627 N 5 St · Paragould, AR 72450

$24,900

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 988 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 7 Days on market

7,840 sqft lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Livability +3.2/5.0
• Schools +2.9/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Property sold "as is".

Key facts

• 7,840 sq ft lot
• Garage
• Listed 7 days

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $25k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $523 ($6k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($869 rent vs $25k).
• Cap rate 31.5% vs local median 4.5% in Paragould — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 65/100 on livability (#159 in AR) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: schools D+, crime F, amenities F.
• Paragould School District (town): math 35% / reading 34% proficiency, ranked #124 of 238 in AR (top 52%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 187 active listings in the ZIP; 13 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 44d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 100% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; 265 units permitted in Greene County in 2024 (135 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $172 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $747 of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Greene County population projected at +20% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $7k cash investment doubles in ~2 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• Only 7 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• Current owner paid $19k; 31% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→20/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $24,900

Questions for the listing agent

1. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
2. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
3. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 3.49% ✓
• Cap rate: 31.52%
• Cash-on-cash: 90.08%
• DSCR: 5.01
• GRM: 2.4

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $89,908
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
625 N 5th St	0.01mi	2/1.0	896 (-9%)	7mo	$90,000	$100	78
510 N 9th St	0.34mi	3/1.0 (+1)	1,000 (+1%)	6mo	$129,400	$129	72
109 E Plum	0.32mi	3/1.5 (+1)	1,000 (+1%)	6mo	$115,000	$115	71
507 W Morgan St St	0.13mi	3/1.0 (+1)	1,120 (+13%)	0mo	$14,500	$13	66
614 N 8th St	0.29mi	3/1.0 (+1)	1,080 (+9%)	3mo	$120,000	$111	63
738 N 2nd St	0.27mi	3/1.0 (+1)	1,093 (+11%)	6mo	$55,000	$50	60
605 N 7 1/2 St	0.21mi	3/1.0 (+1)	1,100 (+11%)	9mo	$100,500	$91	59
505 N Pruett St N	0.32mi	3/1.0 (+1)	1,076 (+9%)	9mo	$85,000	$79	58
1014 Rector Rd	0.73mi	2/1.0	1,054 (+7%)	0mo	$27,900	$26	55
412 E Poplar St	0.61mi	2/1.0	860 (-13%)	1mo	$46,500	$54	49
307 E Emerson St	0.60mi	3/1.0 (+1)	1,070 (+8%)	9mo	$155,000	$145	46
831 Rector Rd	0.64mi	3/1.0 (+1)	864 (-13%)	10mo	$35,000	$41	36

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 90.8%
• Equity multiple: 5.20×
• Total profit: $29,308
• Equity at exit: $3,713

10-year hold

• IRR: 93.7%
• Equity multiple: 10.82×
• Total profit: $68,475
• Equity at exit: $2,153

Cash invested: $6,972 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 92 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Arkansas: 92 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+14
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Only US state where non-payment is criminal. Strongly landlord-favorable; very few tenant protections.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 72450

• Home prices YoY: -8.9%
• Active inventory: 187
• Price-to-rent: 2.4×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $869 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$131
• Tax from tax record: −$22 /mo · $262/yr
• Insurance: −$10
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$182
• Net cashflow: $523

Break-even live

Break-even rent $206

Max offer price $24,900

Occupancy floor 35%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $6,225
• Closing costs: $747
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 13 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
405 N 7th St Unit 415 Paragould, AR	2.0	1.0	800	$940	$1.18	43d	1	0.24mi
1205 W Hunt St Unit 1 Paragould, AR	2.0	1.0	800	$825	$1.03	43d	1	0.60mi
528 E Lake St Paragould, AR	3.0	1.0	1088	$695	$0.64	43d	1	0.72mi
504 S 3rd Ave Unit 2 Paragould, AR	1.0	1.0	532	$750	$1.41	43d	1	0.78mi
700 S 4th St Unit 1 Paragould, AR	2.0	1.0	942	$725	$0.77	43d	1	0.80mi
800 S 3rd Ave Paragould, AR	2.0	1.0	875	$900	$1.03	43d	1	0.95mi
506 W Mueller Apt 3 Paragould, AR	1.0	1.0	719	$695	$0.97	43d	1	1.01mi
1204 S 8th St Unit 2 Paragould, AR	2.0	1.0	979	$950	$0.97	43d	1	1.26mi
804 Ada St Unit 3 Paragould, AR	2.0	1.0	1059	$950	$0.90	43d	1	1.29mi
812 Ada St Unit 3 Paragould, AR	2.0	1.0	975	$950	$0.97	43d	1	1.30mi
603 Wirt St Apt 1 Paragould, AR	2.0	1.0	840	$725	$0.86	43d	1	1.37mi
605 Wirt St Apt 8 Paragould, AR	2.0	1.0	840	$725	$0.86	43d	1	1.37mi
204 N 16th Ave Apt 1 Paragould, AR	1.0	1.0	900	$725	$0.81	43d	1	1.42mi

Listing history 3 events

1. 2021-11-23
   status Under Contract
2. 2021-11-16
   listed $24,900 New Listing
3. 1986-03-12
   soldstatus $19,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast AR · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $262 · $22/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $262 · $22/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 2/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 6/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥109°F today · 20 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 3/10 Moderate 7% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $10,423
• − Mortgage interest: −$1,395
• − Property taxes: −$262
• − Insurance: −$124
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$834
• − Management: −$834
• − Depreciation: −$724
• Taxable income: $6,250
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,500
• After-tax cash flow: $4,781/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Paragould School District
• NCES district ID: 0500017
• Math proficiency: 35% ▼ -15.00%
• Reading proficiency: 34% ▼ -12.00%
• Median HH income: $36,644
• Composite: 28.67/100
• National rank: #6696
• State rank: #124 of 238 in AR

Livability — Paragould

• Score: 65/100
• State rank: #159
• US rank: #13582

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment D- Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings B-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Paragould, AR
• County: Greene County · 40,807 people
• City population: 40,807
• Metro: Paragould, AR
• Population (ZIP): 40,807
• Household income: $57,725
• Rent vs Own: 35.9% rent · 64.1% own
• Severe rent burden: 1297.0

Population outlook (Greene County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 48,533 people
• By 2030: 50,640 · +4.3%
• By 2040: 54,795 · +12.9%
• By 2050: 58,486 · +20.5%
• By 2075: 66,056 · +36.1%
• By 2100: 67,684 · +39.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (89%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 89% Two or more races 6% Hispanic / Latino 4% Black 3%
• Common ancestry: Italian 2% Slovak 1% Romanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 1% · Canada
• Languages at home: 98% English-only · Spanish 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Greene

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+61.2) · D 18.6% · R 79.8% · Other 1.7%
• 2008→2024 swing: -31.5pp toward R · 2008: -29.7pp · 2024: -61.2pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+61.2 2020: R+59.7 2016: R+53.0 2012: R+36.9 2008: R+29.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -23.15%
• Current HPI: 236.1404
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Paragould, AR
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.80%
• F500 in state: 10

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in AR)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Retail	1	$681B
▸Food / Agriculture	1	$53B
▸Retail / Energy	1	$22B
▸Transportation / Logistics	1	$12B
▸Energy	1	$4B

Price history

+31.1% since first listed

3 events — show timeline

• 2021-11-23 Pending — CARMLS
• 2021-11-16 Listed $24,900 CARMLS
• 1986-03-12 Sold (Public Records) $19,000 Public Records

Property tax history

-4.9%/yr

Latest (2025): $262 · -25.8% YoY. Source: county tax records.