4 Marc Rd · West Long Branch, NJ 07764

$1,600,000

5 bd · 2.5 ba · 3,302 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 41 Days on market

Built 1973 Est $1549k · at est.

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +15.0/30.0
• ARV discount +6.0/15.0
• 1% rule +5.0/10.0
• DSCR +5.0/10.0
• Schools +4.3/10.0
• Livability +3.5/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

This charming single-family home located at 4 Marc Rd in West Long Branch, NJ was built in 1973. With a spacious finished area of 2,706 sq. ft. , this home offers 5 bedrooms, 2 full bathrooms and 1 half bathroom. Situated on a large lot size of 27,056 sq. ft. , there is plenty of room for outdoor activities and entertaining. Don't miss the opportunity to make this well-maintained property your new home!. Location advantages (close to beach, Monmouth University, Monmouth Park, Netflix, shopping and restaurants).

Key facts

• 2 garage spots
• Pool
• Listed 41 days

Property features AI

Exterior

• Parking: Attached 2-car garage
• Utilities: Public sewer
• Home design: Fee simple ownership
• Construction: Full unfinished basement
• Exterior features: Sloping shingle roof

Interior

• Kitchen: Stove; Refrigerator; Freezer; Dishwasher; Garbage disposal
• Bedrooms: 5 bedrooms
• Flooring: Porcelain floors; Wood floors
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms; 1 half bathroom; Total 3 bathrooms (2.5)
• Heating & cooling: 2-zone heating; 2-zone air conditioning
• Interior features: Hot tub; Fireplace (1)
• Laundry & utility: Washer; Dryer; Garage door opener

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 5-bed/2.5-bath single-family listed at $1.60M.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $50k ($602k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($77k rent vs $1.60M).
• Recommended offer: $1.55M (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 43.9% vs local median 2.0% in West Long Branch — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 70/100 on livability (#268 in NJ) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, employment A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, cost of living F.
• West Long Branch School District (suburban): math 37% / reading 55% proficiency, ranked #154 of 472 in NJ (top 33%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; only 8% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Market conditions: 47 active listings in the ZIP; 5 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 22d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 2,840 units permitted in Monmouth County in 2024 (484 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $11k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $48k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Monmouth County population projected at -11% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $448k cash investment doubles in ~1 year — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 41 days — a 3% lower offer ($1.55M) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 80% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→16/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $1,552,000 (3.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 41 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1973 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 4.82% ✓
• Cap rate: 43.94%
• Cash-on-cash: 134.46%
• DSCR: 6.98
• GRM: 1.7

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $1,548,638
• Comps found: 10

Show comp detail 10 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
499 Wall St	0.20mi	5/3.0	3,269 (-1%)	7mo	$1,725,000	$528	81
5 Woods Rd	0.14mi	5/2.5	3,178 (-4%)	9mo	$1,410,000	$444	80
36 Muncy Dr	0.25mi	5/3.5	3,542 (+7%)	3mo	$1,610,000	$455	69
469 Wall St	0.20mi	6/3.0 (+1)	3,520 (+7%)	7mo	$1,836,000	$522	67
22 Muncy Dr	0.41mi	5/3.5	3,105 (-6%)	7mo	$1,700,000	$548	61
34 S Arlene Dr	0.09mi	6/3.5 (+1)	3,473 (+5%)	21mo	$1,462,500	$421	61
32 Musket Ln	0.39mi	5/4.5	3,127 (-5%)	9mo	$2,300,000	$736	57
53 Arlene Dr	0.53mi	4/3.5 (-1)	3,038 (-8%)	0mo	$1,425,000	$469	52
6 Sarah Ln	0.43mi	6/3.5 (+1)	3,100 (-6%)	19mo	$999,000	$322	45
9 Abis Pl	0.35mi	4/4.0 (-1)	2,897 (-12%)	16mo	$1,100,000	$380	39

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: —
• Equity multiple: 7.56×
• Total profit: $2,938,955
• Equity at exit: $238,565

10-year hold

• IRR: —
• Equity multiple: 15.91×
• Total profit: $6,680,117
• Equity at exit: $138,339

Cash invested: $448,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 21 Tenant-Leaning
• State New Jersey: 21 Tenant-Leaning · D+6
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Anti-eviction Act requires just-cause statewide; rent control in 100+ municipalities; one of the most tenant-friendly states.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 07764

• Home prices YoY: -28.1%
• Active inventory: 47
• Price-to-rent: 1.7×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $77,149 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$8,391
• Tax from tax record: −$1,691 /mo · $20,293/yr
• Insurance: −$667
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$16,201
• Net cashflow: $50,200

Break-even live

Break-even rent $13,605

Max offer price $1,600,000

Occupancy floor 30%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $400,000
• Closing costs: $48,000
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 5 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
25 Muncy Dr West Long Branch, NJ	5.0	4.0	4347	$99,000	$22.77	22d	1	0.35mi
63 Jamestown Rd Eatontown, NJ	6.0	3.5	2755	$70,000	$25.41	22d	1	0.41mi
24 Valley Forge Rd Eatontown, NJ	6.0	4.5	3934	$4,500	$1.14	1d	1	0.46mi
58 Georgetown Rd Eatontown, NJ	5.0	4.0	3665	$57,000	$15.55	22d	1	0.54mi
24 Barbara Ln Oakhurst, NJ	4.0	2.5	2331	$2,500	$1.07	24d	1	1.34mi

Listing history 14 events

1. 2026-06-17
   status $1,600,000 Pending 41 DOM
2. 2026-06-16
   days on market $1,600,000 Active 41 DOM
3. 2026-06-15
   days on market $1,600,000 Active 40 DOM
4. 2026-06-13
   days on market $1,600,000 Active 38 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $1,600,000 Active 37 DOM
6. 2026-06-09
   days on market $1,600,000 Active 34 DOM
7. 2026-06-08
   days on market $1,600,000 Active 33 DOM
8. 2026-06-07
   days on market $1,600,000 Active 32 DOM
9. 2026-06-04
   days on market $1,600,000 Active 29 DOM
10. 2026-06-03
    days on market $1,600,000 Active 28 DOM
11. 2026-06-02
    days on market $1,600,000 Active 27 DOM
12. 2026-06-01
    days on market $1,600,000 Active 26 DOM
13. 2026-05-31
    days on market $1,600,000 Active 25 DOM
14. 2026-05-06
    listed $1,600,000 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NJ · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $20,293 · $1,691/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $30,066 · $2,506/mo
• Expected delta: +$9,774/yr (+$814/mo · 48.2%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥94°F today · 16 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 80% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 3 unhealthy d/yr today · 4 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $925,793
• − Mortgage interest: −$89,625
• − Property taxes: −$20,293
• − Insurance: −$8,000
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$74,063
• − Management: −$74,063
• − Depreciation: −$46,545
• Taxable income: $613,203
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$147,169
• After-tax cash flow: $455,228/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: West Long Branch School District
• NCES district ID: 3417490
• Math proficiency: 37% ▼ -26.00%
• Reading proficiency: 55% ▼ -9.00%
• Median HH income: $87,522
• Composite: 42.99/100
• National rank: #3108
• State rank: #154 of 472 in NJ

Livability — West Long Branch

• Score: 70/100
• State rank: #268
• US rank: #7916

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living F Crime A+ Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety C+ User ratings C+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: West Long Branch, NJ
• City population: 8,576
• Population (ZIP): 8,576

Population outlook (Monmouth County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 620,308 people
• By 2030: 612,309 · -1.3%
• By 2040: 587,297 · -5.3%
• By 2050: 551,342 · -11.1%
• By 2075: 472,934 · -23.8%
• By 2100: 381,534 · -38.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (80%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 80% Hispanic / Latino 7% Two or more races 6% Black 5% Asian 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Puerto Rican 3%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 5% Estonian 2% Portuguese 2%
• Foreign-born: 8% · Canada
• Languages at home: 89% English-only · Other Indo-European 6% Spanish 3% Russian/Polish/Slavic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Monmouth

• 2024 margin: R (+11.4) · D 43.4% · R 54.8% · Other 1.8%
• 2008→2024 swing: -7.7pp toward R · 2008: -3.7pp · 2024: -11.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+11.4 2020: R+2.8 2016: R+9.5 2012: R+5.5 2008: R+3.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -169.51%
• Current HPI: 432.648
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.05%
• F500 in state: 34

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NJ)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Consumer Goods	3	$31B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$153B
▸Technology	2	$21B
▸Insurance	2	$20B
▸Healthcare	2	$19B
▸Financial Services	1	$70B

Price history

1 event — show timeline

• 2026-05-06 Listed $1,600,000 MOMLS

Property tax history

+2.3%/yr

Latest (2025): $20,293 · +8.7% YoY. Source: county tax records.