123 Zinnia Ln W · Poinciana, FL 34759

$249,900

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,854 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 187 Days on market

Built 2023 0.27 ac lot $90/mo HOA · 4% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +10.0/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Appreciation +4.3/10.0
• 1% rule +3.6/10.0
• Schools +3.5/10.0
• DSCR +2.9/10.0
• Livability +2.9/5.0
• Rent growth +2.8/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks MLS

Pre-Construction. To be built. Brand new builder owned 4/2 spec home with estimated completion date of June 2023. CBS construction with full builder warranties. Terrific plan featuring large great room, solid surface tops in kitchen, extensive ceramic tile flooring, refrigerator / washer / dryer and much, much more.

Key facts

• Newly built
• Solar powered
• Ample parking

Tags

• SOLAR POWERED
• NEWLY BUILT
• OVERSIZED DRIVEWAY
• UNIQUE POSITIONING
• FLAG LOT
• AMPLE PARKING

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Home warranty included; Total building area reported as 2,304; Living area reported as 1,867 (builder source); Lot approximately 0.27 acres (1/4 to less than 1/2 acre)
• Financial info: Lease restrictions applicable
• HOA & community: Association-Poinciana Villages HOA — $90 monthly; Pets allowed (dogs OK); Association fees required

Exterior

• Parking: Attached 2-car garage (20 x 20)
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer; Cable available
• Home design: Single-family residence; One story; Completed condition; Faces east; Residential zoning
• Construction: Block and stucco construction; Shingle roof; Slab foundation; Built by Maronda Homes (Model: Mesquite G4)
• Exterior features: Paved lot; Sliding doors

Interior

• Kitchen: Cooktop; Range; Dishwasher; Disposal; Refrigerator; Electric water heater
• Bedrooms: 4 bedrooms
• Flooring: Carpet; Ceramic tile
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central heating (electric); Central air conditioning
• Interior features: Split-bedroom floor plan; Walk-in closets; Thermal windows; Sliding doors
• Laundry & utility: Washer; Dryer; Inside laundry; Great room; Inside utility

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $250k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-149 ($-2k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $224k (10.5% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $214k (14.2% below list).
• Recommended offer: $214k (14.2% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 5.6% vs local median 4.2% in Poinciana — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 57/100 on livability (#859 in FL) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: employment D+, amenities F, commute F.
• Polk (suburban): math 39% / reading 43% proficiency, ranked #62 of 73 in FL (top 85%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Laurel Elementary School (math 26% / reading 34%, grade F, #1,882 of 2,144 statewide, top 88%, 1,058 students, 50% FRL); Lake Marion Creek Middle School (math 22% / reading 27%, grade F, #522 of 571 statewide, top 93%, 1,044 students, 58% FRL); New Beginnings High School (math 5% / reading 8%, grade F, #655 of 667 statewide, top 98%, 753 students, 66% FRL, charter) — zoned schools at 58% FRL track the district average.
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 20% at this address vs 41% district-wide (-21 pts) — the specific schools serving this property underperform the Polk average; the district grade overstates school quality for this exact location.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+1.1%/yr); 1155 active listings in the ZIP; 40 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 16d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 10,384 units permitted in Polk County in 2024 (1,716 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 37% of the median local income ($69k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-1.5%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Polk County population projected at +33% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 187 days — a 12% lower offer ($220k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 7 sale attempts since 4y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $65k (21%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→23/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $214,321 (14.2% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 187 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 14% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
7. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.86% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.58%
• Cash-on-cash: -2.55%
• DSCR: 0.89
• GRM: 9.7

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-1.48% appreciation · 1.14% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -13.2%
• Equity multiple: 0.46×
• Total profit: $-37,472
• Equity at exit: $54,634

10-year hold

• IRR: -8.2%
• Equity multiple: 0.36×
• Total profit: $-45,014
• Equity at exit: $52,651

Cash invested: $69,972 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 34759

• Home prices YoY: -0.5%
• Rents YoY: 1.1%
• Active inventory: 1155
• Price-to-rent: 9.7×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,143 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,311
• Tax from tax record: −$337 /mo · $4,047/yr
• Insurance: −$104
• HOA: −$90
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$450
• Net cashflow: $-149

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,331

Max offer price $223,627

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-7	-5% $-78	+0% $-149	+5% $-219	+10% $-290
Rent	-10% $-318	-5% $-233	+0% $-149	+5% $-64	+10% $21
Rate	-1.0pp $-23	-0.5pp $-85	base $-149	+0.5pp $-213	+1.0pp $-279

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $62,475
• Closing costs: $7,497
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 40 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
105 Zinnia Ln W Kissimmee, FL	4.0	2.0	1600	$2,100	$1.31	5d	1	0.15mi
207 Begonia Ln Kissimmee, FL	4.0	2.0	1623	$1,925	$1.19	25d	1	0.16mi
302 W Aster Ct Kissimmee, FL	4.0	2.0	1670	$2,240	$1.34	5d	1	0.21mi
2005 Maple Ln Kissimmee, FL	4.0	2.0	1669	$1,719	$1.03	5d	1	0.23mi
2006 Maple Ln Kissimmee, FL	4.0	2.0	1886	$2,040	$1.08	5d	1	0.25mi
333 Daffodil Ln Kissimmee, FL	4.0	2.0	1851	$2,040	$1.10	15d	1	0.33mi
305 Elderberry Ct Kissimmee, FL	4.0	2.0	1560	$2,000	$1.28	5d	1	0.34mi
339 W Aster Ct Kissimmee, FL	3.0–4.0	2.0–3.0	1504	$2,345	$1.56	4d	1	0.35mi
222 Fig Ct Kissimmee, FL	4.0	2.5	1823	$1,970	$1.08	5d	1	0.36mi
222 Fig Ct Kissimmee, FL	3.0	2.0	1852	$1,970	$1.06	4d	1	0.36mi
302 Elderberry Ct Kissimmee, FL	4.0	2.0	1670	$2,200	$1.32	25d	1	0.37mi
107 Lily Ln Kissimmee, FL	4.0	2.0	1670	$2,090	$1.25	25d	1	0.37mi
216 Fig Ct Kissimmee, FL	4.0	2.5	1823	$2,080	$1.14	16d	1	0.38mi
216 Fig Ct Kissimmee, FL	3.0	2.0	1852	$2,005	$1.08	5d	1	0.38mi
204 Fig Ct Kissimmee, FL	4.0	2.5	1823	$2,080	$1.14	25d	1	0.42mi
3 Magnolia Blossom Ln Kissimmee, FL	4.0	2.0	1670	$1,995	$1.19	21d	1	0.42mi
309 Fern Ct Kissimmee, FL	4.0	2.5	1767	$2,150	$1.22	5d	1	0.44mi
319 Erie Dr Kissimmee, FL	3.0	2.0	1310	$1,765	$1.35	15d	1	0.45mi
316 Fern Ct Kissimmee, FL	4.0	2.0	1605	$1,775	$1.11	5d	1	0.49mi
210 Goldenrod Ln Kissimmee, FL	4.0	2.0	1626	$1,875	$1.15	25d	1	0.49mi
207 Gladiola Ct Kissimmee, FL	4.0	2.0	1605	$1,855	$1.16	5d	1	0.52mi
439 Caraway Dr Kissimmee, FL	4.0	2.0	1791	$1,800	$1.01	5d	1	0.55mi
29 Orchid Ct Kissimmee, FL	4.0	2.0	1670	$1,890	$1.13	5d	1	0.56mi
260 Gladiola Ct Kissimmee, FL	4.0	2.0	1670	$2,065	$1.24	5d	1	0.57mi
263 Gladiola Ct Kissimmee, FL	4.0	2.0	1605	$1,750	$1.09	16d	1	0.60mi
452 Cinnamon Dr Kissimmee, FL	4.0	2.0	1793	$2,000	$1.12	25d	1	0.61mi
446 Caraway Dr Kissimmee, FL	3.0	2.0	1334	$1,675	$1.26	25d	1	0.61mi
404 Cinnamon Dr Kissimmee, FL	3.0	2.0	1321	$1,775	$1.34	16d	1	0.64mi
922 Centaury Dr Unit 1 Poinciana, FL	3.0	3.0	2166	$1,900	$0.88	16d	1	0.64mi
325 Hibiscus Dr Kissimmee, FL	4.0	2.0	1605	$1,995	$1.24	5d	1	0.65mi
260 Hyacinth Ct Kissimmee, FL	4.0	2.0	1400	$1,765	$1.26	25d	1	0.65mi
99 Orchid Ln Kissimmee, FL	3.0	2.0	1708	$1,900	$1.11	16d	1	0.66mi
2140 Mystic Ring Loop Kissimmee, FL	3.0	2.0	1245	$1,495	$1.20	16d	1	0.67mi
2150 Mystic Ring Loop Kissimmee, FL	3.0	2.0	1245	$1,700	$1.37	13d	1	0.68mi
1110 Chervil Dr Kissimmee, FL	3.0	2.5	2110	$1,575	$0.75	25d	1	0.68mi
1282 Clove Dr Kissimmee, FL	4.0	2.5	1906	$1,600	$0.84	5d	1	0.68mi
319 Erie Ct Kissimmee, FL	3.0	2.0	1310	$1,815	$1.39	25d	1	0.68mi
119 Tulip Ln Kissimmee, FL	4.0	2.0	1670	$2,095	$1.25	25d	1	0.68mi
1130 Chervil Dr Kissimmee, FL	3.0	2.5	1495	$1,575	$1.05	25d	1	0.70mi
431 Arkansas Ct Kissimmee, FL	4.0	2.5	1764	$1,895	$1.07	5d	1	0.71mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $90 · $1,080/yr

Listing history 39 events

1. 2026-06-22
   days on market $249,900 Active 187 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $249,900 Active 184 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $249,900 Active 183 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $249,900 Active 182 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $249,900 Active 181 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   pricedays on market $249,900 Active 179 DOM
7. 2026-06-10
   days on market $259,900 Active 176 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $259,900 Active 175 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $259,900 Active 174 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $259,900 Active 173 DOM
11. 2026-06-05
    days on market $259,900 Active 170 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    days on market $259,900 Active 168 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    price $259,900 Active 167 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $269,900 Active 167 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $269,900 Active 166 DOM
16. 2026-05-22
    price $269,900
17. 2026-05-21
    price $279,900
18. 2026-05-18
    price $289,900
19. 2026-05-10
    price $299,900
20. 2026-04-28
    status Active
21. 2026-04-28
    price $305,000
22. 2026-04-17
    status Pending
23. 2026-04-17
    price $81,501
24. 2025-12-23
    status Active
25. 2025-12-23
    price $359,900
26. 2025-06-12
    status Pending
27. 2025-06-12
    price $82,900
28. 2025-05-26
    listed $315,000 Active
29. 2025-03-31
    historical
30. 2025-01-20
    listed $340,000 Active
31. 2023-09-22
    soldstatus $306,990 Closed 318-char remark

    Show marketing remark (318 chars)

    Pre-Construction. To be built. Brand new builder owned 4/2 spec home with estimated completion date of June 2023. CBS construction with full builder warranties. Terrific plan featuring large great room, solid surface tops in kitchen, extensive ceramic tile flooring, refrigerator / washer / dryer and much, much more.

32. 2023-09-18
    soldstatus $322,850
33. 2023-09-18
    listed $322,850
34. 2023-08-04
    status Active 318-char remark

    Show marketing remark (318 chars)

    Pre-Construction. To be built. Brand new builder owned 4/2 spec home with estimated completion date of June 2023. CBS construction with full builder warranties. Terrific plan featuring large great room, solid surface tops in kitchen, extensive ceramic tile flooring, refrigerator / washer / dryer and much, much more.

35. 2023-08-04
    price $346,990 318-char remark

    Show marketing remark (318 chars)

    Pre-Construction. To be built. Brand new builder owned 4/2 spec home with estimated completion date of June 2023. CBS construction with full builder warranties. Terrific plan featuring large great room, solid surface tops in kitchen, extensive ceramic tile flooring, refrigerator / washer / dryer and much, much more.

36. 2023-04-14
    soldstatus $54,943
37. 2023-02-09
    status Pending 318-char remark

    Show marketing remark (318 chars)

    Pre-Construction. To be built. Brand new builder owned 4/2 spec home with estimated completion date of June 2023. CBS construction with full builder warranties. Terrific plan featuring large great room, solid surface tops in kitchen, extensive ceramic tile flooring, refrigerator / washer / dryer and much, much more.

38. 2022-12-16
    listed $322,850 Active 318-char remark

    Show marketing remark (318 chars)

    Pre-Construction. To be built. Brand new builder owned 4/2 spec home with estimated completion date of June 2023. CBS construction with full builder warranties. Terrific plan featuring large great room, solid surface tops in kitchen, extensive ceramic tile flooring, refrigerator / washer / dryer and much, much more.

39. 2022-06-24
    soldstatus $45,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast FL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $4,047 · $337/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $4,047 · $337/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥108°F today · 23 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $25,719
• − Mortgage interest: −$13,998
• − Property taxes: −$4,047
• − Insurance: −$1,250
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,057
• − Management: −$2,057
• − HOA: −$1,080
• − Depreciation: −$7,270
• Taxable loss: −$6,041
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,450
• After-tax cash flow: $-335/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Polk
• NCES district ID: 1201590
• Math proficiency: 39% ▼ -11.00%
• Reading proficiency: 43% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $43,979
• Composite: 34.74/100
• National rank: #5132
• State rank: #62 of 73 in FL

Livability — Poinciana

• Score: 57/100
• State rank: #859
• US rank: #21760

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime C Employment D+ Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Poinciana, FL
• County: Polk County · 740,051 people
• City population: 91,336
• Metro: Lakeland-Winter Haven, FL
• Population (ZIP): 44,568
• Household income: $69,373
• Rent vs Own: 20.4% rent · 79.6% own
• Severe rent burden: 1186.0

Population outlook (Polk County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 752,975 people
• By 2030: 804,621 · +6.9%
• By 2040: 906,117 · +20.3%
• By 2050: 1,000,476 · +32.9%
• By 2075: 1,197,520 · +59.0%
• By 2100: 1,271,518 · +68.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.62)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 55% White 21% Two or more races 20% Black 19%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 2% Puerto Rican 38% Cuban 6% Dominican 3%
• Common ancestry: Hispanic 3% Romanian 2% Scotch-Irish 1%
• Foreign-born: 17% · Canada, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 49% English-only · Spanish 48% French/Haitian/Cajun 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Polk

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+20.7) · D 39.2% · R 59.9%
• 2008→2024 swing: -14.6pp toward R · 2008: -6.1pp · 2024: -20.7pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+20.7 2020: R+14.4 2016: R+14.1 2012: R+6.8 2008: R+6.1

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -1.48%
• Current HPI: 276.6861
• Rent YoY: ▲ 1.14%
• Metro: Lakeland-Winter Haven, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

+499.8% since first listed

24 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-22 Price Changed $269,900 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-05-21 Price Changed $279,900 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-05-18 Price Changed $289,900 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-05-10 Price Changed $299,900 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-04-28 Relisted — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-04-28 Price Changed $305,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-04-17 Pending — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-04-17 Price Changed $81,501 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-12-23 Relisted — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-12-23 Price Changed $359,900 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-06-12 Pending — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-06-12 Price Changed $82,900 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-05-26 Listed $315,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-03-31 Listing Removed — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-01-20 Listed $340,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2023-09-22 Sold (MLS) $306,990 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2023-09-18 Listed $322,850 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2023-09-18 Sold (MLS) $322,850 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2023-08-04 Relisted — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2023-08-04 Price Changed $346,990 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2023-04-14 Sold (Public Records) $54,943 Public Records
• 2023-02-09 Pending — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2022-12-16 Listed $322,850 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2022-06-24 Sold (Public Records) $45,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+45.5%/yr

Latest (2025): $4,047 · +0.5% YoY. Source: county tax records.