407 Phelps Cir · Cloudcroft, NM 88317

$193,000

1 bd · 1.0 ba · 444 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 167 Days on market

Built 1960 1,742 sqft lot ↓ 1% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +15.6/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• DSCR +4.8/10.0
• Schools +3.5/10.0
• 1% rule +3.0/10.0
• Livability +3.0/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Darling Cabin nestled in the coveted mountain top community. This beautifully renovated retreat features abundant natural light through lovely windows, skylights, a cozy den, and a well- appointed pantry with amply storage throughout. Enjoy indoor and outdoor living with a screened- in back porch, side deck with built-in benches, a detached utility room, and an additional storage shed perfect for entertaining or relaxing in nature. This charming dollhouse- style cabin offers both comfort and character. Come experience the charm and become part of the fun- loving Mountain top community! Owner has a new Mexico real estate license.

Key facts

• 1,742 sq ft lot
• Built 1960
• Listed 166 days

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 1-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $193k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $83 ($992/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $155k (19.6% below list).
• Recommended offer: $155k (19.6% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 60/100 on livability (#107 in NM) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+; Watch: health & safety C-, crime F, amenities F.
• Cloudcroft Municipal Schools (rural): math 28% / reading 48% proficiency, ranked #12 of 95 in NM (top 13%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Cloudcroft Elementary (math 32% / reading 82%, grade C+, #14 of 68 statewide, top 19%, 165 students, 47% FRL); Cloudcroft Middle (math 22% / reading 62%, grade D-, #5 of 27 statewide, top 15%, 101 students, 43% FRL); Cloudcroft High (math 30% / reading 70%, grade D+, #36 of 110 statewide, top 45%, 113 students, 45% FRL).
• Market conditions: 153 active listings in the ZIP; 6 units permitted in Otero County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Otero County population projected to shrink 7% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 167 days — a 12% lower offer ($170k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wildfire risk — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $155,233 (19.6% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 167 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 20% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1960 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.80% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.81%
• Cash-on-cash: 1.83%
• DSCR: 1.08
• GRM: 10.4

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -13.4%
• Equity multiple: 0.52×
• Total profit: $-26,105
• Equity at exit: $28,777

10-year hold

• IRR: -4.6%
• Equity multiple: 0.70×
• Total profit: $-16,334
• Equity at exit: $16,687

Cash invested: $54,040 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 55 Moderately Landlord-Leaning
• State New Mexico: 55 Moderately Landlord-Leaning · D+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice but with cure rights; relocation assistance in some cities.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 88317

• Home prices YoY: -25.1%
• Active inventory: 153
• Price-to-rent: 10.4×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,552 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,012
• Tax from tax record: −$51 /mo · $614/yr
• Insurance: −$80
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$326
• Net cashflow: $83

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,448

Max offer price $193,000

Occupancy floor 90%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $192	-5% $137	+0% $83	+5% $28	+10% $-27
Rent	-10% $-40	-5% $21	+0% $83	+5% $144	+10% $205
Rate	-1.0pp $180	-0.5pp $132	base $83	+0.5pp $33	+1.0pp $-18

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $48,250
• Closing costs: $5,790
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 20 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $193,000 Active 167 DOM
2. 2026-06-19
   days on market $193,000 Active 165 DOM
3. 2026-06-18
   days on market $193,000 Active 164 DOM
4. 2026-06-17
   days on market $193,000 Active 163 DOM
5. 2026-06-16
   days on market $193,000 Active 162 DOM
6. 2026-06-15
   days on market $193,000 Active 161 DOM
7. 2026-06-14
   days on market $193,000 Active 159 DOM
8. 2026-06-12
   days on market $193,000 Active 158 DOM
9. 2026-06-09
   days on market $193,000 Active 155 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    days on market $193,000 Active 154 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    days on market $193,000 Active 153 DOM
12. 2026-06-05
    days on market $193,000 Active 150 DOM
13. 2026-06-03
    days on market $193,000 Active 149 DOM
14. 2026-06-02
    days on market $193,000 Active 148 DOM
15. 2026-06-01
    days on market $193,000 Active 147 DOM
16. 2026-05-31
    days on market $193,000 Active 146 DOM
17. 2026-05-30
    days on market $193,000 Active 145 DOM
18. 2026-03-12
    price $193,000 636-char remark

    Show marketing remark (636 chars)

    Darling Cabin nestled in the coveted mountain top community. This beautifully renovated retreat features abundant natural light through lovely windows, skylights, a cozy den, and a well- appointed pantry with amply storage throughout. Enjoy indoor and outdoor living with a screened- in back porch, side deck with built-in benches, a detached utility room, and an additional storage shed perfect for entertaining or relaxing in nature. This charming dollhouse- style cabin offers both comfort and character. Come experience the charm and become part of the fun- loving Mountain top community! Owner has a new Mexico real estate license.

19. 2026-01-05
    listed $195,000 Active 636-char remark

    Show marketing remark (636 chars)

    Darling Cabin nestled in the coveted mountain top community. This beautifully renovated retreat features abundant natural light through lovely windows, skylights, a cozy den, and a well- appointed pantry with amply storage throughout. Enjoy indoor and outdoor living with a screened- in back porch, side deck with built-in benches, a detached utility room, and an additional storage shed perfect for entertaining or relaxing in nature. This charming dollhouse- style cabin offers both comfort and character. Come experience the charm and become part of the fun- loving Mountain top community! Owner has a new Mexico real estate license.

20. 2024-10-15
    soldstatus

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NM · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $614 · $51/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,544 · $129/mo
• Expected delta: +$930/yr (+$77/mo · 151.4%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 7/10 Severe
• 🌡 Heat 1/10 Low 5 d/yr ≥79°F today · 14 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $18,628
• − Mortgage interest: −$10,811
• − Property taxes: −$614
• − Insurance: −$965
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,490
• − Management: −$1,490
• − Depreciation: −$5,615
• Taxable loss: −$2,357
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$566
• After-tax cash flow: $1,557/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Cloudcroft Municipal Schools
• NCES district ID: 3500540
• Math proficiency: 28% —
• Reading proficiency: 48% —
• Median HH income: $45,499
• Composite: 34.88/100
• National rank: #9996
• State rank: #12 of 95 in NM

Livability — Cloudcroft

• Score: 60/100
• State rank: #107
• US rank: #18938

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment F Housing C Health & safety C- User ratings B

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Cloudcroft, NM
• Population (ZIP): 2,633

Population outlook (Otero County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 62,967 people
• By 2030: 62,164 · -1.3%
• By 2040: 60,253 · -4.3%
• By 2050: 58,575 · -7.0%
• By 2075: 55,411 · -12.0%
• By 2100: 48,551 · -22.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (86%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 86% Hispanic / Latino 12% Two or more races 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 9%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 21% Iranian 18% Scottish 5%
• Foreign-born: 1% · Canada
• Languages at home: 99% English-only · Spanish 1% German/W. Germanic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Otero

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+27.0) · D 35.4% · R 62.4% · Other 2.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: -7.7pp toward R · 2008: -19.3pp · 2024: -27.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+27.0 2020: R+25.6 2016: R+29.1 2012: R+28.0 2008: R+19.3

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -70.09%
• Current HPI: 209.5308
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: —
• F500 in state: 0

Price history

-1.0% since first listed

3 events — show timeline

• 2026-03-12 Price Changed $193,000 OCAOR
• 2026-01-05 Listed $195,000 OCAOR
• 2024-10-15 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records

Property tax history

+16.3%/yr

Latest (2025): $614 · +348.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.