301 S Patricia St · Lacy-Lakeview, TX 76705

$141,980

2 bd · 2.5 ba · 1,480 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 324 Days on market

Built 1973 8,520 sqft lot $96/sqft · 40% below area Est $235k · 40% under ↓ 41% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the C grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +19.6/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• 1% rule +6.4/10.0
• DSCR +6.2/10.0
• Rent growth +3.1/5.0
• Livability +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +1.7/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

This is a 2 bedroom 1 bathroom home.

Key facts

• 8,520 sq ft lot
• Built 1973
• Listed 323 days

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.5-bath single-family listed at $142k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $162 ($2k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $142k).
• Recommended offer: $125k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 7.7% vs local median 5.1% in Lacy-Lakeview — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads: area grade C — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• Connally ISD (suburban): math 16% / reading 25% proficiency, ranked #781 of 826 in TX (top 95%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 68% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+2.2%/yr); 299 active listings in the ZIP; 13 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 15d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 1,014 units permitted in McLennan County in 2024 (200 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 33% of the median local income ($58k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $982 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• McLennan County population projected at +17% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 324 days — a 12% lower offer ($125k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 5 sale attempts since 4y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $10k (6%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: property tax is 2.7% of price.
• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 56% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→25/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $124,942 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 324 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1973 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Property tax is high relative to price — has the assessment been appealed recently, and will the sale trigger a re-assessment?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.14% ✓
• Cap rate: 7.67%
• Cash-on-cash: 4.91%
• DSCR: 1.22
• GRM: 7.3

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $234,690
• List price: $141,980
• Delta: -39.50%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
409 Conway St	0.28mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,486 (+0%)	1mo	$309,900	$209	78
410 Conway St	0.28mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,486 (+0%)	2mo	$306,900	$207	78
411 Conway St	0.28mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,443 (-2%)	1mo	$306,900	$213	75
200 S Patricia St	0.11mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,563 (+6%)	8mo	$99,000	$63	72
200 Brenda St	0.41mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,496 (+1%)	1mo	$235,000	$157	71
408 Conway St	0.23mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,431 (-3%)	8mo	$299,900	$210	70
407 Conway St	0.23mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,431 (-3%)	9mo	$299,900	$210	69
309 S Rita St	0.26mi	3/1.0 (+1)	1,300 (-12%)	1mo	$182,500	$140	56
709 N Rita St	0.50mi	3/1.0 (+1)	1,386 (-6%)	0mo	$199,900	$144	55
103 Spring Lake Dr	0.48mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,605 (+8%)	4mo	$324,999	$202	53
117 S Bermuda St	0.59mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,330 (-10%)	1mo	$229,999	$173	48
112 S Lakeview Dr	0.61mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,268 (-14%)	9mo	$229,900	$181	34

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 2.2% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -9.6%
• Equity multiple: 0.65×
• Total profit: $-13,843
• Equity at exit: $21,170

10-year hold

• IRR: -1.3%
• Equity multiple: 0.91×
• Total profit: $-3,513
• Equity at exit: $12,276

Cash invested: $39,754 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 76705

• Home prices YoY: -29.6%
• Rents YoY: 2.2%
• Active inventory: 299
• Price-to-rent: 7.3×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,621 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$745
• Tax from tax record: −$314 /mo · $3,773/yr
• Insurance: −$59
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$340
• Net cashflow: $162

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,415

Max offer price $141,980

Occupancy floor 85%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $243	-5% $203	+0% $162	+5% $122	+10% $82
Rent	-10% $34	-5% $98	+0% $162	+5% $227	+10% $291
Rate	-1.0pp $234	-0.5pp $199	base $162	+0.5pp $126	+1.0pp $88

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $35,495
• Closing costs: $4,259
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 13 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
326 S Barbara St Waco, TX	3.0	2.0	1722	$2,300	$1.34	14d	1	0.22mi
320 S Rita St Waco, TX	3.0	1.0	1040	$1,600	$1.54	14d	1	0.25mi
209 S Rita St Waco, TX	3.0	2.0	1692	$1,575	$0.93	14d	1	0.26mi
129 N Lakeview Dr Waco, TX	3.0	2.0	1207	$3,750	$3.11	45d	1	0.39mi
39 Addi Ln Lacy Lakeview, TX	1.0	2.0	1050	$1,275	$1.21	14d	1	0.63mi
229 E Craven Ave Waco, TX	3.0	2.0	1052	$1,325	$1.26	45d	1	0.72mi
225 E Craven Ave Waco, TX	3.0	2.0	1052	$1,400	$1.33	45d	1	0.73mi
218 Avenue F Waco, TX	3.0	2.0	1332	$1,600	$1.20	45d	1	0.80mi
105 N Lacy Dr Waco, TX	3.0	1.0–2.0	700	$1,374	$1.96	14d	11	0.88mi
109 E Frost St Waco, TX	3.0	2.0	1338	$2,200	$1.64	14d	1	0.94mi
4509 Rocking K Dr Waco, TX	3.0	2.0	1298	$1,699	$1.31	14d	1	0.98mi
305 Shirley Dr Lacy Lakeview, TX	3.0	2.0	1100	$1,525	$1.39	14d	1	1.07mi
3500 Meyers Ln Waco, TX	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	684	$1,125	$1.64	14d	1	1.25mi

Listing history 34 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $141,980 Active 324 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $141,980 Active 323 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $141,980 Active 322 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $141,980 Active 321 DOM
5. 2026-06-14
   days on market $141,980 Active 319 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $141,980 Active 318 DOM
7. 2026-06-10
   days on market $141,980 Active 316 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $141,980 Active 315 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $141,980 Active 314 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $141,980 Active 313 DOM
11. 2026-06-05
    days on market $141,980 Active 310 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $141,980 Active 308 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $141,980 Active 307 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $141,980 Active 306 DOM
15. 2026-05-30
    days on market $141,980 Active 305 DOM
16. 2026-04-25
    price $141,980 36-char remark

    Show marketing remark (36 chars)

    This is a 2 bedroom 1 bathroom home.

17. 2025-10-19
    status Active 36-char remark

    Show marketing remark (36 chars)

    This is a 2 bedroom 1 bathroom home.

18. 2025-10-01
    status Pending 36-char remark

    Show marketing remark (36 chars)

    This is a 2 bedroom 1 bathroom home.

19. 2025-09-19
    price $155,720 36-char remark

    Show marketing remark (36 chars)

    This is a 2 bedroom 1 bathroom home.

20. 2025-08-14
    price $164,880 36-char remark

    Show marketing remark (36 chars)

    This is a 2 bedroom 1 bathroom home.

21. 2025-08-02
    historical
22. 2025-07-12
    listed $151,800 Active 36-char remark

    Show marketing remark (36 chars)

    This is a 2 bedroom 1 bathroom home.

23. 2025-06-25
    price $255,000
24. 2025-06-18
    price $262,000
25. 2025-06-06
    listed $275,000 Active
26. 2025-05-28
    historical
27. 2025-05-12
    price $249,900
28. 2025-04-30
    listed $255,000 Active
29. 2022-12-05
    soldstatus
30. 2022-12-01
    soldstatus
31. 2022-10-01
    listed $239,900
32. 2019-01-08
    soldstatus
33. 2018-10-17
    soldstatus
34. 2002-08-20
    soldstatus

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $3,773 · $314/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $3,773 · $314/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥110°F today · 25 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 56% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $19,453
• − Mortgage interest: −$7,953
• − Property taxes: −$3,773
• − Insurance: −$710
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,556
• − Management: −$1,556
• − Depreciation: −$4,130
• Taxable loss: −$226
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$54
• After-tax cash flow: $2,004/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Connally ISD
• NCES district ID: 4814970
• Math proficiency: 16% ▼ -10.00%
• Reading proficiency: 25% ▼ -5.00%
• Median HH income: $35,388
• Composite: 16.9/100
• National rank: #9141
• State rank: #781 of 826 in TX

Livability — Lacy-Lakeview

No livability data for this city. (Only ~50 U.S. cities are tracked.)

Census & demographics

• Census place: Lacy-Lakeview, TX
• County: McLennan County · 213,088 people
• City population: 31,616
• Metro: Waco, TX
• Population (ZIP): 31,616
• Household income: $58,236
• Rent vs Own: 37.2% rent · 62.8% own
• Severe rent burden: 668.0

Population outlook (McLennan County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 264,191 people
• By 2030: 273,578 · +3.6%
• By 2040: 291,506 · +10.3%
• By 2050: 308,044 · +16.6%
• By 2075: 349,648 · +32.3%
• By 2100: 364,779 · +38.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.68)
• Race & ethnicity: White 43% Hispanic / Latino 32% Two or more races 20% Black 18% Native American 1% Asian 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 31%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 2% Lithuanian 1% Serbian 1%
• Foreign-born: 13% · Canada, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 73% English-only · Spanish 24% Other Indo-European 1% German/W. Germanic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · McLennan

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+30.9) · D 34.0% · R 64.9% · Other 1.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -7.0pp toward R · 2008: -23.9pp · 2024: -30.9pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+30.9 2020: R+23.4 2016: R+27.1 2012: R+29.8 2008: R+23.9

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -91.45%
• Current HPI: 217.9429
• Rent YoY: ▲ 2.20%
• Metro: Waco, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

-40.8% since first listed

19 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-25 Price Changed $141,980 HARMLS
• 2025-10-19 Relisted — HARMLS
• 2025-10-01 Pending — HARMLS
• 2025-09-19 Price Changed $155,720 HARMLS
• 2025-08-14 Price Changed $164,880 HARMLS
• 2025-08-02 Listing Removed — NTREIS
• 2025-07-12 Listed $151,800 HARMLS
• 2025-06-25 Price Changed $255,000 NTREIS
• 2025-06-18 Price Changed $262,000 NTREIS
• 2025-06-06 Listed $275,000 NTREIS
• 2025-05-28 Listing Removed — NTREIS
• 2025-05-12 Price Changed $249,900 NTREIS
• 2025-04-30 Listed $255,000 NTREIS
• 2022-12-05 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2022-12-01 Sold (MLS) — NTREIS
• 2022-10-01 Listed $239,900 NTREIS
• 2019-01-08 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2018-10-17 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2002-08-20 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records

Property tax history

+4.2%/yr

Latest (2025): $3,773 · -24.1% YoY. Source: county tax records.