3014 Lake Shore Dr Unit 12E · Lake George, NY 12845

$139,000

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,667 sqft · SingleFamily · 1 Days on market

Built 1990 435 sqft lot $460/mo HOA · 18% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the A- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +6.1/10.0
• Livability +3.2/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks MLS

Sought after AFFORDABLE LAKE VIEW unit providing 10 weeks of fractional ownership per year with every 4th year providing additional week. Fantastic value for your money. Sleeps 6 comfortably with pool, sandy beach, floating dock for deep water swimming. Docking for 24' boat. On site hot tub, sauna, indoor lap pool and workout area. Beautiful kitchen, fireplace and lake view deck. On site rental management which is available if you choose not to use your week/weeks. The Quarters is also listed with the RCI Timeshare Network to facilitate trading to other RCI resorts. Worry free living at its best and only a few minutes on the trolly to Lake George Village. Deeded Access W/Dock, Dock, Excellent Condition

Key facts

• Outdoor pool
• Sauna
• Laundry room

Tags

• DOCK SPACE
• OUTDOOR POOL
• SAUNA
• EXERCISE AREA
• LAUNDRY ROOM
• GRILL FRONT

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Unit number 12E
• HOA & community: Condo association with monthly fee of $460; Association amenities include beach access, boat dock, lake access and recreation facilities; Association fee includes cable TV, cooling, electricity, gas, heating, insurance, grounds maintenance, security, sewer, snow removal, trash and water

Exterior

• Parking: One paved parking space
• Utilities: Public water; Septic tank with shared septic
• Home design: Condominium; Entry located on the first level; Wood siding construction
• Construction: Wood siding construction
• Exterior features: Paved driveway; Seasonal, shared lake access to Lake George

Interior

• Kitchen: Electric oven; Freezer; Microwave; Oven; Range; Range hood; Refrigerator
• Bedrooms: Two bedrooms located on the first level; Loft on the third level (flex space)
• Bathrooms: Two full bathrooms — one on the first level and one on the second level
• Heating & cooling: Electric heating; Central air conditioning
• Interior features: 10 total rooms; Entry on the first level

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $139k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $636 ($8k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($3k rent vs $139k).
• Cap rate 11.8% vs local median 2.8% in Lake George — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 63/100 on livability (#788 in NY) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Watch: employment C-, cost of living D+, crime D.
• Lake George Central School District (rural): math 68% / reading 73% proficiency, ranked #131 of 590 in NY (top 22%) — strong family-tenant draw, lease renewals of 3-5y typical; only 17% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Zoned schools: Lake George Elementary School (math 62% / reading 82%, grade A-, #378 of 2,108 statewide, top 20%, 300 students, 24% FRL); Lake George Junior-Senior High School (math 72% / reading 62%, grade B, #746 of 1,100 statewide, top 69%, 330 students, 19% FRL) — zoned schools at 22% FRL track the district average.
• Market conditions: 110 active listings in the ZIP; 180 units permitted in Warren County in 2024 (40 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $15k of equity ($961 loan paydown + $14k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Warren County population projected at -19% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (10.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $39k cash investment doubles in ~2 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 3, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$38k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• Only 1 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• 2 sale attempts since 7y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $68k; list at $139k implies a 104% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Recommended offer $139,000

Questions for the listing agent

1. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
4. Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.87% ✓
• Cap rate: 11.78%
• Cash-on-cash: 19.60%
• DSCR: 1.87
• GRM: 4.5

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $605,121
• Comps found: 3

Show comp detail 3 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
11 Village Estate Ln	0.41mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,688 (+1%)	12mo	$725,000	$430	64
15 Deer Run Rd	0.35mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,590 (-5%)	14mo	$439,900	$277	59
50 Sherrick Dr	0.68mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,600 (-4%)	8mo	$580,000	$363	50

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 39.0%
• Equity multiple: 3.99×
• Total profit: $116,504
• Equity at exit: $125,222

10-year hold

• IRR: 33.6%
• Equity multiple: 9.01×
• Total profit: $311,892
• Equity at exit: $270,046

Cash invested: $38,920 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State New York: 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

NYC rent stabilization (~1M units); 2019 HSTPA strengthened tenant rights; courts deeply backlogged.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 12845

• Home prices YoY: 3.5%
• Active inventory: 110
• Price-to-rent: 4.5×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,603 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$729
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$174 /mo · $2,085/yr
• Insurance: −$58
• HOA: −$460
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$547
• Net cashflow: $636

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,798

Max offer price $139,000

Occupancy floor 71%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $34,750
• Closing costs: $4,170
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $460 · $5,520/yr
• Likely covers: waterpool

Listing history 2 events

1. 2026-06-18
   remarks 560-char remark
2. 2026-06-18
   listed $139,000 Active 1 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 2/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 3/10 Moderate 8 d/yr ≥93°F today · 19 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low 2% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $31,233
• − Mortgage interest: −$7,786
• − Property taxes: −$2,085
• − Insurance: −$695
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,499
• − Management: −$2,499
• − HOA: −$5,520
• − Depreciation: −$4,044
• Taxable income: $6,106
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,465
• After-tax cash flow: $6,161/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Lake George Central School District
• NCES district ID: 3616470
• Math proficiency: 68% ▼ -8.00%
• Reading proficiency: 73% ▲ 9.00%
• Median HH income: $65,873
• Composite: 61.29/100
• National rank: #777
• State rank: #131 of 590 in NY

Livability — Lake George

• Score: 63/100
• State rank: #788
• US rank: #15111

Category grades

Amenities D Commute F Cost of living D+ Crime D Employment C- Housing C Health & safety D- User ratings B+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 4,389

Population outlook (Warren County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 62,372 people
• By 2030: 60,491 · -3.0%
• By 2040: 55,616 · -10.8%
• By 2050: 50,437 · -19.1%
• By 2075: 40,843 · -34.5%
• By 2100: 31,159 · -50.0%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (92%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 92% Hispanic / Latino 5% Two or more races 3% Black 1%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 7% Italian 4% Iranian 3%
• Foreign-born: 2% · Canada
• Languages at home: 96% English-only · Spanish 2% French/Haitian/Cajun 1% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Warren

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 47.9% · R 52.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: -6.9pp toward R · 2008: 2.6pp · 2024: -4.2pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+4.2 2020: R+0.2 2016: R+10.6 2012: D+2.1 2008: D+2.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 12.18%
• Current HPI: 364.9782
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.60%
• F500 in state: 92

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	10	$950B
▸Consumer Goods	9	$162B
▸Insurance	4	$225B
▸Telecommunications	2	$144B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$112B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$69B

Price history

+104.4% since first listed

4 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-17 Listed $139,000 Global MLS
• 2020-02-13 Sold (MLS) $68,000 Global MLS
• 2020-01-06 Pending — Global MLS
• 2019-10-03 Listed $68,000 Global MLS