15967 W El Tiro Rd · Avra Valley, AZ 85653

$265,000

5 bd · 2.0 ba · 390 sqft · Manufactured public records · 4 Days on market

Built 1999 1.00 ac lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +14.9/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• DSCR +4.6/10.0
• Rent growth +3.4/5.0
• Schools +3.1/10.0
• 1% rule +2.9/10.0
• Livability +2.7/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Quiet and private acre lot. Spacious 4 br home needs work. Large living room, split bedroom plan, front and rear deck. Breakfast nook in kitchen. Textured walls. 390sf addition includes 1BR & Family rm. Metal storage and chicken coup stay. Home is being sold as is, no repairs or trash removal will be done. Buyer to pay a $5,500.00 Bankruptcy Trustee Release fee at time of closing. EM deposit required is $1500.Short sale is being negotiated by professionals. Utilities for inspection purposes are the buyer's responsibility.

Key facts

• Workshop spaces
• Covered patio
• Updated bathrooms

Tags

• UPDATED MANUFACTURED HOME
• OUTDOOR SPACES
• COVERED PATIO
• STORAGE SHEDS
• WORKSHOP SPACES
• UPDATED BATHROOMS

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Zoned Pima County - GR1

Exterior

• Parking: Attached garage
• Security: Smoke detector(s)
• Utilities: Water from a water company; Septic tank
• Home design: Manufactured home; One story; Faces west
• Construction: Stucco exterior; Shingle roof; Built area approximately 1,884
• Exterior features: Deck; Patio; East/West exposure; Dirt road access (owner maintenance)

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Gas range
• Bedrooms: Bedrooms not specified
• Flooring: Carpet; Laminate
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Electric heating; Central air; Ceiling fans
• Interior features: Walk-in closets; Skylights; Smoke detectors
• Laundry & utility: Laundry room with washer and dryer

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 5-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $265k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $77 ($925/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $210k (20.7% below list).
• Recommended offer: $210k (20.7% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 54/100 on livability (#275 in AZ) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: crime D-, amenities F, commute F.
• Marana Unified District (4404) (suburban): math 31% / reading 37% proficiency, ranked #83 of 249 in AZ (top 33%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Roadrunner Elementary School (math 12% / reading 22%, grade F, #814 of 1,109 statewide, top 76%, 374 students, 73% FRL); Marana Middle School (math 24% / reading 30%, grade F, #97 of 218 statewide, top 45%, 907 students, 44% FRL); Marana High School (math 21% / reading 24%, grade F, #210 of 381 statewide, top 55%, 2,379 students, 36% FRL) — zoned schools average 51% FRL vs 35% district-wide (16 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+3.4%/yr); 416 active listings in the ZIP; solid renter incomes; 5,268 units permitted in Pima County in 2024 (996 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $8k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Pima County population projected at +8% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.

Negotiation context

• Only 4 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• 5 sale attempts since 24y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $55k; list at $265k implies a 380% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→19/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $210,146 (20.7% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
2. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
3. Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
4. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.79% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.64%
• Cash-on-cash: 1.25%
• DSCR: 1.06
• GRM: 10.5

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.43% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -13.9%
• Equity multiple: 0.50×
• Total profit: $-37,241
• Equity at exit: $39,512

10-year hold

• IRR: -4.6%
• Equity multiple: 0.69×
• Total profit: $-22,821
• Equity at exit: $22,912

Cash invested: $74,200 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Arizona: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

5-day pay-or-quit; AZ courts known for speed; no state rent control; cities preempted by state law.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 85653

• Home prices YoY: -21.8%
• Rents YoY: 3.4%
• Active inventory: 416
• Price-to-rent: 10.5×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,101 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,390
• Tax from tax record: −$83 /mo · $996/yr
• Insurance: −$110
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$441
• Net cashflow: $77

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,004

Max offer price $265,000

Occupancy floor 91%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $227	-5% $152	+0% $77	+5% $2	+10% $-73
Rent	-10% $-89	-5% $-6	+0% $77	+5% $160	+10% $243
Rate	-1.0pp $211	-0.5pp $144	base $77	+0.5pp $8	+1.0pp $-61

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $66,250
• Closing costs: $7,950
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 12 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $265,000 Active 4 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   pricedays on marketlisting id $265,000 Active 1 DOM
3. 2026-05-19
   listed $275,000 Active
4. 2018-08-30
   soldstatus $55,261 Closed 531-char remark

   Show marketing remark (531 chars)

   Quiet and private acre lot. Spacious 4 br home needs work. Large living room, split bedroom plan, front and rear deck. Breakfast nook in kitchen. Textured walls. 390sf addition includes 1BR & Family rm. Metal storage and chicken coup stay. Home is being sold as is, no repairs or trash removal will be done. Buyer to pay a $5,500.00 Bankruptcy Trustee Release fee at time of closing. EM deposit required is $1500.Short sale is being negotiated by professionals. Utilities for inspection purposes are the buyer's responsibility.

5. 2018-08-20
   status Pending 531-char remark

   Show marketing remark (531 chars)

   Quiet and private acre lot. Spacious 4 br home needs work. Large living room, split bedroom plan, front and rear deck. Breakfast nook in kitchen. Textured walls. 390sf addition includes 1BR & Family rm. Metal storage and chicken coup stay. Home is being sold as is, no repairs or trash removal will be done. Buyer to pay a $5,500.00 Bankruptcy Trustee Release fee at time of closing. EM deposit required is $1500.Short sale is being negotiated by professionals. Utilities for inspection purposes are the buyer's responsibility.

6. 2017-12-01
   historical 531-char remark

   Show marketing remark (531 chars)

   Quiet and private acre lot. Spacious 4 br home needs work. Large living room, split bedroom plan, front and rear deck. Breakfast nook in kitchen. Textured walls. 390sf addition includes 1BR & Family rm. Metal storage and chicken coup stay. Home is being sold as is, no repairs or trash removal will be done. Buyer to pay a $5,500.00 Bankruptcy Trustee Release fee at time of closing. EM deposit required is $1500.Short sale is being negotiated by professionals. Utilities for inspection purposes are the buyer's responsibility.

7. 2017-11-16
   listed $50,300 Active 531-char remark

   Show marketing remark (531 chars)

   Quiet and private acre lot. Spacious 4 br home needs work. Large living room, split bedroom plan, front and rear deck. Breakfast nook in kitchen. Textured walls. 390sf addition includes 1BR & Family rm. Metal storage and chicken coup stay. Home is being sold as is, no repairs or trash removal will be done. Buyer to pay a $5,500.00 Bankruptcy Trustee Release fee at time of closing. EM deposit required is $1500.Short sale is being negotiated by professionals. Utilities for inspection purposes are the buyer's responsibility.

8. 2006-04-28
   soldstatus $150,000 353-char remark
9. 2006-04-28
   soldstatus $150,000
10. 2006-01-30
    listed $157,500 353-char remark
11. 2002-09-10
    historical
12. 2002-07-19
    listed $110,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast AZ · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $996 · $83/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,749 · $146/mo
• Expected delta: +$753/yr (+$63/mo · 75.6%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 4/10 Moderate FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 20% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 6/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥110°F today · 19 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $25,218
• − Mortgage interest: −$14,844
• − Property taxes: −$996
• − Insurance: −$1,325
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,017
• − Management: −$2,017
• − Depreciation: −$7,709
• Taxable loss: −$3,691
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$886
• After-tax cash flow: $1,811/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Marana Unified District (4404)
• NCES district ID: 0404630
• Math proficiency: 31% ▼ -11.00%
• Reading proficiency: 37% ▼ -5.00%
• Median HH income: $65,282
• Composite: 30.96/100
• National rank: #6103
• State rank: #83 of 249 in AZ

Livability — Avra Valley

• Score: 54/100
• State rank: #275
• US rank: #23869

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime D- Employment F Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Avra Valley, AZ
• County: Pima County · 1,012,107 people
• Metro: Tucson, AZ
• Population (ZIP): 23,574
• Household income: $86,154
• Rent vs Own: 15.4% rent · 84.6% own
• Severe rent burden: 181.0

Population outlook (Pima County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,066,056 people
• By 2030: 1,086,684 · +1.9%
• By 2040: 1,117,160 · +4.8%
• By 2050: 1,149,778 · +7.9%
• By 2075: 1,271,480 · +19.3%
• By 2100: 1,321,160 · +23.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.55)
• Race & ethnicity: White 61% Hispanic / Latino 27% Two or more races 15% Black 3% Native American 2% Asian 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 22% Puerto Rican 2%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 4% Lithuanian 2% Slovak 2%
• Foreign-born: 6% · Canada
• Languages at home: 88% English-only · Spanish 9% Other Asian/Pacific 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Pima

• 2024 margin: D (+15.2) · D 57.0% · R 41.8% · Other 1.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: +9.1pp toward D · 2008: 6.1pp · 2024: 15.2pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+15.2 2020: D+18.7 2016: D+13.5 2012: D+5.8 2008: D+6.1

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -69.29%
• Current HPI: 249.3403
• Rent YoY: ▲ 3.43%
• Metro: Tucson, AZ
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 4.54%
• F500 in state: 20

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in AZ)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	2	$13B
▸Mining / Metals	1	$23B
▸Environmental Services	1	$16B
▸Metals / Steel	1	$14B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$9B
▸Homebuilding	1	$8B

Price history

+140.9% since first listed

12 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-18 Listed $265,000 MLSSAZ
• 2026-05-28 Listing Removed — MLSSAZ
• 2026-05-19 Listed $275,000 MLSSAZ
• 2018-08-30 Sold (MLS) $55,261 MLSSAZ
• 2018-08-20 Pending — MLSSAZ
• 2017-12-01 Listing Removed — MLSSAZ
• 2017-11-16 Listed $50,300 MLSSAZ
• 2006-04-28 Sold (Public Records) $150,000 Public Records
• 2006-04-28 Sold (MLS) $150,000 MLSSAZ
• 2006-01-30 Listed $157,500 MLSSAZ
• 2002-09-10 Listing Removed — MLSSAZ
• 2002-07-19 Listed $110,000 MLSSAZ

Property tax history

-0.5%/yr

Latest (2025): $996 · +5.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.