406 Madison St · Red Bud, IL 62278

$125,000

1 bd · 1.0 ba · 768 sqft · SingleFamily · 52 Days on market

Built 1952 3,920 sqft lot $163/sqft · 14% below area Est $145k · 14% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +13.7/15.0
• Cash flow +12.0/30.0
• DSCR +3.6/10.0
• Livability +3.2/5.0
• 1% rule +3.1/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Schools +2.5/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Welcome to 406 Madison St in charming Red Bud! Perfect opportunity for affordable, low maintenance living in a great location that keeps you close to everything! Cozy 1 bedroom, 1 bath ranch is ideal for a first-time buyer, those looking to downsize, or investors seeking to to add to their rental portfolio! On the exterior is a metal roof, vinyl siding, a small manageable yard, storage shed plus a nice 12 x 15 covered deck for quiet mornings and coffee! Enjoy the convenience of being just minutes from local businesses and dining, making errands a breeze! Roof, furnace and water heater all replaced in 2019. Call today for a showing! Don't miss your chance to make this cute home your own in a

Key facts

• 3,920 sq ft lot
• Built 1952
• Listed 51 days

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: 768 above-grade finished area (source: Other); Lot size about 0.09 acre (public records)
• Financial info: Lease not considered

Exterior

• Parking: On-street parking
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer; Electric service by Ameren; Natural gas connected; Electricity connected; Water available; Sewer available
• Home design: Single-family residence; One story
• Construction: Vinyl siding; Metal roof
• Exterior features: Covered patio/porch; Deck; Level, rectangular lot; City street frontage

Interior

• Kitchen: Free-standing range; Refrigerator; Eat-in layout
• Bedrooms: One bedroom on the main level (11x11)
• Bathrooms: One full bathroom on the main level (8x6)
• Heating & cooling: Forced air heating (natural gas); Central air conditioning
• Interior features: Eat-in kitchen; Five total rooms
• Laundry & utility: Main-level laundry (11x10); Washer/Dryer included

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 1-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $125k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-29 ($-347/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $120k (4.1% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $102k (18.5% below list).
• Recommended offer: $102k (18.5% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 64/100 on livability (#727 in IL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, health & safety F.
• Red Bud CUSD 132 (town): math 20% / reading 35% proficiency, ranked #268 of 620 in IL (top 43%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Zoned schools: Red Bud Elem School (math 20% / reading 36%, grade F, #736 of 2,056 statewide, top 36%, 618 students, 0% FRL); Red Bud High School (math 22% / reading 27%, grade F, #256 of 693 statewide, top 44%, 410 students, 0% FRL) — zoned schools average 0% FRL vs 36% district-wide (36 pts lower); this property's tenant base skews higher-income than the district average.
• Market conditions: 25 active listings in the ZIP; 3 units permitted in Randolph County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $864 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Randolph County population projected at -14% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 52 days — a 3% lower offer ($121k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $62k; list at $125k implies a 103% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1952 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→20/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $101,831 (18.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 52 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 19% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Built in 1952 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.81% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.02%
• Cash-on-cash: -0.99%
• DSCR: 0.96
• GRM: 10.2

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $144,955
• List price: $125,000
• Delta: -13.77%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 10 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 1 sale within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
422 Washington St	0.08mi	2/1.0 (+1)	723 (-6%)	11mo	$149,900	$207	72

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -17.9%
• Equity multiple: 0.37×
• Total profit: $-22,099
• Equity at exit: $18,638

10-year hold

• IRR: -10.1%
• Equity multiple: 0.38×
• Total profit: $-21,626
• Equity at exit: $10,808

Cash invested: $35,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 43 Moderately Tenant-Leaning
• State Illinois: 43 Moderately Tenant-Leaning · D+7
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Chicago RTLO is among the strongest tenant ordinances in the Midwest; downstate is more landlord-friendly.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 62278

• Home prices YoY: -29.7%
• Active inventory: 25
• Price-to-rent: 10.2×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,018 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$656
• Tax from tax record: −$126 /mo · $1,509/yr
• Insurance: −$52
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$214
• Net cashflow: $-29

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,055

Max offer price $119,896

Occupancy floor 98%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $42	-5% $6	+0% $-29	+5% $-64	+10% $-100
Rent	-10% $-109	-5% $-69	+0% $-29	+5% $11	+10% $52
Rate	-1.0pp $34	-0.5pp $3	base $-29	+0.5pp $-61	+1.0pp $-94

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $31,250
• Closing costs: $3,750
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 23 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $125,000 Active 52 DOM
2. 2026-06-21
   days on market $125,000 Active 51 DOM
3. 2026-06-18
   days on market $125,000 Active 49 DOM
4. 2026-06-17
   days on market $125,000 Active 48 DOM
5. 2026-06-16
   days on market $125,000 Active 47 DOM
6. 2026-06-15
   days on market $125,000 Active 46 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $125,000 Active 44 DOM
8. 2026-06-12
   days on market $125,000 Active 43 DOM
9. 2026-06-09
   days on market $125,000 Active 40 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    days on market $125,000 Active 39 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    days on market $125,000 Active 38 DOM
12. 2026-06-05
    days on market $125,000 Active 36 DOM
13. 2026-06-04
    days on market $125,000 Active 34 DOM
14. 2026-06-02
    days on market $125,000 Active 33 DOM
15. 2026-06-01
    price $125,000 Active 32 DOM
16. 2026-06-01
    days on market $129,000 Active 32 DOM
17. 2026-05-31
    days on market $129,000 Active 31 DOM
18. 2026-05-31
    days on market $129,000 Active 30 DOM
19. 2026-05-17
    status Active 748-char remark
20. 2026-05-03
    historical Active Under Contract 748-char remark
21. 2026-05-01
    listed $129,000 Active 748-char remark
22. 2026-04-30
    historical $129,000 748-char remark
23. 2008-03-05
    soldstatus $61,500

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast IL · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $1,509 · $126/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,173 · $181/mo
• Expected delta: +$664/yr (+$55/mo · 44.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 5/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥107°F today · 20 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low 100% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $12,220
• − Mortgage interest: −$7,002
• − Property taxes: −$1,509
• − Insurance: −$625
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$978
• − Management: −$978
• − Depreciation: −$3,636
• Taxable loss: −$2,508
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$602
• After-tax cash flow: $255/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Red Bud CUSD 132
• NCES district ID: 1733300
• Math proficiency: 20% ▼ -8.00%
• Reading proficiency: 35% ▼ -10.00%
• Median HH income: $54,391
• Composite: 24.5/100
• National rank: #7652
• State rank: #268 of 620 in IL

Livability — Red Bud

• Score: 64/100
• State rank: #727
• US rank: #14772

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A+ Employment C Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Red Bud, IL
• City population: 6,425
• Population (ZIP): 6,425

Population outlook (Randolph County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 31,417 people
• By 2030: 30,519 · -2.9%
• By 2040: 28,841 · -8.2%
• By 2050: 27,150 · -13.6%
• By 2075: 22,569 · -28.2%
• By 2100: 16,584 · -47.2%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (94%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 94% Two or more races 3% Asian 2% Hispanic / Latino 1%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 6% Romanian 3% Serbian 1%
• Foreign-born: 3%
• Languages at home: 97% English-only · Other Asian/Pacific 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Randolph

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+50.0) · D 24.1% · R 74.1% · Other 1.7%
• 2008→2024 swing: -49.0pp toward R · 2008: -0.9pp · 2024: -50.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+50.0 2020: R+50.2 2016: R+46.8 2012: R+17.6 2008: R+0.9

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -71.77%
• Current HPI: 170.2242
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.59%
• F500 in state: 60

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in IL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Insurance	4	$201B
▸Consumer Goods	4	$87B
▸Industrial Machinery	3	$64B
▸Healthcare	2	$55B
▸Retail / Pharmacy	1	$148B
▸Agriculture / Food	1	$86B

Price history

+103.3% since first listed

6 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-01 Price Changed $125,000 MARIS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-05-17 Relisted — MARIS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-05-03 Contingent — MARIS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-05-01 Listed $129,000 MARIS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-04-30 Coming Soon $129,000 MARIS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2008-03-05 Sold (Public Records) $61,500 Public Records

Property tax history

+1.4%/yr

Latest (2024): $1,509 · +4.3% YoY. Source: county tax records.