633 Forrest St · New Castle, PA 16101

$52,999

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,056 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 107 Days on market

Built 1932 3,179 sqft lot $50/sqft · 15% above area Est $46k · 15% over

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Why this score? — see what drove the C+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• Rent growth +5.0/5.0
• Livability +4.1/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +1.1/10.0
• ARV discount +0.9/15.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Investment opportunity, currently rented.

Key facts

• 3,179 sq ft lot
• Built 1932
• Listed 106 days

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $53k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $655 ($8k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $53k).
• Recommended offer: $48k (9.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 21.1% vs local median 8.7% in New Castle — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 82/100 on livability (#137 in PA, #1,120 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: crime A+, commute A+, cost of living A+; Watch: amenities F, employment F.
• New Castle Area SD (town): math 9% / reading 19% proficiency, ranked #519 of 539 in PA (top 96%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 66% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+20.1%/yr); 118 active listings in the ZIP; 7 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 45d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 100% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; 51 units permitted in Lawrence County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $366 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $2k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Lawrence County population projected at -25% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 8.0% rent growth), your $15k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 107 days — a 9% lower offer ($48k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1932 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.

Recommended offer $48,229 (9.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 107 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 9% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1932 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 2.39% ✓
• Cap rate: 21.12%
• Cash-on-cash: 52.94%
• DSCR: 3.36
• GRM: 3.5

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $46,200
• List price: $52,999
• Delta: 14.72%
• Verdict: OVERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
509 E Lutton St	0.47mi	2/1.0	1,059 (+0%)	6mo	$40,000	$38	73
827 Morton St	0.36mi	3/1.0 (+1)	1,123 (+6%)	0mo	$40,000	$36	67
1019 Summit St	0.52mi	2/1.0	1,026 (-3%)	6mo	$65,000	$63	66
418 E Division St	0.47mi	3/1.5 (+1)	1,120 (+6%)	0mo	$18,000	$16	61
1023 Beckford St	0.62mi	3/1.0 (+1)	1,104 (+4%)	3mo	$25,000	$23	56
311 E Reynolds St	0.72mi	2/1.0	1,136 (+8%)	0mo	$10,000	$9	54
221 Friendship St	0.59mi	2/1.0	1,184 (+12%)	0mo	$23,000	$19	52
1218 Finch St	0.59mi	2/2.0	1,128 (+7%)	9mo	$128,000	$113	50
1112 Summit St	0.58mi	2/1.0	936 (-11%)	6mo	$75,000	$80	49
813 S Mercer St	0.72mi	2/1.5	1,152 (+9%)	6mo	$65,000	$56	44
1042 Maryland Ave	0.61mi	3/1.0 (+1)	1,204 (+14%)	2mo	$54,000	$45	42
706 E Long Ave	0.61mi	3/1.5 (+1)	935 (-12%)	10mo	$65,000	$70	37

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 8.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 56.5%
• Equity multiple: 3.68×
• Total profit: $39,825
• Equity at exit: $7,902

10-year hold

• IRR: 63.3%
• Equity multiple: 9.01×
• Total profit: $118,922
• Equity at exit: $4,582

Cash invested: $14,840 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 62 Landlord-Friendly
• State Pennsylvania: 62 Landlord-Friendly · EVEN
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

10-day notice; Philadelphia has eviction-court diversion + some protections; otherwise moderate.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 16101

• Home prices YoY: -26.3%
• Rents YoY: 20.1%
• Active inventory: 118
• Price-to-rent: 3.5×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,269 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$278
• Tax from tax record: −$48 /mo · $570/yr
• Insurance: −$22
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$266
• Net cashflow: $655

Break-even live

Break-even rent $440

Max offer price $52,999

Occupancy floor 43%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $685	-5% $670	+0% $655	+5% $640	+10% $625
Rent	-10% $555	-5% $605	+0% $655	+5% $705	+10% $755
Rate	-1.0pp $681	-0.5pp $668	base $655	+0.5pp $641	+1.0pp $627

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $13,250
• Closing costs: $1,590
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 7 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
932 Morton St New Castle, PA	3.0	1.0	1440	$1,375	$0.95	44d	1	0.36mi
1112 Williams St New Castle, PA	2.0	1.0	1026	$1,400	$1.36	44d	1	0.53mi
712 E Reynolds St New Castle, PA	3.0	1.0	1182	$975	$0.82	44d	1	0.58mi
1056 Adams St New Castle, PA	3.0	1.0	1116	$1,500	$1.34	44d	1	0.76mi
503 Galbreath St New Castle, PA	2.0	1.0	1228	$1,295	$1.05	44d	1	0.92mi
1605 S Jefferson St New Castle, PA	3.0	1.0	1500	$1,500	$1.00	44d	1	1.17mi
1708 Moravia St New Castle, PA	3.0	2.0	1500	$1,500	$1.00	44d	1	1.39mi

Listing history 17 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $52,999 Active 107 DOM
2. 2026-06-19
   days on market $52,999 Active 105 DOM
3. 2026-06-18
   days on market $52,999 Active 104 DOM
4. 2026-06-17
   days on market $52,999 Active 103 DOM
5. 2026-06-16
   days on market $52,999 Active 102 DOM
6. 2026-06-15
   days on market $52,999 Active 101 DOM
7. 2026-06-14
   days on market $52,999 Active 99 DOM
8. 2026-06-12
   days on market $52,999 Active 98 DOM
9. 2026-06-09
   days on market $52,999 Active 95 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    days on market $52,999 Active 94 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    days on market $52,999 Active 93 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    days on market $52,999 Active 89 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $52,999 Active 88 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $52,999 Active 87 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $52,999 Active 86 DOM
16. 2026-05-30
    days on market $52,999 Active 85 DOM
17. 2026-03-05
    listed $52,999 Active 41-char remark

    Show marketing remark (41 chars)

    Investment opportunity, currently rented.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast PA · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $570 · $48/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $704 · $59/mo
• Expected delta: +$133/yr (+$11/mo · 23.4%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 3/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥96°F today · 18 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $15,225
• − Mortgage interest: −$2,969
• − Property taxes: −$570
• − Insurance: −$265
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,218
• − Management: −$1,218
• − Depreciation: −$1,542
• Taxable income: $7,443
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,786
• After-tax cash flow: $6,071/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: New Castle Area SD
• NCES district ID: 4216620
• Math proficiency: 9% ▼ -13.00%
• Reading proficiency: 19% ▼ -23.00%
• Median HH income: $30,967
• Composite: 11.08/100
• National rank: #9736
• State rank: #519 of 539 in PA

Livability — New Castle

• Score: 82/100
• State rank: #137
• US rank: #1120

Category grades

Amenities F Commute A+ Cost of living A+ Crime A+ Employment F Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings B-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: New Castle, PA
• County: Lawrence County · 30,767 people
• City population: 30,767
• Metro: New Castle, PA
• Population (ZIP): 30,767
• Household income: $51,128
• Rent vs Own: 30.6% rent · 69.4% own
• Severe rent burden: 1047.0

Population outlook (Lawrence County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 81,781 people
• By 2030: 77,978 · -4.7%
• By 2040: 69,522 · -15.0%
• By 2050: 61,344 · -25.0%
• By 2075: 45,027 · -44.9%
• By 2100: 31,305 · -61.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (82%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 82% Two or more races 8% Black 7% Hispanic / Latino 3%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 7% Serbian 3% Iranian 1%
• Foreign-born: 2% · Canada
• Languages at home: 96% English-only · Spanish 2% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Lawrence

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+33.8) · D 32.8% · R 66.5%
• 2008→2024 swing: -28.7pp toward R · 2008: -5.1pp · 2024: -33.8pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+33.8 2020: R+29.6 2016: R+28.1 2012: R+9.0 2008: R+5.1

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -56.77%
• Current HPI: 159.3091
• Rent YoY: ▲ 20.05%
• Metro: New Castle, PA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.68%
• F500 in state: 34

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in PA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	2	$309B
▸Insurance	2	$27B
▸Telecommunications / Media	1	$124B
▸Industrial Distribution	1	$22B
▸Financial Services	1	$20B
▸Chemicals / Materials	1	$18B

Price history

1 event — show timeline

• 2026-03-05 Listed $52,999 West Penn MLS

Property tax history

+1.3%/yr

Latest (2025): $570 · -0.5% YoY. Source: county tax records.