39065 Holly Hill Dr · Gonzales, LA 70737

$189,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,980 sqft · Manufactured · 2 Days on market

Built 2007 0.25 ac lot Est $196k · at est.

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Why this score? — see what drove the C grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +21.6/30.0
• ARV discount +9.1/15.0
• DSCR +6.9/10.0
• Schools +4.7/10.0
• 1% rule +4.6/10.0
• Rent growth +3.3/5.0
• Livability +3.2/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Welcome Home to this beautiful 3 bed, 2 bath, spacious double wide home! The large living room features a corner, wood burning fireplace. The spacious kitchen provides tons of cabinet and counter space, convenient island, and large pantry. The primary suite boasts dual vanities, large separate shower, garden tub, and a huge walk-in closets. The 2 additional bedrooms have walk-in closets, and are located on the opposite side of the home from the primary suite. The large driveway, double carport, storage shed, and large backyard are a few more things that will make you want to call this house home! Don't miss out!

Key facts

• 0.25 acre lot
• Garage
• Built 2007

Property features AI

Exterior

• Parking: Attached garage; Carport with space for 2 vehicles; 2 parking spaces total
• Utilities: Public water
• Home design: Manufactured home; Single-story
• Construction: Vinyl siding; Shingle roof
• Exterior features: Wood fencing; Rectangular lot; Shed(s)

Interior

• Kitchen: Oven; Electric cooktop; Dishwasher; Microwave
• Flooring: Carpet; Vinyl
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central heating; Central air; Ceiling fans
• Interior features: Window treatments; Wood-burning fireplace (1)
• Laundry & utility: Washer hookup inside; Electric dryer hookup

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $189k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $287 ($3k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $181k (4.4% below list).
• Recommended offer: $181k (4.4% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 8.1% vs local median 4.5% in Gonzales — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 65/100 on livability (#135 in LA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: employment D, crime F, amenities F.
• Ascension Parish (suburban): math 48% / reading 58% proficiency, ranked #7 of 98 in LA (top 7%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+3.3%/yr); 567 active listings in the ZIP; solid renter incomes; 579 units permitted in Ascension Parish in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Ascension County population projected at +43% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• Only 2 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• 4 sale attempts since 14y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $33k; list at $189k implies a 473% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→22/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $180,739 (4.4% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
2. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
3. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.96% ✗
• Cap rate: 8.12%
• Cash-on-cash: 6.52%
• DSCR: 1.29
• GRM: 8.7

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $196,020
• Comps found: 2

Show comp detail 2 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
39069 Little Creek Dr	0.07mi	3/2.0	2,025 (+2%)	15mo	$199,900	$99	80
39059 Little Creek Rd	0.06mi	3/2.0	1,980 (0%)	23mo	$189,900	$96	78

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.26% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -6.1%
• Equity multiple: 0.77×
• Total profit: $-11,918
• Equity at exit: $28,181

10-year hold

• IRR: 3.8%
• Equity multiple: 1.28×
• Total profit: $14,849
• Equity at exit: $16,341

Cash invested: $52,920 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Louisiana: 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+12
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

5-day notice; no state rent control; civil-law jurisdiction; landlord-favorable.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 70737

• Rents YoY: 3.3%
• Active inventory: 567
• Price-to-rent: 8.7×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,807 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$991
• Tax from tax record: −$70 /mo · $846/yr
• Insurance: −$79
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$380
• Net cashflow: $287

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,444

Max offer price $189,000

Occupancy floor 79%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $47,250
• Closing costs: $5,670
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 9 events

1. 2026-05-07
   status Pending 619-char remark

   Show marketing remark (619 chars)

   Welcome Home to this beautiful 3 bed, 2 bath, spacious double wide home! The large living room features a corner, wood burning fireplace. The spacious kitchen provides tons of cabinet and counter space, convenient island, and large pantry. The primary suite boasts dual vanities, large separate shower, garden tub, and a huge walk-in closets. The 2 additional bedrooms have walk-in closets, and are located on the opposite side of the home from the primary suite. The large driveway, double carport, storage shed, and large backyard are a few more things that will make you want to call this house home! Don't miss out!

2. 2026-05-07
   status Pending

   Show marketing remark (619 chars)

   Welcome Home to this beautiful 3 bed, 2 bath, spacious double wide home! The large living room features a corner, wood burning fireplace. The spacious kitchen provides tons of cabinet and counter space, convenient island, and large pantry. The primary suite boasts dual vanities, large separate shower, garden tub, and a huge walk-in closets. The 2 additional bedrooms have walk-in closets, and are located on the opposite side of the home from the primary suite. The large driveway, double carport, storage shed, and large backyard are a few more things that will make you want to call this house home! Don't miss out!

3. 2026-05-05
   listed $189,000 Active 619-char remark

   Show marketing remark (619 chars)

   Welcome Home to this beautiful 3 bed, 2 bath, spacious double wide home! The large living room features a corner, wood burning fireplace. The spacious kitchen provides tons of cabinet and counter space, convenient island, and large pantry. The primary suite boasts dual vanities, large separate shower, garden tub, and a huge walk-in closets. The 2 additional bedrooms have walk-in closets, and are located on the opposite side of the home from the primary suite. The large driveway, double carport, storage shed, and large backyard are a few more things that will make you want to call this house home! Don't miss out!

4. 2026-05-05
   listed $189,000 Active

   Show marketing remark (619 chars)

   Welcome Home to this beautiful 3 bed, 2 bath, spacious double wide home! The large living room features a corner, wood burning fireplace. The spacious kitchen provides tons of cabinet and counter space, convenient island, and large pantry. The primary suite boasts dual vanities, large separate shower, garden tub, and a huge walk-in closets. The 2 additional bedrooms have walk-in closets, and are located on the opposite side of the home from the primary suite. The large driveway, double carport, storage shed, and large backyard are a few more things that will make you want to call this house home! Don't miss out!

5. 2012-07-24
   listed $129,900
6. 2012-07-24
   listed $129,900
7. 2007-05-07
   soldstatus $32,995
8. 2007-05-07
   soldstatus $133,859
9. 2003-03-13
   soldstatus $495,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast LA · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $846 · $70/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,040 · $87/mo
• Expected delta: +$194/yr (+$16/mo · 22.9%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 4/10 Moderate FEMA zone X · 23% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥107°F today · 22 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $21,689
• − Mortgage interest: −$10,587
• − Property taxes: −$846
• − Insurance: −$945
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,735
• − Management: −$1,735
• − Depreciation: −$5,498
• Taxable income: $342
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$82
• After-tax cash flow: $3,367/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Ascension Parish
• NCES district ID: 2200090
• Math proficiency: 48% ▼ -31.00%
• Reading proficiency: 58% ▼ -25.00%
• Median HH income: $68,423
• Composite: 47.0/100
• National rank: #2347
• State rank: #7 of 98 in LA

Livability — Gonzales

• Score: 65/100
• State rank: #135
• US rank: #12429

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment D Housing A+ Health & safety C+ User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Ascension Parish · 98,362 people
• City population: 49,084
• Metro: Baton Rouge, LA
• Population (ZIP): 49,084
• Household income: $82,521
• Rent vs Own: 22.0% rent · 78.0% own
• Severe rent burden: 863.0

Population outlook (Ascension County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 145,480 people
• By 2030: 158,329 · +8.8%
• By 2040: 183,741 · +26.3%
• By 2050: 207,615 · +42.7%
• By 2075: 260,244 · +78.9%
• By 2100: 289,576 · +99.0%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.57)
• Race & ethnicity: White 59% Black 26% Hispanic / Latino 10% Two or more races 7%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 6%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 15% Serbian 1% Slovak 1%
• Foreign-born: 7% · Canada
• Languages at home: 89% English-only · Spanish 9% French/Haitian/Cajun 1% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Ascension

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+34.0) · D 32.2% · R 66.1% · Other 1.7%
• 2008→2024 swing: +1.7pp toward D · 2008: -35.7pp · 2024: -34.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+34.0 2020: R+32.5 2016: R+36.0 2012: R+34.3 2008: R+35.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -89.49%
• Current HPI: 145.3384
• Rent YoY: ▲ 3.26%
• Metro: Baton Rouge, LA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.29%
• F500 in state: 10

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in LA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Telecommunications	2	$23B
▸Utilities	1	$12B
▸Wholesale / Distribution	1	$5B
▸Advertising	1	$2B

Price history

-61.8% since first listed

9 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-07 Pending — AcadianaMLS
• 2026-05-07 Pending — GBRMLS
• 2026-05-05 Listed $189,000 GBRMLS
• 2026-05-05 Listed $189,000 AcadianaMLS
• 2012-07-24 Listed $129,900 AcadianaMLS
• 2012-07-24 Listed $129,900 GBRMLS
• 2007-05-07 Sold (Public Records) $133,859 Public Records
• 2007-05-07 Sold (Public Records) $32,995 Public Records
• 2003-03-13 Sold (Public Records) $495,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+1.5%/yr

Latest (2025): $846 · -1.7% YoY. Source: county tax records.