2902 Mincey Ter · North Port, FL 34286

$374,400

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 2,169 sqft · Land · 81 Days on market

Built 2026 10,000 sqft lot $173/sqft · 7% above area Est $348k · 7% over

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Why this score? — see what drove the F grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +9.4/30.0
• Schools +5.4/10.0
• ARV discount +4.1/15.0
• Livability +3.8/5.0
• Rent growth +2.8/5.0
• DSCR +2.6/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• 1% rule +1.5/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Under Construction. Welcome to this magnificent new construction home- our most popular floor plan! 3 bedrooms plus a den/study/4th bedroom, two baths with a formal living room, and dining room. Nestled in a vibrant North Port area, this home provides ample room for you, your family, and your guests to enjoy. Vaulted ceilings give this house spaciousness and an airy feel, creating a sense of grandeur in the living area, and allowing the natural light to make the space feel even larger and more inviting. Ceramic tile flooring throughout except in the bedrooms, designer LED recessed lighting, 36' upper cabinets with crown molding, quartz countertops in the kitchen and baths, stainless steel appliances, separate shower with bench seat AND garden tub in the primary bathroom, double pane insulated tilt-in sash windows for energy efficiency and SO much more! This property also comes with a 1-year workmanship, 2-year mechanical and 10-year structural warranty for peace of mind. Only $1000 down to secure this home today and the builder pays most closing costs with the use of a preferred lender!

Key facts

• Quartz countertops
• 36 upper cabinets
• Vaulted ceilings

Tags

• NEW CONSTRUCTION HOME
• VAULTED CEILINGS
• CERAMIC PLANK TILE FLOORING
• DESIGNER LED RECESSED LIGHTING
• 36 UPPER CABINETS
• QUARTZ COUNTERTOPS

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath land listed at $374k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-268 ($-3k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $327k (12.7% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $242k (35.3% below list).
• Recommended offer: $242k (35.3% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 5.4% vs local median 3.8% in North Port — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 75/100 on livability (#252 in FL, #3,975 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F.
• Sarasota (urban): math 63% / reading 63% proficiency, ranked #7 of 73 in FL (top 10%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Toledo Blade Elementary School (math 71% / reading 67%, grade A-, #399 of 2,144 statewide, top 19%, 799 students, 57% FRL); Woodland Middle School (math 57% / reading 57%, grade B, #164 of 571 statewide, top 30%, 978 students, 55% FRL); North Port High School (math 44% / reading 57%, grade D+, #171 of 667 statewide, top 26%, 2,562 students, 54% FRL).
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+1.1%/yr); 852 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; solid renter incomes; 7,466 units permitted in Sarasota County in 2024 (2,138 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 36% of the median local income ($81k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $3k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $11k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Sarasota County population projected at +20% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 81 days — a 6% lower offer ($352k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 3 sale attempts since 20y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $90k; list at $374k implies a 316% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 6→25/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $242,280 (35.3% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 81 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 35% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.65% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.43%
• Cash-on-cash: -3.07%
• DSCR: 0.86
• GRM: 12.9

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $348,450
• List price: $374,400
• Delta: 7.45%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 20 within 2.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 1.12% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -23.3%
• Equity multiple: 0.21×
• Total profit: $-82,470
• Equity at exit: $55,824

10-year hold

• IRR: -22.8%
• Equity multiple: -0.07×
• Total profit: $-112,459
• Equity at exit: $32,371

Cash invested: $104,832 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 34286

• Home prices YoY: -9.5%
• Rents YoY: 1.1%
• Active inventory: 852
• Price-to-rent: 12.9×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,423 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,963
• Tax from tax record: −$63 /mo · $755/yr
• Insurance: −$156
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$509
• Net cashflow: $-268

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,762

Max offer price $326,999

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-56	-5% $-162	+0% $-268	+5% $-803	+10% $-932
Rent	-10% $-460	-5% $-364	+0% $-268	+5% $-173	+10% $-77
Rate	-1.0pp $-80	-0.5pp $-173	base $-268	+0.5pp $-365	+1.0pp $-464

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $93,600
• Closing costs: $11,232
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 1 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
17031 Hillsborough Blvd Port Charlotte, FL	3.0	2.0	1751	$1,850	$1.06	23d	1	1.41mi

Listing history 25 events

1. 2026-06-21
   statusdays on market $374,400 Pending 81 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $374,400 Active 80 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $374,400 Active 79 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $374,400 Active 78 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $374,400 Active 77 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $374,400 Active 75 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $374,400 Active 74 DOM
8. 2026-06-10
   days on market $374,400 Active 72 DOM
9. 2026-06-09
   days on market $374,400 Active 71 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    days on market $374,400 Active 70 DOM
11. 2026-06-08
    days on market $374,400 Active 69 DOM
12. 2026-06-05
    days on market $374,400 Active 66 DOM
13. 2026-06-03
    days on market $374,400 Active 65 DOM
14. 2026-06-02
    days on market $374,400 Active 64 DOM
15. 2026-06-01
    days on market $374,400 Active 63 DOM
16. 2026-05-31
    days on market $374,400 Active 62 DOM
17. 2026-03-30
    price $374,400 1103-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1103 chars)

    Under Construction. Welcome to this magnificent new construction home- our most popular floor plan! 3 bedrooms plus a den/study/4th bedroom, two baths with a formal living room, and dining room. Nestled in a vibrant North Port area, this home provides ample room for you, your family, and your guests to enjoy. Vaulted ceilings give this house spaciousness and an airy feel, creating a sense of grandeur in the living area, and allowing the natural light to make the space feel even larger and more inviting. Ceramic tile flooring throughout except in the bedrooms, designer LED recessed lighting, 36' upper cabinets with crown molding, quartz countertops in the kitchen and baths, stainless steel appliances, separate shower with bench seat AND garden tub in the primary bathroom, double pane insulated tilt-in sash windows for energy efficiency and SO much more! This property also comes with a 1-year workmanship, 2-year mechanical and 10-year structural warranty for peace of mind. Only $1000 down to secure this home today and the builder pays most closing costs with the use of a preferred lender!

18. 2026-03-30
    listed $375,900 Active 1103-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1103 chars)

    Under Construction. Welcome to this magnificent new construction home- our most popular floor plan! 3 bedrooms plus a den/study/4th bedroom, two baths with a formal living room, and dining room. Nestled in a vibrant North Port area, this home provides ample room for you, your family, and your guests to enjoy. Vaulted ceilings give this house spaciousness and an airy feel, creating a sense of grandeur in the living area, and allowing the natural light to make the space feel even larger and more inviting. Ceramic tile flooring throughout except in the bedrooms, designer LED recessed lighting, 36' upper cabinets with crown molding, quartz countertops in the kitchen and baths, stainless steel appliances, separate shower with bench seat AND garden tub in the primary bathroom, double pane insulated tilt-in sash windows for energy efficiency and SO much more! This property also comes with a 1-year workmanship, 2-year mechanical and 10-year structural warranty for peace of mind. Only $1000 down to secure this home today and the builder pays most closing costs with the use of a preferred lender!

19. 2021-04-09
    soldstatus $90,000
20. 2021-04-08
    soldstatus $100,000 Closed 22-char remark

    Show marketing remark (22 chars)

    10 lots in North Port.

21. 2021-03-30
    status Pending 22-char remark

    Show marketing remark (22 chars)

    10 lots in North Port.

22. 2021-03-14
    status Pending 22-char remark

    Show marketing remark (22 chars)

    10 lots in North Port.

23. 2021-03-14
    listed $125,000 Active 22-char remark

    Show marketing remark (22 chars)

    10 lots in North Port.

24. 2006-06-12
    listed $100,000
25. 2006-05-11
    soldstatus $33,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast FL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $755 · $63/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $3,108 · $259/mo
• Expected delta: +$2,352/yr (+$196/mo · 311.4%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 3/10 Moderate FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 10% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 10/10 Extreme 6 d/yr ≥108°F today · 25 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 10/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $29,074
• − Mortgage interest: −$20,972
• − Property taxes: −$755
• − Insurance: −$1,872
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,326
• − Management: −$2,326
• − Depreciation: −$10,892
• Taxable loss: −$10,069
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$2,417
• After-tax cash flow: $-803/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Sarasota
• NCES district ID: 1201680
• Math proficiency: 63% ▼ -8.00%
• Reading proficiency: 63% ▼ -3.00%
• Median HH income: $51,167
• Composite: 53.68/100
• National rank: #1428
• State rank: #7 of 73 in FL

Livability — North Port

• Score: 75/100
• State rank: #252
• US rank: #3975

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A- Crime A+ Employment B+ Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings B

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: North Port, FL
• County: Sarasota County · 448,376 people
• City population: 75,324
• Metro: North Port-Sarasota-Bradenton, FL
• Population (ZIP): 22,534
• Household income: $80,553
• Rent vs Own: 20.6% rent · 79.4% own
• Severe rent burden: 545.0

Population outlook (Sarasota County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 452,380 people
• By 2030: 474,175 · +4.8%
• By 2040: 511,577 · +13.1%
• By 2050: 541,467 · +19.7%
• By 2075: 604,947 · +33.7%
• By 2100: 621,965 · +37.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (81%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 81% Hispanic / Latino 10% Two or more races 8% Black 3% Asian 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 2% Puerto Rican 4% Cuban 2%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 7% Lithuanian 4% Subsaharan African 2%
• Foreign-born: 9% · Canada
• Languages at home: 86% English-only · Spanish 7% Russian/Polish/Slavic 4% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Sarasota

• 2024 margin: R (+18.2) · D 40.5% · R 58.7%
• 2008→2024 swing: -18.1pp toward R · 2008: -0.1pp · 2024: -18.2pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+18.2 2020: R+10.4 2016: R+11.6 2012: R+7.4 2008: R+0.1

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -31.36%
• Current HPI: 297.3707
• Rent YoY: ▲ 1.12%
• Metro: North Port-Sarasota-Bradenton, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

+1034.5% since first listed

9 events — show timeline

• 2026-03-30 Price Changed $374,400 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-03-30 Listed $375,900 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2021-04-09 Sold (Public Records) $90,000 Public Records
• 2021-04-08 Sold (MLS) $100,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2021-03-30 Pending — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2021-03-14 Pending — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2021-03-14 Listed $125,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2006-06-12 Listed $100,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2006-05-11 Sold (Public Records) $33,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+9.0%/yr

Latest (2025): $755 · +8.2% YoY. Source: county tax records.