5602 Thrush Dr · Houston, TX 77033

$155,000

3 bd · 1.5 ba · 1,323 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 55 Days on market

Built 1960 7,148 sqft lot Est $200k · 22% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +26.1/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• DSCR +8.8/10.0
• 1% rule +7.4/10.0
• Rent growth +3.9/5.0
• Livability +3.7/5.0
• Schools +2.7/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Excellent opportunity for a buyer to create a space in their unique vision. The home features a great layout with 3 generously sized bedrooms filled with natural light. Enjoy the large office space just off the dining room area to help facilitate your work from home needs. The huge yard provides ample opportunities for entertaining! Schedule your showing today!

Key facts

• 7,148 sq ft lot
• Garage
• Built 1960

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.5-bath single-family listed at $155k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $390 ($5k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $155k).
• Recommended offer: $150k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 9.3% vs local median 3.1% in Houston — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 74/100 on livability (#184 in TX, #4,771 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: amenities A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: crime F.
• Houston ISD (urban): math 27% / reading 35% proficiency, ranked #593 of 826 in TX (top 72%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 71% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Thomas Middle (math 3% / reading 13%, grade F, #1,654 of 1,662 statewide, top 100%, 526 students, 98% FRL); Worthing H S (math 22% / reading 21%, grade F, #1,377 of 1,632 statewide, top 85%, 827 students, 96% FRL) — zoned schools average 97% FRL vs 71% district-wide (26 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 15% at this address vs 31% district-wide (-16 pts) — the specific schools serving this property underperform the Houston ISD average; the district grade overstates school quality for this exact location.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+5.5%/yr); 338 active listings in the ZIP; 33 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 25d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 45% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; lower-income renter base — watch delinquency; 29,883 units permitted in Harris County in 2024 (8,621 in 5+ unit buildings).
• At $1,918/mo this rent would consume 60% of the median local household income ($38k/yr) (locally 1728% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $5k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Harris County population projected at +47% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 5.5% rent growth), your $43k cash investment doubles in ~8 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 55 days — a 3% lower offer ($150k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→25/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $150,350 (3.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 55 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1960 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.24% ✓
• Cap rate: 9.31%
• Cash-on-cash: 10.78%
• DSCR: 1.48
• GRM: 6.7

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $199,773
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
5707 Lyndhurst Dr	0.58mi	3/2.0	1,329 (+0%)	1mo	$200,000	$150	69
5234 Wilmington St	0.35mi	3/1.0	1,230 (-7%)	1mo	$76,500	$62	69
5763 Thrush Dr	0.39mi	3/1.5	1,496 (+13%)	2mo	$225,000	$150	59
4918 Carmen St	0.65mi	3/2.0	1,258 (-5%)	1mo	$213,000	$169	58
8126 Marcy Dr	0.55mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,240 (-6%)	1mo	$195,000	$157	56
5842 Beldart St	0.56mi	3/2.0	1,185 (-10%)	1mo	$194,700	$164	53
5822 Beldart St	0.51mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,200 (-9%)	2mo	$217,000	$181	52
5831 Lyndhurst Dr	0.65mi	3/1.0	1,212 (-8%)	2mo	$105,000	$87	52
9211 Vinearbor St	0.66mi	3/1.0	1,192 (-10%)	1mo	$179,900	$151	50
5879 Belneath St	0.68mi	3/1.0	1,200 (-9%)	1mo	$95,000	$79	50
4842 Larkspur St	0.69mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,200 (-9%)	2mo	$200,000	$167	44
5879 Belcrest St	0.74mi	3/2.0	1,485 (+12%)	0mo	$199,000	$134	42

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 5.45% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 2.7%
• Equity multiple: 1.11×
• Total profit: $4,622
• Equity at exit: $23,111

10-year hold

• IRR: 14.6%
• Equity multiple: 2.32×
• Total profit: $57,149
• Equity at exit: $13,402

Cash invested: $43,400 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 77033

• Home prices YoY: -16.3%
• Rents YoY: 5.5%
• Active inventory: 338
• Price-to-rent: 6.7×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,918 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$813
• Tax from tax record: −$248 /mo · $2,970/yr
• Insurance: −$65
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$403
• Net cashflow: $390

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,424

Max offer price $155,000

Occupancy floor 75%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $478	-5% $434	+0% $390	+5% $346	+10% $302
Rent	-10% $238	-5% $314	+0% $390	+5% $466	+10% $541
Rate	-1.0pp $468	-0.5pp $429	base $390	+0.5pp $350	+1.0pp $309

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $38,750
• Closing costs: $4,650
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 33 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
5407 Thrush Dr Houston, TX	4.0	1.0	1407	$1,495	$1.06	14d	1	0.16mi
5036 Mallow St Houston, TX	3.0	3.0	1472	$2,050	$1.39	44d	1	0.42mi
5623 Bellfort St Houston, TX	4.0	1.0	1320	$1,700	$1.29	15d	1	0.46mi
9509 Merle St Unit 9509A Houston, TX	4.0	2.5	1404	$1,500	$1.07	44d	1	0.47mi
5767 Belcrest St Houston, TX	4.0	2.0	1480	$1,790	$1.21	44d	1	0.51mi
5012 Higgins St Unit B Houston, TX	3.0	2.5	1611	$1,650	$1.02	25d	1	0.63mi
4918 Wilmington St Unit A Houston, TX	3.0	3.0	1300	$2,100	$1.62	44d	1	0.66mi
4921a Pederson St Unit A Houston, TX	3.0	2.0	1765	$2,150	$1.22	13d	1	0.73mi
5222 Northridge Dr Houston, TX	4.0	2.0	1300	$1,850	$1.42	25d	1	0.75mi
4810 Wilmington St Unit A Houston, TX	3.0	2.0	1165	$1,650	$1.42	44d	1	0.78mi
5942 Ridgeway Dr Houston, TX	4.0	2.0	1490	$2,250	$1.51	44d	1	0.82mi
7918 Jutland Rd Houston, TX	3.0	1.0	996	$1,295	$1.30	44d	1	0.84mi
5408 Groveton St Houston, TX	4.0	2.0	1472	$1,983	$1.35	0d	1	0.84mi
4723 Mallow St Houston, TX	3.0	2.5	1472	$1,850	$1.26	6d	1	0.84mi
5818 Glenhurst Dr Houston, TX	3.0	2.0	1441	$1,750	$1.21	0d	1	0.84mi
5314 Longmeadow St Houston, TX	3.0	3.0	1646	$1,900	$1.15	44d	1	0.93mi
7710 Darnay Dr Houston, TX	3.0	3.0	1635	$2,095	$1.28	44d	1	1.07mi
4538 Clover St Houston, TX	4.0	2.0	1768	$1,595	$0.90	44d	1	1.13mi
4526 Knoxville St Unit A Houston, TX	3.0	2.5	1474	$1,775	$1.20	15d	1	1.19mi
8107 Calhoun Rd Houston, TX	3.0	2.5	1304	$2,250	$1.73	25d	1	1.19mi
5458 Osprey Dr Houston, TX	3.0	2.0	1614	$1,595	$0.99	21d	1	1.19mi
4514 Galesburg St Unit B Houston, TX	3.0	2.5	1680	$3,500	$2.08	25d	1	1.24mi
8521 Dosia St Houston, TX	3.0	2.0	1028	$1,665	$1.62	13d	1	1.25mi
4601 White Rock St Unit A Houston, TX	3.0	2.5	1700	$2,500	$1.47	44d	1	1.31mi
10902 Faircroft Dr Houston, TX	3.0	1.0	1308	$1,480	$1.13	44d	1	1.31mi
4613 Bricker St Unit B Houston, TX	3.0	2.5	1600	$2,300	$1.44	44d	1	1.32mi
5954 Doolittle Blvd Houston, TX	3.0	2.0	1371	$1,575	$1.15	44d	1	1.33mi
4609 Bricker St Unit B Houston, TX	3.0	2.5	1300	$3,500	$2.69	13d	1	1.34mi
4609 Bricker St Unit C Houston, TX	2.0	1.5	1100	$3,200	$2.91	13d	1	1.34mi
4609 Bricker St Unit ABC Houston, TX	3.0	2.5	1375	$3,500	$2.55	12d	1	1.34mi
7358 Guadalcanal Rd Houston, TX	3.0	3.0	1768	$2,195	$1.24	44d	1	1.35mi
5426 Greylog Dr Houston, TX	3.0	2.0	1205	$1,750	$1.45	25d	1	1.39mi
4406 Sterling St Houston, TX	3.0	2.5	1840	$1,999	$1.09	17d	1	1.44mi

Listing history 7 events

1. 2026-03-27
   status Pending
2. 2026-03-25
   status Pending
3. 2025-08-17
   status Pending
4. 2025-07-25
   historical Active Under Contract
5. 2025-06-24
   listed $155,000 Active
6. 2025-06-19
   historical $155,000
7. 1988-01-03
   soldstatus

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $2,970 · $248/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,970 · $248/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 4/10 Moderate FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 20% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥109°F today · 25 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $23,011
• − Mortgage interest: −$8,682
• − Property taxes: −$2,970
• − Insurance: −$775
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,841
• − Management: −$1,841
• − Depreciation: −$4,509
• Taxable income: $2,392
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$574
• After-tax cash flow: $4,105/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Houston ISD
• NCES district ID: 4823640
• Math proficiency: 27% ▼ -18.00%
• Reading proficiency: 35% ▼ -6.00%
• Median HH income: $46,054
• Composite: 26.63/100
• National rank: #7173
• State rank: #593 of 826 in TX

Livability — Houston

• Score: 74/100
• State rank: #184
• US rank: #4771

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment C Housing A+ Health & safety A- User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Houston, TX
• County: Harris County · 4,702,590 people
• City population: 3,226,434
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• Population (ZIP): 29,154
• Household income: $38,071
• Rent vs Own: 41.0% rent · 59.0% own
• Severe rent burden: 1728.0

Population outlook (Harris County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 5,571,493 people
• By 2030: 6,089,821 · +9.3%
• By 2040: 7,142,806 · +28.2%
• By 2050: 8,185,864 · +46.9%
• By 2075: 10,574,329 · +89.8%
• By 2100: 12,109,958 · +117.4%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Majority Black (55%)
• Race & ethnicity: Black 55% Hispanic / Latino 43% Two or more races 17% Native American 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 35%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 18% · Canada
• Languages at home: 61% English-only · Spanish 39%

Political lean MEDSL · Harris

• 2024 margin: Lean D (+5.5) · D 52.0% · R 46.4% · Other 1.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: +3.9pp toward D · 2008: 1.6pp · 2024: 5.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+5.5 2020: D+13.3 2016: D+12.4 2012: D+0.1 2008: D+1.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -41.49%
• Current HPI: 212.6472
• Rent YoY: ▲ 5.45%
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

+0.0% since first listed

7 events — show timeline

• 2026-03-27 Pending — HARMLS
• 2026-03-25 Pending — HARMLS
• 2025-08-17 Pending — HARMLS
• 2025-07-25 Contingent — HARMLS
• 2025-06-24 Listed $155,000 HARMLS
• 2025-06-19 Coming Soon $155,000 HARMLS
• 1988-01-03 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records

Property tax history

+7.4%/yr

Latest (2025): $2,970 · +1.2% YoY. Source: county tax records.