4323 Jamie Ln E · Houston, TX 77048

$205,000

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,430 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 225 Days on market

Built 1956 0.25 ac lot $143/sqft · 13% below area Est $234k · 13% under ↓ 16% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the C+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +21.7/30.0
• ARV discount +13.2/15.0
• DSCR +6.9/10.0
• Appreciation +6.3/10.0
• 1% rule +5.2/10.0
• Livability +3.7/5.0
• Rent growth +2.8/5.0
• Schools +2.7/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks MLS

Beautiful and very spacious property south of highway 288, completely remodeled and ready for its new owner

Key facts

• Completely remodeled
• Spacious property
• 0.25 acre lot

Tags

• SPACIOUS PROPERTY
• COMPLETELY REMODELED

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $205k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $313 ($4k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $205k).
• Recommended offer: $180k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 8.1% vs local median 3.1% in Houston — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 74/100 on livability (#184 in TX, #4,771 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: amenities A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: schools D, crime F.
• Houston ISD (urban): math 27% / reading 35% proficiency, ranked #593 of 826 in TX (top 72%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 71% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+1.2%/yr); 303 active listings in the ZIP; 11 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 23d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 29,883 units permitted in Harris County in 2024 (8,621 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 44% of the median local income ($57k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $7k of equity ($1k loan paydown + $5k appreciation (2.6% local appreciation)).
• Harris County population projected at +47% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (2.6% appreciation + 1.2% rent growth), your $57k cash investment doubles in ~6 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 6, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$36k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 225 days — a 12% lower offer ($180k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1956 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→22/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $180,400 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 225 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1956 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.02% ✓
• Cap rate: 8.13%
• Cash-on-cash: 6.55%
• DSCR: 1.29
• GRM: 8.1

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $234,474
• List price: $205,000
• Delta: -12.57%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 8 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
4123 Deerbriar Run Dr	0.35mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,440 (+1%)	12mo	$236,000	$164	68
13907 Prosperity Ridge Dr	0.19mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,505 (+5%)	13mo	$240,000	$159	67
14142 Bishop Bend Ln	0.53mi	4/2.5	1,505 (+5%)	3mo	$225,000	$150	62
4123 Mineral Haven Dr	0.31mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,505 (+5%)	24mo	$235,000	$156	52
14103 Ballfour Park Ln	0.43mi	4/2.5	1,514 (+6%)	24mo	$249,900	$165	48
13761 Cottingham St	0.60mi	4/2.0	1,344 (-6%)	21mo	$550,000	$409	45
14215 Dreamscape Cir	0.61mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,226 (-14%)	3mo	$224,900	$183	40
13319 Cottingham St	0.73mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,320 (-8%)	11mo	$549,000	$416	39

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

2.61% appreciation · 1.17% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 11.5%
• Equity multiple: 1.64×
• Total profit: $36,668
• Equity at exit: $87,729

10-year hold

• IRR: 13.0%
• Equity multiple: 2.80×
• Total profit: $103,053
• Equity at exit: $131,839

Cash invested: $57,400 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 77048

• Home prices YoY: 1.0%
• Rents YoY: 1.2%
• Active inventory: 303
• Price-to-rent: 8.1×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,097 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,075
• Tax from tax record: −$183 /mo · $2,196/yr
• Insurance: −$85
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$440
• Net cashflow: $313

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,701

Max offer price $205,000

Occupancy floor 80%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $429	-5% $371	+0% $313	+5% $255	+10% $197
Rent	-10% $148	-5% $231	+0% $313	+5% $396	+10% $479
Rate	-1.0pp $417	-0.5pp $366	base $313	+0.5pp $260	+1.0pp $206

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $51,250
• Closing costs: $6,150
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 11 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
13555 Cullen Blvd Houston, TX	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	917	$1,900	$2.07	44d	35	0.59mi
4814 Centipede Rd Unit B Houston, TX	3.0	2.5	1701	$1,950	$1.15	22d	1	0.85mi
3918 Almeda-Genoa Rd Houston, TX	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1038	$2,220	$2.14	0d	27	0.90mi
13442 Lucky Bill Ln Houston, TX	3.0	2.0	1427	$2,195	$1.54	22d	1	0.97mi
4023 Almond Lake Dr Houston, TX	3.0	2.0	1414	$1,980	$1.40	44d	1	0.98mi
13427 Lucky Bill Ln Houston, TX	3.0	2.5	1443	$2,095	$1.45	8d	1	1.02mi
13311 Lucky Bill Ln Houston, TX	3.0	2.5	1597	$2,250	$1.41	44d	1	1.11mi
3403 Orchid Trace Ln Houston, TX	3.0	2.5	1602	$1,920	$1.20	3d	1	1.29mi
12210 Roandale Dr Houston, TX	3.0	2.0	1738	$1,775	$1.02	44d	1	1.37mi
12227 Cape Hyannis Dr Houston, TX	3.0	2.0	1432	$1,705	$1.19	14d	1	1.37mi
5425 E Orem Dr Houston, TX	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	910	$1,499	$1.65	0d	13	1.50mi

Listing history 21 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $205,000 Active 225 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $205,000 Active 224 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $205,000 Active 223 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $205,000 Active 222 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $205,000 Active 220 DOM
6. 2026-06-10
   days on market $205,000 Active 216 DOM
7. 2026-06-08
   days on market $205,000 Active 215 DOM
8. 2026-06-07
   days on market $205,000 Active 214 DOM
9. 2026-06-04
   days on market $205,000 Active 211 DOM
10. 2026-06-01
    days on market $205,000 Active 208 DOM
11. 2026-05-31
    days on market $205,000 Active 207 DOM
12. 2026-05-08
    price $205,000 107-char remark

    Show marketing remark (107 chars)

    Beautiful and very spacious property south of highway 288, completely remodeled and ready for its new owner

13. 2025-12-13
    price $230,000 107-char remark

    Show marketing remark (107 chars)

    Beautiful and very spacious property south of highway 288, completely remodeled and ready for its new owner

14. 2025-11-05
    listed $245,000 Active 107-char remark

    Show marketing remark (107 chars)

    Beautiful and very spacious property south of highway 288, completely remodeled and ready for its new owner

15. 2024-11-15
    soldstatus
16. 2022-12-11
    historical
17. 2021-12-01
    soldstatus
18. 2009-02-04
    soldstatus
19. 2007-06-25
    soldstatus
20. 2002-01-07
    soldstatus
21. 1989-04-18
    soldstatus

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $2,196 · $183/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $3,752 · $313/mo
• Expected delta: +$1,555/yr (+$130/mo · 70.8%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 3/10 Moderate FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 7% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥108°F today · 22 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $25,168
• − Mortgage interest: −$11,483
• − Property taxes: −$2,196
• − Insurance: −$1,025
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,013
• − Management: −$2,013
• − Depreciation: −$5,964
• Taxable income: $473
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$113
• After-tax cash flow: $3,647/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Houston ISD
• NCES district ID: 4823640
• Math proficiency: 27% ▼ -18.00%
• Reading proficiency: 35% ▼ -6.00%
• Median HH income: $46,054
• Composite: 26.63/100
• National rank: #7173
• State rank: #593 of 826 in TX

Livability — Houston

• Score: 74/100
• State rank: #184
• US rank: #4771

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment C Housing A+ Health & safety A- User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Houston, TX
• County: Harris County · 4,702,590 people
• City population: 3,226,434
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• Population (ZIP): 21,151
• Household income: $56,747
• Rent vs Own: 41.4% rent · 58.6% own
• Severe rent burden: 1117.0

Population outlook (Harris County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 5,571,493 people
• By 2030: 6,089,821 · +9.3%
• By 2040: 7,142,806 · +28.2%
• By 2050: 8,185,864 · +46.9%
• By 2075: 10,574,329 · +89.8%
• By 2100: 12,109,958 · +117.4%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly Black (69%)
• Race & ethnicity: Black 69% Hispanic / Latino 24% Two or more races 6% Asian 3% White 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 17% Puerto Rican 1%
• Foreign-born: 12% · Canada, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 76% English-only · Spanish 20% Tagalog/Filipino 2% Vietnamese 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Harris

• 2024 margin: Lean D (+5.5) · D 52.0% · R 46.4% · Other 1.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: +3.9pp toward D · 2008: 1.6pp · 2024: 5.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+5.5 2020: D+13.3 2016: D+12.4 2012: D+0.1 2008: D+1.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 2.61%
• Current HPI: 266.4468
• Rent YoY: ▲ 1.17%
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

-16.3% since first listed

10 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-08 Price Changed $205,000 HARMLS
• 2025-12-13 Price Changed $230,000 HARMLS
• 2025-11-05 Listed $245,000 HARMLS
• 2024-11-15 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2022-12-11 Rental Removed — RENT.
• 2021-12-01 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2009-02-04 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2007-06-25 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2002-01-07 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 1989-04-18 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records

Property tax history

+6.6%/yr

Latest (2025): $2,196 · +9.3% YoY. Source: county tax records.