386 High Bridge Rd · Guilford, NY 13809

$99,000

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 2,098 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 109 Days on market

Built 1820 1.24 ac lot $47/sqft · 66% below area

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Why this score? — see what drove the C+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +19.8/30.0
• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• DSCR +6.3/10.0
• 1% rule +6.1/10.0
• Schools +3.5/10.0
• Livability +2.9/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks MLS

Oh The Things You Can Think!! On eleven acres of land so grand, Sits a four-bedroom home, oh so quirky and grand! One bath, many rooms, and space galore, With outbuildings too—barns and sheds to explore! It’s a fixer-upper, yes that is true, With creaky old floors and a project or two. But oh, the potential! The charm! The delight! A place for big dreams from morning till night. It’s selling as-is, just as it stands, A canvas of stories for creative hands. So bring your ideas, your tools, and your flair— And turn this old treasure into something rare! Because this isn’t just land, or a house, or a place— It’s a once-upon-a-time waiting for its next embrace

Key facts

• 1.24 acre lot
• Built 1820
• Listed 109 days

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $99k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $119 ($1k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $99k).
• Recommended offer: $90k (9.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 57/100 on livability (#1,083 in NY) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: health & safety C-, schools F, crime F.
• Gilbertsville-Mount Upton Central School District (rural): math 40% / reading 35% proficiency, ranked #666 of 755 in NY (top 88%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 13 active listings in the ZIP; 151 units permitted in Chenango County in 2024 (96 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $11k of equity ($684 loan paydown + $10k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Chenango County population projected at -26% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (10.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $28k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 4, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$38k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 109 days — a 9% lower offer ($90k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1820 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.

Recommended offer $90,090 (9.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 109 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 9% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1820 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.11% ✓
• Cap rate: 7.73%
• Cash-on-cash: 5.13%
• DSCR: 1.23
• GRM: 7.5

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $292,261
• List price: $99,000
• Delta: -66.13%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 4 within 2.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 28.0%
• Equity multiple: 3.22×
• Total profit: $61,527
• Equity at exit: $89,187

10-year hold

• IRR: 24.4%
• Equity multiple: 7.33×
• Total profit: $175,359
• Equity at exit: $192,335

Cash invested: $27,720 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State New York: 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

NYC rent stabilization (~1M units); 2019 HSTPA strengthened tenant rights; courts deeply backlogged.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 13809

• Home prices YoY: 5.8%
• Active inventory: 13
• Price-to-rent: 7.5×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,097 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$519
• Tax from tax record: −$188 /mo · $2,255/yr
• Insurance: −$41
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$230
• Net cashflow: $119

Break-even live

Break-even rent $947

Max offer price $99,000

Occupancy floor 84%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $24,750
• Closing costs: $2,970
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 16 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $99,000 Active 109 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $99,000 Active 108 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $99,000 Active 107 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $99,000 Active 106 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $99,000 Active 104 DOM
6. 2026-06-12
   days on market $99,000 Active 103 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $99,000 Active 100 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $99,000 Active 99 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $99,000 Active 98 DOM
10. 2026-06-05
    days on market $99,000 Active 96 DOM
11. 2026-06-04
    days on market $99,000 Active 94 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $99,000 Active 93 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $99,000 Active 92 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $99,000 Active 91 DOM
15. 2026-03-01
    listed $99,000 Active 713-char remark

    Show marketing remark (713 chars)

    Oh The Things You Can Think!! On eleven acres of land so grand, Sits a four-bedroom home, oh so quirky and grand! One bath, many rooms, and space galore, With outbuildings too—barns and sheds to explore! It’s a fixer-upper, yes that is true, With creaky old floors and a project or two. But oh, the potential! The charm! The delight! A place for big dreams from morning till night. It’s selling as-is, just as it stands, A canvas of stories for creative hands. So bring your ideas, your tools, and your flair— And turn this old treasure into something rare! Because this isn’t just land, or a house, or a place— It’s a once-upon-a-time waiting for its next embrace

16. 2008-10-06
    soldstatus $99,900

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NY · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $2,255 · $188/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,255 · $188/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 2/10 Low 7 d/yr ≥93°F today · 16 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low 100% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $13,168
• − Mortgage interest: −$5,546
• − Property taxes: −$2,255
• − Insurance: −$495
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,053
• − Management: −$1,053
• − Depreciation: −$2,880
• Taxable loss: −$114
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$27
• After-tax cash flow: $1,450/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Gilbertsville-Mount Upton Central School District
• NCES district ID: 3604757
• Math proficiency: 40% ▼ -5.00%
• Reading proficiency: 35% ▼ -10.00%
• Median HH income: $48,974
• Composite: 34.86/100
• National rank: #10004
• State rank: #666 of 755 in NY

Livability — Guilford

• Score: 57/100
• State rank: #1083
• US rank: #21865

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment D- Housing A+ Health & safety C- User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 1,688

Population outlook (Chenango County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 45,669 people
• By 2030: 43,484 · -4.8%
• By 2040: 38,774 · -15.1%
• By 2050: 34,000 · -25.6%
• By 2075: 24,637 · -46.1%
• By 2100: 16,452 · -64.0%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (96%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 96% Two or more races 4%
• Common ancestry: Italian 8% Lithuanian 4% Portuguese 4%
• Foreign-born: 1% · Canada

Political lean MEDSL · Chenango

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+27.2) · D 36.4% · R 63.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: -26.1pp toward R · 2008: -1.1pp · 2024: -27.2pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+27.2 2020: R+23.3 2016: R+28.1 2012: R+3.4 2008: R+1.1

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 15.07%
• Current HPI: 274.4556
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.60%
• F500 in state: 92

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	10	$950B
▸Consumer Goods	9	$162B
▸Insurance	4	$225B
▸Telecommunications	2	$144B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$112B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$69B

Price history

-0.9% since first listed

2 events — show timeline

• 2026-03-01 Listed $99,000 UNYREIS
• 2008-10-06 Sold (Public Records) $99,900 Public Records

Property tax history

+1.5%/yr

Latest (2025): $2,255 · -2.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.