TBD Wolverine · Deltaville, VA 23043

$295,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,280 sqft · SingleFamily · 102 Days on market

Built 2026 10,245 sqft lot $230/sqft · 15% below area Est $347k · 15% under $6/mo HOA

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Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +14.3/15.0
• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• Schools +4.5/10.0
• Livability +3.0/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Cash flow +2.2/30.0
• 1% rule +0.0/10.0
• DSCR +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Delta Shores, To be Constructed, 3 Bedroom 2 bath Ranch style house with granite countertops, stainless appliances, vaulted ceiling in living room kitchen area, in water access community near Deltaville

Key facts

• Vaulted ceiling
• Stainless appliances
• Granite countertops

Tags

• GRANITE COUNTERTOPS
• STAINLESS APPLIANCES
• VAULTED CEILING
• WATER ACCESS COMMUNITY

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $295k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-1k ($-13k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $141k (52.3% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $124k (58.0% below list).
• Recommended offer: $124k (58.0% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 2.0% vs local median 0.9% in Deltaville — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 60/100 on livability (#434 in VA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: health & safety B+; Watch: housing C-, schools D+, amenities F.
• Middlesex County Public School District (rural): math 45% / reading 59% proficiency, ranked #90 of 131 in VA (top 69%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: 38 active listings in the ZIP; 97 units permitted in Middlesex County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $32k of equity ($2k loan paydown + $30k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Middlesex County population projected at -21% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$51k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 102 days — a 9% lower offer ($268k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 80% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→17/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $123,906 (58.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 102 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 58% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
7. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.42% ✗
• Cap rate: 1.96%
• Cash-on-cash: -15.48%
• DSCR: 0.31
• GRM: 19.8

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $347,287
• List price: $295,000
• Delta: -15.06%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 3 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
134 Martin Ln	0.60mi	3/2.0	1,348 (+5%)	15mo	$300,000	$223	51
103 Robins Point Ave	0.17mi	2/1.5 (-1)	1,156 (-10%)	23mo	$205,000	$177	50
24 Farmers Dell Ln	0.39mi	3/2.0	1,144 (-11%)	19mo	$365,000	$319	48

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 13.5%
• Equity multiple: 2.12×
• Total profit: $92,804
• Equity at exit: $265,759

10-year hold

• IRR: 13.7%
• Equity multiple: 4.96×
• Total profit: $326,721
• Equity at exit: $573,120

Cash invested: $82,600 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 55 Moderately Landlord-Leaning
• State Virginia: 55 Moderately Landlord-Leaning · D+2
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

VRLTA gives some tenant protections; Northern Virginia courts slower; rural VA landlord-leaning.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 23043

• Home prices YoY: 11.6%
• Active inventory: 38
• Price-to-rent: 19.8×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,239 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,547
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$369 /mo · $4,425/yr
• Insurance: −$123
• HOA: −$6
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$260
• Net cashflow: $-1,066

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,588

Max offer price $140,774

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-862	-5% $-964	+0% $-1,066	+5% $-1,168	+10% $-1,270
Rent	-10% $-1,164	-5% $-1,115	+0% $-1,066	+5% $-1,017	+10% $-968
Rate	-1.0pp $-917	-0.5pp $-991	base $-1,066	+0.5pp $-1,142	+1.0pp $-1,220

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $73,750
• Closing costs: $8,850
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $6 · $72/yr
• Likely covers: water

Listing history 17 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $295,000 Active 102 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $295,000 Active 100 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $295,000 Active 99 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $295,000 Active 98 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $295,000 Active 97 DOM
6. 2026-06-15
   days on market $295,000 Active 96 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $295,000 Active 95 DOM
8. 2026-06-12
   days on market $295,000 Active 94 DOM
9. 2026-06-09
   days on market $295,000 Active 91 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    days on market $295,000 Active 90 DOM
11. 2026-06-08
    days on market $295,000 Active 89 DOM
12. 2026-06-07
    days on market $295,000 Active 88 DOM
13. 2026-06-03
    days on market $295,000 Active 85 DOM
14. 2026-06-02
    days on market $295,000 Active 84 DOM
15. 2026-06-01
    days on market $295,000 Active 83 DOM
16. 2026-05-31
    days on market $295,000 Active 82 DOM
17. 2026-03-10
    listed $295,000 Active 202-char remark

    Show marketing remark (202 chars)

    Delta Shores, To be Constructed, 3 Bedroom 2 bath Ranch style house with granite countertops, stainless appliances, vaulted ceiling in living room kitchen area, in water access community near Deltaville

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥103°F today · 17 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 80% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $14,869
• − Mortgage interest: −$16,525
• − Property taxes: −$4,425
• − Insurance: −$1,475
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,189
• − Management: −$1,189
• − HOA: −$72
• − Depreciation: −$8,582
• Taxable loss: −$18,589
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$4,461
• After-tax cash flow: $-8,329/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Middlesex County Public School District
• NCES district ID: 5102490
• Math proficiency: 45% ▼ -35.00%
• Reading proficiency: 59% ▼ -11.00%
• Median HH income: $51,986
• Composite: 44.58/100
• National rank: #2783
• State rank: #90 of 131 in VA

Livability — Deltaville

• Score: 60/100
• State rank: #434
• US rank: #18625

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living C+ Crime B- Employment C Housing C- Health & safety B+ User ratings D-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• City population: 1,528
• Population (ZIP): 1,528

Population outlook (Middlesex County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 9,829 people
• By 2030: 9,340 · -5.0%
• By 2040: 8,411 · -14.4%
• By 2050: 7,795 · -20.7%
• By 2075: 7,471 · -24.0%
• By 2100: 7,049 · -28.3%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (89%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 89% Asian 6% Two or more races 5% Hispanic / Latino 2%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 5% Serbian 3% Slovak 2%
• Foreign-born: 6% · Canada
• Languages at home: 94% English-only · Other Indo-European 6% Russian/Polish/Slavic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Middlesex

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+27.4) · D 35.9% · R 63.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: -8.2pp toward R · 2008: -19.2pp · 2024: -27.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+27.4 2020: R+25.1 2016: R+26.0 2012: R+20.6 2008: R+19.2

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 29.04%
• Current HPI: 279.5259
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.40%
• F500 in state: 50

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in VA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Aerospace / Defense	4	$236B
▸Technology / Defense	3	$32B
▸Financial Services	2	$176B
▸Utilities	2	$27B
▸Insurance	2	$25B
▸Technology	2	$15B

Price history

1 event — show timeline

• 2026-03-10 Listed $295,000 CBRAR