408 SW 1st · Lockney, TX 79241

$69,900

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,324 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 151 Days on market

Built 1955 9,000 sqft lot ↓ 18% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the B+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Appreciation +6.8/10.0
• Livability +3.6/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Schools +2.5/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks MLS

Investor opportunity in Lockney! This 2-bedroom, 1-bath home, that offers 1,324 sq ft of living space with solid potential. The property features a functional layout, spacious living areas, and an unfinished basement ideal for storage or future value-add possibilities. A 1-car garage provides added convenience. With classic curb appeal and a manageable lot, this home is well-suited for a rental, flip, or long-term hold. Centrally located this property presents a great opportunity for investors looking to add to their portfolio in a growing small-town market.

Key facts

• Manageable lot
• Classic curb appeal
• Unfinished basement

Tags

• FUNCTIONAL LAYOUT
• SPACIOUS LIVING AREAS
• UNFINISHED BASEMENT
• CLASSIC CURB APPEAL
• MANAGEABLE LOT
• CENTRALLY LOCATED

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $70k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $521 ($6k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $70k).
• Recommended offer: $62k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 71/100 on livability (#297 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, crime A-; Watch: health & safety C-, schools F, amenities F.
• Lockney ISD (rural): math 26% / reading 31% proficiency, ranked #653 of 826 in TX (top 79%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 67% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: 7 active listings in the ZIP.

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $3k of equity ($483 loan paydown + $3k appreciation (3.6% local appreciation)).
• Floyd County population projected at -26% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (3.6% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $20k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 151 days — a 12% lower offer ($62k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1955 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→21/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $61,512 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 151 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1955 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.85% ✓
• Cap rate: 15.24%
• Cash-on-cash: 31.95%
• DSCR: 2.42
• GRM: 4.5

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

3.63% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 38.8%
• Equity multiple: 3.25×
• Total profit: $44,015
• Equity at exit: $33,958

10-year hold

• IRR: 38.2%
• Equity multiple: 6.49×
• Total profit: $107,362
• Equity at exit: $54,390

Cash invested: $19,572 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 79241

• Home prices YoY: 5.0%
• Active inventory: 7
• Price-to-rent: 4.5×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,291 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$367
• Tax from tax record: −$103 /mo · $1,233/yr
• Insurance: −$29
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$271
• Net cashflow: $521

Break-even live

Break-even rent $631

Max offer price $69,900

Occupancy floor 55%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $561	-5% $541	+0% $521	+5% $501	+10% $482
Rent	-10% $419	-5% $470	+0% $521	+5% $572	+10% $623
Rate	-1.0pp $556	-0.5pp $539	base $521	+0.5pp $503	+1.0pp $485

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $17,475
• Closing costs: $2,097
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 14 events

1. 2026-06-12
   days on market $69,900 Active 151 DOM
2. 2026-06-09
   days on market $69,900 Active 148 DOM
3. 2026-06-08
   days on market $69,900 Active 147 DOM
4. 2026-06-07
   days on market $69,900 Active 146 DOM
5. 2026-06-05
   days on market $69,900 Active 144 DOM
6. 2026-06-03
   days on market $69,900 Active 142 DOM
7. 2026-06-02
   days on market $69,900 Active 141 DOM
8. 2026-06-01
   days on market $69,900 Active 140 DOM
9. 2026-05-31
   days on market $69,900 Active 139 DOM
10. 2026-05-30
    days on market $69,900 Active 138 DOM
11. 2026-05-04
    price $69,900 564-char remark

    Show marketing remark (564 chars)

    Investor opportunity in Lockney! This 2-bedroom, 1-bath home, that offers 1,324 sq ft of living space with solid potential. The property features a functional layout, spacious living areas, and an unfinished basement ideal for storage or future value-add possibilities. A 1-car garage provides added convenience. With classic curb appeal and a manageable lot, this home is well-suited for a rental, flip, or long-term hold. Centrally located this property presents a great opportunity for investors looking to add to their portfolio in a growing small-town market.

12. 2026-01-21
    price $75,000 564-char remark

    Show marketing remark (564 chars)

    Investor opportunity in Lockney! This 2-bedroom, 1-bath home, that offers 1,324 sq ft of living space with solid potential. The property features a functional layout, spacious living areas, and an unfinished basement ideal for storage or future value-add possibilities. A 1-car garage provides added convenience. With classic curb appeal and a manageable lot, this home is well-suited for a rental, flip, or long-term hold. Centrally located this property presents a great opportunity for investors looking to add to their portfolio in a growing small-town market.

13. 2026-01-13
    listed $85,000 Active 564-char remark

    Show marketing remark (564 chars)

    Investor opportunity in Lockney! This 2-bedroom, 1-bath home, that offers 1,324 sq ft of living space with solid potential. The property features a functional layout, spacious living areas, and an unfinished basement ideal for storage or future value-add possibilities. A 1-car garage provides added convenience. With classic curb appeal and a manageable lot, this home is well-suited for a rental, flip, or long-term hold. Centrally located this property presents a great opportunity for investors looking to add to their portfolio in a growing small-town market.

14. 1993-08-01
    soldstatus

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,233 · $103/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,279 · $107/mo
• Expected delta: +$46/yr (+$4/mo · 3.7%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 5/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥99°F today · 21 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $15,487
• − Mortgage interest: −$3,915
• − Property taxes: −$1,233
• − Insurance: −$350
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,239
• − Management: −$1,239
• − Depreciation: −$2,033
• Taxable income: $5,477
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,315
• After-tax cash flow: $4,939/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Lockney ISD
• NCES district ID: 4827890
• Math proficiency: 26% ▼ -13.00%
• Reading proficiency: 31% ▲ 7.00%
• Median HH income: $46,103
• Composite: 24.57/100
• National rank: #7639
• State rank: #653 of 826 in TX

Livability — Lockney

• Score: 71/100
• State rank: #297
• US rank: #6776

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A- Employment B Housing A+ Health & safety C- User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Lockney, TX
• Population (ZIP): 2,088

Population outlook (Floyd County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 5,230 people
• By 2030: 4,928 · -5.8%
• By 2040: 4,374 · -16.4%
• By 2050: 3,860 · -26.2%
• By 2075: 2,737 · -47.7%
• By 2100: 1,304 · -75.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Majority Hispanic (59%)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 59% White 37% Two or more races 11%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 52%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 1% Serbian 1% Portuguese 1%
• Foreign-born: 13% · Canada
• Languages at home: 63% English-only · Spanish 37%

Political lean MEDSL · Floyd

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+65.0) · D 17.1% · R 82.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: -23.1pp toward R · 2008: -41.8pp · 2024: -65.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+65.0 2020: R+56.2 2016: R+53.0 2012: R+46.6 2008: R+41.8

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 3.63%
• Current HPI: 76.6336
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

-17.8% since first listed

4 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-04 Price Changed $69,900 PARMLS
• 2026-01-21 Price Changed $75,000 PARMLS
• 2026-01-13 Listed $85,000 PARMLS
• 1993-08-01 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records

Property tax history

+4.1%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,233 · +13.1% YoY. Source: county tax records.