215 Forrest Dr · Lawrenceburg, KY 40342

$175,000

3 bd · 1.5 ba · 1,424 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 6 Days on market

Built 1963 0.36 ac lot Est $268k · 35% under

---

Why this score? — see what drove the D+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• Cash flow +14.4/30.0
• DSCR +4.4/10.0
• 1% rule +3.2/10.0
• Schools +3.2/10.0
• Livability +3.2/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Welcome to a great opportunity to create the home you've been envisioning. This 3-bedroom, 1.5 bath fixer upper in the heart of town, offers convenience and potential in one package. The unfinished basement provides extra space for storage or future finishing. A new roof installed in 2024 provides a valuable head start on updates. Inside, the layout gives you a solid starting point to update, refresh, and make it your own. A wonderful option for buyers who enjoy personalizing a home to fit their style. Selling AS-IS. Call today for a private showing.

Key facts

• Unfinished basement
• New roof
• 0.36 acre lot

Tags

• UNFINISHED BASEMENT
• NEW ROOF

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Lot approximately 0.36 acres

Exterior

• Parking: Attached garage; Driveway; Garage door opener; Garage faces front
• Utilities: Electricity connected; Natural gas connected; Sewer connected; Public sewer; Water connected
• Home design: Single-story house
• Construction: Stone and wood siding exterior; Dimensional shingle roof; Block foundation; Built as a house
• Exterior features: Chain link fencing; Public water; Not on waterfront

Interior

• Kitchen: Eat-in kitchen
• Bedrooms: Primary on first floor
• Flooring: Carpet; Hardwood; Tile
• Bathrooms: 1 full bathroom; 1 half bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Baseboard heating (natural gas); Central air conditioning (electric)
• Interior features: Eat-in kitchen; Primary bedroom on the first floor; Ceiling fans; Storm windows; Blinds
• Laundry & utility: Washer hookup on lower level; Electric dryer hookup on lower level

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.5-bath single-family listed at $175k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $36 ($428/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $144k (17.9% below list).
• Recommended offer: $144k (17.9% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 6.5% vs local median 2.8% in Lawrenceburg — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 64/100 on livability (#288 in KY) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, employment D-.
• Anderson County (town): math 32% / reading 41% proficiency, ranked #46 of 165 in KY (top 28%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Saffell Street Elementary School (math 31% / reading 30%, grade F, #384 of 676 statewide, top 57%, 402 students, 55% FRL); Anderson County Middle School (math 28% / reading 45%, grade F, #90 of 217 statewide, top 41%, 818 students, 46% FRL); Anderson County High School (math 37% / reading 42%, grade F, #40 of 254 statewide, top 19%, 1,189 students, 40% FRL).
• Market conditions: 227 active listings in the ZIP; 2 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 72 units permitted in Anderson County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $5k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.

Negotiation context

• Only 6 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• Current owner paid $112k; list at $175k implies a 56% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Recommended offer $143,676 (17.9% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1963 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
4. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.82% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.54%
• Cash-on-cash: 0.87%
• DSCR: 1.04
• GRM: 10.2

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $267,712
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
133 Canterbury St	0.21mi	3/2.0	1,428 (+0%)	4mo	$275,000	$193	84
114 Whitney Ave	0.12mi	3/2.0	1,540 (+8%)	2mo	$245,000	$159	77
2012 Lucille Routt Ct	0.37mi	3/2.0	1,370 (-4%)	0mo	$265,000	$193	74
312 Forrest Dr	0.24mi	3/1.5	1,300 (-9%)	2mo	$235,000	$181	73
324 Highland Ave	0.52mi	3/1.5	1,404 (-1%)	2mo	$235,000	$167	71
1013 Silver Leaf Dr	0.58mi	3/2.0	1,396 (-2%)	1mo	$289,900	$208	67
2005 Leslee Way	0.61mi	3/2.0	1,450 (+2%)	1mo	$296,000	$204	66
205 Lynn Dr	0.36mi	3/2.0	1,600 (+12%)	1mo	$264,000	$165	60
121 Humston Dr	0.13mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,215 (-15%)	4mo	$212,500	$175	59
112 Ann Dr	0.46mi	3/1.0	1,244 (-13%)	3mo	$225,000	$181	52
504 Chaucer Dr	0.28mi	4/2.5 (+1)	1,637 (+15%)	2mo	$308,000	$188	52
2013 Leslee Way	0.63mi	3/2.0	1,265 (-11%)	4mo	$280,000	$221	47

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -14.9%
• Equity multiple: 0.47×
• Total profit: $-26,132
• Equity at exit: $26,093

10-year hold

• IRR: -6.4%
• Equity multiple: 0.59×
• Total profit: $-20,016
• Equity at exit: $15,131

Cash invested: $49,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 83 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Kentucky: 83 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+16
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

7-day pay-or-quit (URLTA cities); generally landlord-friendly.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 40342

• Home prices YoY: -14.5%
• Active inventory: 227
• Price-to-rent: 10.2×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,437 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$918
• Tax from tax record: −$109 /mo · $1,305/yr
• Insurance: −$73
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$302
• Net cashflow: $36

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,392

Max offer price $175,000

Occupancy floor 93%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $135	-5% $85	+0% $36	+5% $-14	+10% $-63
Rent	-10% $-78	-5% $-21	+0% $36	+5% $92	+10% $149
Rate	-1.0pp $124	-0.5pp $80	base $36	+0.5pp $-10	+1.0pp $-56

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $43,750
• Closing costs: $5,250
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 2 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
119 Carlton Dr Unit 3 Lawrenceburg, KY	3.0	2.0	1350	$1,650	$1.22	25d	1	0.84mi
132 Cardinal Dr Lawrenceburg, KY	2.0	1.0	900	$1,000	$1.11	25d	1	1.15mi

Listing history 7 events

1. 2026-06-03
   status $175,000 Pending 6 DOM
2. 2026-06-02
   days on market $175,000 Active 6 DOM
3. 2026-06-01
   days on market $175,000 Active 5 DOM
4. 2026-05-31
   days on market $175,000 Active 4 DOM
5. 2026-05-30
   days on market $175,000 Active 3 DOM
6. 2026-05-27
   listed $175,000 Active
7. 2019-01-14
   soldstatus $112,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast KY · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,305 · $109/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,505 · $125/mo
• Expected delta: +$200/yr (+$17/mo · 15.3%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 4/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥104°F today · 19 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low 2% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $17,241
• − Mortgage interest: −$9,803
• − Property taxes: −$1,305
• − Insurance: −$875
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,379
• − Management: −$1,379
• − Depreciation: −$5,091
• Taxable loss: −$2,591
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$622
• After-tax cash flow: $1,050/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Anderson County
• NCES district ID: 2100120
• Math proficiency: 32% ▼ -12.00%
• Reading proficiency: 41% ▼ -13.00%
• Median HH income: $52,090
• Composite: 31.76/100
• National rank: #5898
• State rank: #46 of 165 in KY

Livability — Lawrenceburg

• Score: 64/100
• State rank: #288
• US rank: #13866

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A+ Employment D- Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings D-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Lawrenceburg, KY
• Population (ZIP): 23,739

Population outlook (Anderson County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 23,016 people
• By 2030: 23,318 · +1.3%
• By 2040: 23,533 · +2.2%
• By 2050: 23,119 · +0.4%
• By 2075: 21,631 · -6.0%
• By 2100: 19,180 · -16.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (92%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 92% Two or more races 3% Black 3% Hispanic / Latino 2%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 3% Slovak 2% Serbian 2%
• Foreign-born: 1% · Canada, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 98% English-only · Spanish 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Anderson

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+49.1) · D 24.6% · R 73.7% · Other 1.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: -16.6pp toward R · 2008: -32.4pp · 2024: -49.1pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+49.1 2020: R+47.6 2016: R+49.1 2012: R+34.0 2008: R+32.4

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -45.14%
• Current HPI: 265.9883
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.81%
• F500 in state: 4

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in KY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	1	$118B
▸Food / Beverage	1	$7B

Price history

+56.2% since first listed

2 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-27 Listed $175,000 ImagineMLS
• 2019-01-14 Sold (Public Records) $112,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+3.3%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,305 · +0.3% YoY. Source: county tax records.