190 Live Oak Dr · Manvel, TX 77578

$67,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,400 sqft · Manufactured public records · 233 Days on market

Built 2001 ↓ 7% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the B grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +3.9/10.0
• Livability +3.4/5.0
• Rent growth +3.2/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

For Sale by Daughter In true Hallmark-movie fashion, my mom has been whisked away by a charming, well-to-do landowner, leaving me, her perpetually single daughter, to sell her beloved home. This 3-bed, 2-bath manufactured home (25 years young) comes with all the essentials: appliances, a spacious shed, some furniture, a garden tub, and the lingering scent of maternal wisdom. It's in decent condition just don't expect an HGTV reveal upon entering. It also has a new deck in the back. Funny story, the old deck was accidentally demolished by a construction worker who got the address wrong. End result was a free new deck! The home sits in a cute, quiet, and absurdly safe community with great schools. Its a leased lot situation, meaning you'll be renting the land but owning the house. The HOA is. .. lets call it enthusiastically involved. If your grass dares to grow over an inch, they'll leave you a love note on your door. But hey, at least you'll never have to wonder if anyones paying attention and my mom says it builds character. If you're looking for a home thats cozy, affordable, and was home to a lady who manifested her own Hallmark movie plot, this is the one for you!

Key facts

• Spacious shed
• New deck
• Great schools

Tags

• NEW DECK
• SPACIOUS SHED
• GARDEN TUB
• QUIET COMMUNITY
• GREAT SCHOOLS

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $67k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $855 ($10k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $67k).
• Recommended offer: $59k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 29.2% vs local median 2.2% in Manvel — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 67/100 on livability (#544 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, employment A+, housing A+; Watch: schools C-, amenities F, commute F.
• Alvin ISD (suburban): math 39% / reading 48% proficiency, ranked #255 of 826 in TX (top 31%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+2.8%/yr); 1243 active listings in the ZIP; 2 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; high-income renter base; 3,960 units permitted in Brazoria County in 2024 (593 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $463 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $2k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Brazoria County population projected at +44% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 2.8% rent growth), your $19k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 233 days — a 12% lower offer ($59k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $427/mo.
• Climate carrying-cost: in FEMA flood zone AE (mandatory federal flood insurance); severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→23/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $58,960 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 233 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 3.29% ✓
• Cap rate: 29.24%
• Cash-on-cash: 81.96%
• DSCR: 4.65
• GRM: 2.5

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 2.77% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 52.7%
• Equity multiple: 3.31×
• Total profit: $43,365
• Equity at exit: $9,990

10-year hold

• IRR: 57.9%
• Equity multiple: 6.70×
• Total profit: $106,971
• Equity at exit: $5,793

Cash invested: $18,760 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 77578

• Rents YoY: 2.8%
• Active inventory: 1243
• Price-to-rent: 2.5×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,202 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$351
• Tax from tax record: −$79 /mo · $951/yr
• Insurance: −$28
• Flood insurance flood zone: −$427 /mo · $5,118/yr
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$462
• Net cashflow: $855

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,120

Max offer price $67,000

Occupancy floor 56%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $16,750
• Closing costs: $2,010
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 2 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
3800 County Road 94 Manvel, TX	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.5	1025	$1,799	$1.75	2d	40	1.40mi
3712 Glenhill Dr Pearland, TX	3.0	2.5	1814	$2,350	$1.30	43d	1	1.42mi

Listing history 6 events

1. 2026-06-03
   days on market $67,000 Active 233 DOM
2. 2026-06-02
   days on market $67,000 Active 232 DOM
3. 2026-06-01
   days on market $67,000 Active 231 DOM
4. 2026-05-31
   days on market $67,000 Active 230 DOM
5. 2025-10-21
   price $67,000 1189-char remark

   Show marketing remark (1189 chars)

   For Sale by Daughter In true Hallmark-movie fashion, my mom has been whisked away by a charming, well-to-do landowner, leaving me, her perpetually single daughter, to sell her beloved home. This 3-bed, 2-bath manufactured home (25 years young) comes with all the essentials: appliances, a spacious shed, some furniture, a garden tub, and the lingering scent of maternal wisdom. It's in decent condition just don't expect an HGTV reveal upon entering. It also has a new deck in the back. Funny story, the old deck was accidentally demolished by a construction worker who got the address wrong. End result was a free new deck! The home sits in a cute, quiet, and absurdly safe community with great schools. Its a leased lot situation, meaning you'll be renting the land but owning the house. The HOA is. .. lets call it enthusiastically involved. If your grass dares to grow over an inch, they'll leave you a love note on your door. But hey, at least you'll never have to wonder if anyones paying attention and my mom says it builds character. If you're looking for a home thats cozy, affordable, and was home to a lady who manifested her own Hallmark movie plot, this is the one for you!

6. 2025-10-13
   listed $72,000 Active 1189-char remark

   Show marketing remark (1189 chars)

   For Sale by Daughter In true Hallmark-movie fashion, my mom has been whisked away by a charming, well-to-do landowner, leaving me, her perpetually single daughter, to sell her beloved home. This 3-bed, 2-bath manufactured home (25 years young) comes with all the essentials: appliances, a spacious shed, some furniture, a garden tub, and the lingering scent of maternal wisdom. It's in decent condition just don't expect an HGTV reveal upon entering. It also has a new deck in the back. Funny story, the old deck was accidentally demolished by a construction worker who got the address wrong. End result was a free new deck! The home sits in a cute, quiet, and absurdly safe community with great schools. Its a leased lot situation, meaning you'll be renting the land but owning the house. The HOA is. .. lets call it enthusiastically involved. If your grass dares to grow over an inch, they'll leave you a love note on your door. But hey, at least you'll never have to wonder if anyones paying attention and my mom says it builds character. If you're looking for a home thats cozy, affordable, and was home to a lady who manifested her own Hallmark movie plot, this is the one for you!

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $951 · $79/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,226 · $102/mo
• Expected delta: +$275/yr (+$23/mo · 29.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 5/10 Major FEMA zone AE · 64% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 7/10 Severe
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥109°F today · 23 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $26,427
• − Mortgage interest: −$3,753
• − Property taxes: −$951
• − Insurance: −$5,454
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,114
• − Management: −$2,114
• − Depreciation: −$1,949
• Taxable income: $10,092
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$2,422
• After-tax cash flow: $7,835/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Alvin ISD
• NCES district ID: 4808090
• Math proficiency: 39% ▼ -11.00%
• Reading proficiency: 48% ▬ 0.00%
• Median HH income: $66,740
• Composite: 38.96/100
• National rank: #4080
• State rank: #255 of 826 in TX

Livability — Manvel

• Score: 67/100
• State rank: #544
• US rank: #10576

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A Crime A+ Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Brazoria County · 374,982 people
• City population: 30,210
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• Population (ZIP): 30,210
• Household income: $134,016
• Rent vs Own: 16.9% rent · 83.1% own
• Severe rent burden: 93.0

Population outlook (Brazoria County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 420,414 people
• By 2030: 457,585 · +8.8%
• By 2040: 532,232 · +26.6%
• By 2050: 605,399 · +44.0%
• By 2075: 779,358 · +85.4%
• By 2100: 883,759 · +110.2%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Highly diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.73)
• Race & ethnicity: White 36% Black 30% Hispanic / Latino 22% Two or more races 15% Asian 9%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 18%
• Common ancestry: Norwegian 2% Subsaharan African 2% Scotch-Irish 1%
• Foreign-born: 15% · Canada, China, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 78% English-only · Spanish 13% Tagalog/Filipino 2% Vietnamese 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Brazoria

• 2024 margin: R (+19.7) · D 39.5% · R 59.2% · Other 1.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: +9.9pp toward D · 2008: -29.6pp · 2024: -19.7pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+19.7 2020: R+18.2 2016: R+24.6 2012: R+34.2 2008: R+29.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -154.15%
• Current HPI: 218.4264
• Rent YoY: ▲ 2.77%
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

-6.9% since first listed

2 events — show timeline

• 2025-10-21 Price Changed $67,000 ForSaleByOwner.com
• 2025-10-13 Listed $72,000 ForSaleByOwner.com

Property tax history

-0.4%/yr

Latest (2025): $951 · +9.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.