23095 Bellini Dr · Magnolia, TX 77355

$274,900

5 bd · 2.5 ba · 2,644 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 2 Days on market

Built 2020 5,135 sqft lot $104/sqft · 13% below area Est $316k · 13% under $31/mo HOA · 1% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +13.3/15.0
• Cash flow +9.2/30.0
• Schools +3.9/10.0
• Livability +3.7/5.0
• 1% rule +3.3/10.0
• DSCR +2.6/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

The Driftwood Plan by LGI Homes. This gorgeous two-story home with 5 bedrooms and 2.5 bathrooms offers a true retreat for the whole family, showcasing an expansive family room downstairs and a spacious game room upstairs. The chef-ready kitchen is equipped with granite countertops, abundant cabinet storage, and a full set of Whirlpool brand appliances, including the refrigerator with and ice maker. A private, downstairs master suite includes a separate garden tub, step-in shower and large walk-in closet. Four secondary bedrooms and a large full bathroom with separate vanity area are located upstairs.

Key facts

• Near local shopping
• Strong curb appeal
• Bonus room

Tags

• MOVE IN READY
• FRESHLY UPDATED
• BONUS ROOM
• MANICURED LANDSCAPING
• STRONG CURB APPEAL
• NEAR LOCAL SHOPPING

Property features AI

Finance

• HOA & community: Community managed by SBB Community Management; Annual association fee of $372

Exterior

• Parking: Attached garage; 2 garage spaces
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer
• Home design: Residential property; Built in 2020; Slab foundation; Composition roof
• Construction: Wood siding construction
• Exterior features: Subdivision lot

Interior

• Kitchen: Electric range; Microwave; Dishwasher; Pantry
• Bedrooms: 5 total rooms (includes bedrooms and living spaces)
• Flooring: Carpet; Vinyl
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms; 1 half bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Central heating (electric); Central air conditioning (electric)
• Interior features: Breakfast bar; Primary bedroom with private bath; Walk-in pantry; Separate shower; Loft
• Laundry & utility: Washer/dryer hookups (utility information not specifically listed)

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 5-bed/2.5-bath single-family listed at $275k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-209 ($-3k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $238k (13.4% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $227k (17.5% below list).
• Recommended offer: $227k (17.5% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 5.4% vs local median 3.4% in Magnolia — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 73/100 on livability (#222 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F.
• Magnolia ISD (rural): math 42% / reading 45% proficiency, ranked #247 of 826 in TX (top 30%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Nichols Sawmill El (math 37% / reading 47%, grade F, #1,335 of 4,322 statewide, top 33%, 562 students, 44% FRL); Magnolia J H (math 35% / reading 37%, grade F, #805 of 1,662 statewide, top 50%, 1,103 students, 57% FRL); Magnolia H S (math 47% / reading 62%, grade C-, #379 of 1,632 statewide, top 26%, 2,248 students, 31% FRL) — zoned schools at 44% FRL track the district average.
• Market conditions: 556 active listings in the ZIP; 6 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 14d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 13,259 units permitted in Montgomery County in 2024 (1,402 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $8k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Montgomery County population projected at +65% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• Only 2 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• 3 sale attempts since 6y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→24/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $226,842 (17.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.83% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.38%
• Cash-on-cash: -3.25%
• DSCR: 0.86
• GRM: 10.1

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $315,580
• List price: $274,900
• Delta: -19.20%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 4 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
23131 Bellini Dr	0.07mi	5/2.5	2,644 (0%)	13mo	$287,000	$109	86
26055 Allan Poe Dr	0.32mi	5/2.5	2,576 (-3%)	13mo	$300,000	$116	70
27076 Holly Dr	0.58mi	4/2.5 (-1)	2,372 (-10%)	18mo	$420,000	$177	36
26418 Park Loop	0.70mi	4/2.0 (-1)	2,340 (-12%)	19mo	$315,000	$135	26

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -21.7%
• Equity multiple: 0.25×
• Total profit: $-57,732
• Equity at exit: $40,988

10-year hold

• IRR: -15.3%
• Equity multiple: 0.13×
• Total profit: $-66,985
• Equity at exit: $23,768

Cash invested: $76,972 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 77355

• Home prices YoY: -30.3%
• Active inventory: 556
• Price-to-rent: 10.1×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,268 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,442
• Tax from tax record: −$413 /mo · $4,961/yr
• Insurance: −$115
• HOA: −$31
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$476
• Net cashflow: $-209

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,532

Max offer price $238,059

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-53	-5% $-131	+0% $-209	+5% $-286	+10% $-364
Rent	-10% $-388	-5% $-298	+0% $-209	+5% $-119	+10% $-29
Rate	-1.0pp $-70	-0.5pp $-139	base $-209	+0.5pp $-280	+1.0pp $-352

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $68,725
• Closing costs: $8,247
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 6 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
23112 Shakespeare Dr Magnolia, TX	5.0	2.5	2620	$2,019	$0.77	3d	1	0.09mi
23112 Shakespeare Dr Magnolia, TX	5.0	2.5	2620	$2,019	$0.77	0d	1	0.09mi
27068 Leonardo Dr Magnolia, TX	5.0	2.5	2571	$1,985	$0.77	14d	1	0.10mi
23048 Shakespeare Dr Magnolia, TX	4.0	2.0	1787	$1,649	$0.92	45d	1	0.12mi
23018 Bellini Dr Magnolia, TX	5.0	2.5	2571	$2,110	$0.82	0d	1	0.17mi
26051 Allan Poe Dr Magnolia, TX	4.0	2.0	2329	$1,895	$0.81	45d	1	0.32mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $31 · $372/yr
• Likely covers: pool

Listing history 11 events

1. 2026-06-21
   pricestatusdays on marketlisting id $274,900 Active 2 DOM
2. 2026-05-04
   historical
3. 2026-03-30
   price $255,000
4. 2026-03-24
   price $265,000
5. 2026-03-07
   price $270,000
6. 2026-02-18
   price $275,000
7. 2026-01-28
   price $280,000
8. 2026-01-10
   listed $285,000 Active
9. 2020-05-18
   soldstatus Sold 610-char remark

   Show marketing remark (610 chars)

   The Driftwood Plan by LGI Homes. This gorgeous two-story home with 5 bedrooms and 2.5 bathrooms offers a true retreat for the whole family, showcasing an expansive family room downstairs and a spacious game room upstairs. The chef-ready kitchen is equipped with granite countertops, abundant cabinet storage, and a full set of Whirlpool brand appliances, including the refrigerator with and ice maker. A private, downstairs master suite includes a separate garden tub, step-in shower and large walk-in closet. Four secondary bedrooms and a large full bathroom with separate vanity area are located upstairs.

10. 2020-04-07
    status Pending 610-char remark

    Show marketing remark (610 chars)

    The Driftwood Plan by LGI Homes. This gorgeous two-story home with 5 bedrooms and 2.5 bathrooms offers a true retreat for the whole family, showcasing an expansive family room downstairs and a spacious game room upstairs. The chef-ready kitchen is equipped with granite countertops, abundant cabinet storage, and a full set of Whirlpool brand appliances, including the refrigerator with and ice maker. A private, downstairs master suite includes a separate garden tub, step-in shower and large walk-in closet. Four secondary bedrooms and a large full bathroom with separate vanity area are located upstairs.

11. 2020-02-13
    listed $233,900 Active 610-char remark

    Show marketing remark (610 chars)

    The Driftwood Plan by LGI Homes. This gorgeous two-story home with 5 bedrooms and 2.5 bathrooms offers a true retreat for the whole family, showcasing an expansive family room downstairs and a spacious game room upstairs. The chef-ready kitchen is equipped with granite countertops, abundant cabinet storage, and a full set of Whirlpool brand appliances, including the refrigerator with and ice maker. A private, downstairs master suite includes a separate garden tub, step-in shower and large walk-in closet. Four secondary bedrooms and a large full bathroom with separate vanity area are located upstairs.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $4,961 · $413/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $5,031 · $419/mo
• Expected delta: +$69/yr (+$6/mo · 1.4%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥111°F today · 24 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $27,221
• − Mortgage interest: −$15,399
• − Property taxes: −$4,961
• − Insurance: −$1,374
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,178
• − Management: −$2,178
• − HOA: −$372
• − Depreciation: −$7,997
• Taxable loss: −$7,238
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,737
• After-tax cash flow: $-765/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Magnolia ISD
• NCES district ID: 4828740
• Math proficiency: 42% ▼ -7.00%
• Reading proficiency: 45% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $71,692
• Composite: 39.46/100
• National rank: #3958
• State rank: #247 of 826 in TX

Livability — Magnolia

• Score: 73/100
• State rank: #222
• US rank: #5442

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A+ Employment B- Housing A+ Health & safety B- User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Montgomery County · 663,713 people
• City population: 32,847
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• Population (ZIP): 32,847
• Household income: $102,066
• Rent vs Own: 17.3% rent · 82.7% own
• Severe rent burden: 209.0

Population outlook (Montgomery County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 713,896 people
• By 2030: 805,263 · +12.8%
• By 2040: 992,708 · +39.1%
• By 2050: 1,179,590 · +65.2%
• By 2075: 1,628,084 · +128.1%
• By 2100: 1,937,880 · +171.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (68%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 68% Hispanic / Latino 25% Two or more races 14% Black 2% Native American 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 18%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 4% Serbian 2% Romanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 7% · Canada, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 82% English-only · Spanish 17%

Political lean MEDSL · Montgomery

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+45.5) · D 26.8% · R 72.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: +7.2pp toward D · 2008: -52.7pp · 2024: -45.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+45.5 2020: R+43.8 2016: R+51.4 2012: R+60.7 2008: R+52.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -116.90%
• Current HPI: 268.5845
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

+17.5% since first listed

11 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-19 Listed $274,900 HARMLS
• 2026-05-04 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2026-03-30 Price Changed $255,000 HARMLS
• 2026-03-24 Price Changed $265,000 HARMLS
• 2026-03-07 Price Changed $270,000 HARMLS
• 2026-02-18 Price Changed $275,000 HARMLS
• 2026-01-28 Price Changed $280,000 HARMLS
• 2026-01-10 Listed $285,000 HARMLS
• 2020-05-18 Sold (MLS) — HARMLS
• 2020-04-07 Pending — HARMLS
• 2020-02-13 Listed $233,900 HARMLS

Property tax history

+50.4%/yr

Latest (2025): $4,961 · -8.5% YoY. Source: county tax records.