21 Bristow Creek Trl · Egypt, AL 35952

$199,900

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,568 sqft · Manufactured · 82 Days on market

Built 2016 0.80 ac lot $127/sqft · 7% above area Est $187k · 7% over

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +10.2/30.0
• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +4.5/15.0
• Schools +3.1/10.0
• 1% rule +3.0/10.0
• DSCR +2.9/10.0
• Livability +2.8/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks MLS

21 Bristow Creek Trail is a 4 bedroom 2 bath home in Altoona, AL. This home features quaint living areas. The outdoor space country scenery. Enjoy the peaceful surroundings.

Key facts

• 0.8 acre lot
• Built 2016
• Listed 82 days

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $200k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-113 ($-1k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $184k (8.2% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $161k (19.7% below list).
• Recommended offer: $161k (19.7% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 55/100 on livability (#439 in AL) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: crime C-, employment D, amenities F.
• Etowah County (suburban): math 21% / reading 52% proficiency, ranked #36 of 129 in AL (top 28%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: West End Elementary School (math 27% / reading 57%, grade F, #213 of 627 statewide, top 37%, 390 students, 78% FRL); West End High School (math 2% / reading 27%, grade F, #216 of 305 statewide, top 72%, 370 students, 75% FRL) — zoned schools average 76% FRL vs 41% district-wide (36 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: 38 active listings in the ZIP; 119 units permitted in Etowah County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $21k of equity ($1k loan paydown + $20k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Etowah County population projected at -12% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$34k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 82 days — a 6% lower offer ($188k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→21/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $160,538 (19.7% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 82 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 20% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.80% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.61%
• Cash-on-cash: -2.43%
• DSCR: 0.89
• GRM: 10.4

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $187,407
• List price: $199,900
• Delta: 6.67%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 4 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 1 sale within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
10 Bristow Creek Trl	0.04mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,600 (+2%)	6mo	$155,000	$97	85

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 22.6%
• Equity multiple: 2.82×
• Total profit: $101,684
• Equity at exit: $180,086

10-year hold

• IRR: 20.2%
• Equity multiple: 6.45×
• Total profit: $305,162
• Equity at exit: $388,362

Cash invested: $55,972 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Alabama: 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+15
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Right-to-evict in 7 days for non-payment; no rent control; preempted statewide; courts move quickly.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 35952

• Home prices YoY: 6.0%
• Active inventory: 38
• Price-to-rent: 10.4×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,605 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,048
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$250 /mo · $2,998/yr
• Insurance: −$83
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$337
• Net cashflow: $-113

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,749

Max offer price $183,518

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $25	-5% $-44	+0% $-113	+5% $-182	+10% $-251
Rent	-10% $-240	-5% $-177	+0% $-113	+5% $-50	+10% $14
Rate	-1.0pp $-13	-0.5pp $-62	base $-113	+0.5pp $-165	+1.0pp $-218

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $49,975
• Closing costs: $5,997
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 19 events

1. 2026-06-22
   days on market $199,900 Active 82 DOM
2. 2026-06-19
   days on market $199,900 Active 80 DOM
3. 2026-06-18
   days on market $199,900 Active 79 DOM
4. 2026-06-17
   days on market $199,900 Active 78 DOM
5. 2026-06-16
   days on market $199,900 Active 77 DOM
6. 2026-06-15
   days on market $199,900 Active 76 DOM
7. 2026-06-14
   days on market $199,900 Active 74 DOM
8. 2026-06-13
   days on market $199,900 Active 73 DOM
9. 2026-06-10
   days on market $199,900 Active 71 DOM
10. 2026-06-09
    days on market $199,900 Active 70 DOM
11. 2026-06-08
    days on market $199,900 Active 69 DOM
12. 2026-06-07
    days on market $199,900 Active 68 DOM
13. 2026-06-05
    days on market $199,900 Active 65 DOM
14. 2026-06-03
    days on market $199,900 Active 64 DOM
15. 2026-06-02
    days on market $199,900 Active 63 DOM
16. 2026-06-01
    days on market $199,900 Active 62 DOM
17. 2026-05-31
    days on market $199,900 Active 61 DOM
18. 2026-05-30
    days on market $199,900 Active 60 DOM
19. 2026-03-31
    listed $199,900 Active 173-char remark

    Show marketing remark (173 chars)

    21 Bristow Creek Trail is a 4 bedroom 2 bath home in Altoona, AL. This home features quaint living areas. The outdoor space country scenery. Enjoy the peaceful surroundings.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 6/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 5/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥104°F today · 21 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 4/10 Moderate 22% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $19,265
• − Mortgage interest: −$11,198
• − Property taxes: −$2,998
• − Insurance: −$1,000
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,541
• − Management: −$1,541
• − Depreciation: −$5,815
• Taxable loss: −$4,829
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,159
• After-tax cash flow: $-200/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Etowah County
• NCES district ID: 0101380
• Math proficiency: 21% ▼ -28.00%
• Reading proficiency: 52% ▼ -1.00%
• Median HH income: $46,403
• Composite: 31.12/100
• National rank: #6062
• State rank: #36 of 129 in AL

Livability — Egypt

• Score: 55/100
• State rank: #439
• US rank: #23395

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime C- Employment D Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 8,901

Population outlook (Etowah County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 100,500 people
• By 2030: 98,488 · -2.0%
• By 2040: 93,731 · -6.7%
• By 2050: 88,681 · -11.8%
• By 2075: 76,746 · -23.6%
• By 2100: 65,373 · -35.0%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (87%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 87% Hispanic / Latino 12% Two or more races 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 11%
• Common ancestry: Iranian 3% Slovak 1% Lithuanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 7% · Canada
• Languages at home: 88% English-only · Spanish 11%

Political lean MEDSL · Etowah

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+55.7) · D 21.8% · R 77.5%
• 2008→2024 swing: -17.5pp toward R · 2008: -38.2pp · 2024: -55.7pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+55.7 2020: R+50.2 2016: R+50.1 2012: R+38.4 2008: R+38.2

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 14.05%
• Current HPI: 249.8629
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.94%
• F500 in state: 4

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in AL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	1	$8B
▸Healthcare	1	$5B

Price history

1 event — show timeline

• 2026-03-31 Listed $199,900 VMLS