stainless appliances. Everything in this home has been updated. Garage has extra space for toys or workout equipment.

26. 2013-04-23
    price $238,975 450-char remark

    Show marketing remark (450 chars)

    Beautiful 2 Story Home in sought after Copper Lakes with great open floor plan. 4 bedrooms plus Study or 5 bedrooms. Fresh custom paint with updated custom light fixtures. Brand new carpet. Nice large walk-in closets upstairs. Wonderful over sized laundry room upstairs. Nice breakfast nook off large kitchen with island and updated stainless appliances. Everything in this home has been updated. Garage has extra space for toys or workout equipment.

27. 2013-04-20
    price $245,000 450-char remark

    Show marketing remark (450 chars)

    Beautiful 2 Story Home in sought after Copper Lakes with great open floor plan. 4 bedrooms plus Study or 5 bedrooms. Fresh custom paint with updated custom light fixtures. Brand new carpet. Nice large walk-in closets upstairs. Wonderful over sized laundry room upstairs. Nice breakfast nook off large kitchen with island and updated stainless appliances. Everything in this home has been updated. Garage has extra space for toys or workout equipment.

28. 2013-04-05
    listed $250,000 Active 450-char remark

    Show marketing remark (450 chars)

    Beautiful 2 Story Home in sought after Copper Lakes with great open floor plan. 4 bedrooms plus Study or 5 bedrooms. Fresh custom paint with updated custom light fixtures. Brand new carpet. Nice large walk-in closets upstairs. Wonderful over sized laundry room upstairs. Nice breakfast nook off large kitchen with island and updated stainless appliances. Everything in this home has been updated. Garage has extra space for toys or workout equipment.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $9,198 · $766/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $9,198 · $766/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 5/10 Major FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 48% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥110°F today · 24 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $30,873
• − Mortgage interest: −$19,320
• − Property taxes: −$9,198
• − Insurance: −$1,724
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,470
• − Management: −$2,470
• − HOA: −$1,152
• − Depreciation: −$10,033
• Taxable loss: −$15,494
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$3,719
• After-tax cash flow: $-5,670/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Cypress-Fairbanks ISD
• NCES district ID: 4816110
• Math proficiency: 45% ▼ -12.00%
• Reading proficiency: 52% ▼ -2.00%
• Median HH income: $72,025
• Composite: 43.63/100
• National rank: #2968
• State rank: #161 of 826 in TX

Livability — Houston

• Score: 74/100
• State rank: #184
• US rank: #4771

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment C Housing A+ Health & safety A- User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Harris County · 4,702,590 people
• City population: 3,226,434
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• Population (ZIP): 69,767
• Household income: $91,594
• Rent vs Own: 29.4% rent · 70.6% own
• Severe rent burden: 1870.0

Population outlook (Harris County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 5,571,493 people
• By 2030: 6,089,821 · +9.3%
• By 2040: 7,142,806 · +28.2%
• By 2050: 8,185,864 · +46.9%
• By 2075: 10,574,329 · +89.8%
• By 2100: 12,109,958 · +117.4%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Highly diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.73)
• Race & ethnicity: White 39% Hispanic / Latino 28% Two or more races 18% Black 16% Asian 12%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 16% Cuban 2%
• Common ancestry: Italian 2% Romanian 2% Lithuanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 25% · Canada, Vietnam, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 66% English-only · Spanish 19% Vietnamese 5% Arabic 3%

Political lean MEDSL · Harris

• 2024 margin: Lean D (+5.5) · D 52.0% · R 46.4% · Other 1.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: +3.9pp toward D · 2008: 1.6pp · 2024: 5.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+5.5 2020: D+13.3 2016: D+12.4 2012: D+0.1 2008: D+1.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -0.94%
• Current HPI: 236.0249
• Rent YoY: ▲ 2.10%
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

+38.0% since first listed

16 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-17 Price Changed $344,900 HARMLS
• 2026-06-10 Price Changed $349,900 HARMLS
• 2026-05-29 Price Changed $359,900 HARMLS
• 2026-05-21 Price Changed $374,900 HARMLS
• 2026-05-13 Price Changed $384,900 HARMLS
• 2026-05-08 Price Changed $399,900 HARMLS
• 2026-04-30 Listed $409,900 HARMLS
• 2022-05-23 Price Changed $2,895 RENT.
• 2013-07-22 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2013-07-02 Sold (MLS) — HARMLS
• 2013-06-19 Pending — HARMLS
• 2013-06-05 Pending — HARMLS
• 2013-05-22 Price Changed $238,875 HARMLS
• 2013-04-23 Price Changed $238,975 HARMLS
• 2013-04-20 Price Changed $245,000 HARMLS
• 2013-04-05 Listed $250,000 HARMLS

Property tax history

+5.6%/yr

Latest (2025): $9,198 · +19.8% YoY. Source: county tax records.