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9882 Campanula Ct
D+ Composite 46.43
Why this score? — see what drove the D+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

  • ARV discount +15.0/15.0
  • Cash flow +7.0/30.0
  • Schools +5.7/10.0
  • Appreciation +4.2/10.0
  • 1% rule +3.8/10.0
  • Condition / age +3.8/5.0
  • Livability +3.3/5.0
  • Rent growth +2.5/5.0
  • DSCR +1.2/10.0

$299,900

9882 Campanula Ct · Connerton, FL 34637
3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,968 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 60 Days on market
Built 2022 Good condition 7,114 sqft lot 2-car garage $152/sqft · 21% below area Est $381k · 21% under $223/mo HOA · 8% of rent

🖨 Deal sheet (PDF) 📄 Offer letter ✓ Due diligence

Listing remarks MLS

Under Construction. This single-story home provides the convenience of having everything you need on one level. Two bedrooms are located near the entry, with a bathroom convenient in between. In the heart of the home is the main living area in an open design shared by the kitchen, dining room and family room, which leads to a covered patio for outdoor space. The owner's suite is complete with a private bathroom and spacious walk-in closet. Interior photos disclosed are different from the actual model being built.

Key facts

  • 7,114 sq ft lot
  • 2 garage spots
  • Community pool

Neighborhood map

Property Rental comp Retail Costco Walmart Transit Schools Stadiums Fortune 500 · Circle radius: 6.0 mi
Loading POIs…

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

  • This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $300k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

  • At list price, monthly cash flow is $-441 ($-5k/yr) — negative.
  • To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $222k (26.0% below list).
  • To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $264k (12.1% below list).
  • Recommended offer: $222k (26.0% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.

Location & tenants

  • Location reads 66/100 on livability (#596 in FL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, employment A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, health & safety F.
  • Pasco (suburban): math 50% / reading 52% proficiency, ranked #32 of 73 in FL (top 44%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
  • Zoned schools: Connerton Elementary School (math 48% / reading 57%, grade C-, #976 of 2,144 statewide, top 46%, 958 students, 39% FRL); Pine View Middle School (math 63% / reading 52%, grade B, #157 of 571 statewide, top 28%, 1,170 students, 32% FRL); Land O' Lakes High School (math 56% / reading 64%, grade C+, #106 of 667 statewide, top 16%, 2,248 students, 27% FRL) — zoned schools average 33% FRL vs 48% district-wide (16 pts lower); this property's tenant base skews higher-income than the district average.
  • Market conditions: 439 active listings in the ZIP; 27 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 76d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 81% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; high-income renter base; 6,765 units permitted in Pasco County in 2024 (1,250 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

  • Local home prices are declining (-1.5%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $5k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
  • Pasco County population projected at +29% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

  • It's been on market 60 days — a 3% lower offer ($291k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
  • 6 sale attempts since 4y ago; this cycle's ask is 12662% above the opening price — seller raised mid-cycle; expect resistance to lowballs.

Risks & watch-outs

  • Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; severe wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→26/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
Recommended offer $221,951 (26.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

  1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
  2. It's been on market 60 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 26% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
  3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
  4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
  5. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
  6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
  7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
  8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
  9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

1% rule
0.88%
Cap rate
4.53%
Cash-on-cash
-6.31%
DSCR
0.72
GRM
9.5

CMA / ARV

ARV (median comp)
$380,617
List price
$299,900
Delta
-21.21%
Verdict
UNDERPRICED
Comps
20 within 1.0 mi
Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi
Address Dist Beds/Ba Sqft Sold Price $/sf Match
9882 Red Bay Loop 0.06mi 3/2.0 1,968 (0%) 5mo $350,000 $178 93
10093 Campanula Ct 0.15mi 3/2.0 1,968 (0%) 1mo $329,250 $167 92
10021 Campanula Ct 0.13mi 3/2.0 1,968 (0%) 3mo $338,000 $172 91
9776 Campanula Ct 0.09mi 3/2.0 1,968 (0%) 10mo $357,450 $182 87
9846 Red Bay Loop 0.04mi 3/2.0 1,968 (0%) 17mo $375,000 $191 84
8969 Little Bluestem Dr 0.43mi 4/2.0 (+1) 1,939 (-2%) 2mo $372,500 $192 71
9898 Red Bay Loop 0.07mi 2/2.5 (-1) 2,242 (+14%) 2mo $375,000 $167 65
8775 Little Bluestem Dr 0.61mi 4/2.0 (+1) 1,939 (-2%) 6mo $372,500 $192 59
21565 Violet Periwinkle Dr 0.28mi 4/3.0 (+1) 2,150 (+9%) 7mo $500,000 $233 56
21577 Violet Periwinkle Dr 0.31mi 4/3.0 (+1) 2,088 (+6%) 16mo $460,000 $220 54
9912 Campanula Ct 0.03mi 2/2.5 (-1) 2,208 (+12%) 22mo $380,000 $172 53
22223 Storybook Cabin Way 0.46mi 4/2.5 (+1) 1,870 (-5%) 14mo $385,000 $206 51

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-1.54% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold
IRR
-16.9%
Equity multiple
0.31×
Total profit
$-57,581
Equity at exit
$64,718
10-year hold
IRR
-9.9%
Equity multiple
0.19×
Total profit
$-67,864
Equity at exit
$61,617

Cash invested: $83,972 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

Overall (STATE)
87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
State Florida
87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
County
— inherits STATE
City
— inherits STATE
3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.
Buyer's market Market conditions within 1.0 mi — comparable homes for sale

Active competition Active MLS

For sale now
16 active · 11 under contract
Months of supply
8.0 mo (12%/mo absorbed)
Median asking
$379,950 ($203/sqft)
Median days on market
55 d
This list price
lowest-priced of the active set
ARV vs active asking
-4.6% vs current asking $/sqft

Closed sales set the value; these active listings set current market conditions and a practical price ceiling.

ZIP-level market 34637

Home prices YoY
-1.2%
Active inventory
439
Price-to-rent
9.5×

Monthly cashflow live

Estimated rent
$2,637 high interval (Pro) →
Mortgage (P&I)
$1,573
Tax from tax record
$604 /mo · $7,249/yr
Insurance
$125
HOA
$223
Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt
$554
Net cashflow
$-441

Break-even live

Break-even rent $3,196
Max offer price $221,951
Occupancy floor

Sensitivity live

Price -10% $-271 -5% $-356 +0% $-441 +5% $-526 +10% $-611
Rent -10% $-650 -5% $-545 +0% $-441 +5% $-337 +10% $-233
Rate -1.0pp $-290 -0.5pp $-365 base $-441 +0.5pp $-519 +1.0pp $-598

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

Down payment
$74,975
Closing costs
$8,997
Reserves months
Total cash needed

Loan-product check · same deal, 3 products live

Conventional

25% down · 7.5% · 30yr

Cash invested
Monthly P&I
Monthly cashflow
DSCR
Eligible?

Personal DTI + credit; lowest rate.

DSCR

20% down · 8.5% · 30yr

Cash invested
Monthly P&I
Monthly cashflow
DSCR
Eligible?

No personal income docs; deal must DSCR.

Hard money

10% down · 12.0% · 12mo

Cash invested
Monthly P&I
Monthly cashflow
DSCR
Eligible?

Short-term bridge; refi at stabilization.

Rent comps 27 comps

AddressBedsBaths SqftRent$/sqft DOM Units Dist
9890 Red Bay Loop Land O Lakes, FL 3.0 2.0 1949 $2,595 $1.33 78d 1 0.06mi
9967 Red Bay Loop Land O Lakes, FL 3.0 2.0 1968 $2,199 $1.12 6d 1 0.09mi
9750 Campanula Ct Land O Lakes, FL 3.0 2.5 2208 $2,700 $1.22 120d 1 0.14mi
21831 Adriatic Ln Land O Lakes, FL 3.0 3.0 1601 $1,945 $1.21 77d 1 0.16mi
21831 Adriatic Ln Land O Lakes, FL 3.0 3.0 1601 $1,995 $1.25 95d 1 0.16mi
21831 Adriatic Ln Land O Lakes, FL 3.0 3.0 1601 $1,995 $1.25 100d 1 0.16mi
21869 Adriatic Ln Land O Lakes, FL 3.0 2.5 1601 $2,400 $1.50 120d 1 0.17mi
21881 Lyonia Ln Land O Lakes, FL 3.0 2.5 1601 $2,000 $1.25 4d 1 0.22mi
21818 Lyonia Ln Land O Lakes, FL 3.0 2.5 1601 $2,250 $1.41 110d 1 0.24mi
9676 Nyssa St Land O Lakes, FL 3.0 2.5 1601 $2,050 $1.28 80d 1 0.25mi
9094 Gallantree Pl Land O Lakes, FL 3.0 2.5 1601 $2,100 $1.31 10d 1 0.94mi
8897 Flourish Dr Land O Lakes, FL 3.0 2.0 1614 $2,149 $1.33 10d 1 0.94mi
21816 Crest Meadow Dr Land O Lakes, FL 4.0 3.0 2061 $3,200 $1.55 64d 1 0.95mi
9001 Gallantree Pl Land O Lakes, FL 3.0 2.5 1601 $2,100 $1.31 62d 1 1.02mi
9645 Carabiner Way Land O' Lakes, FL 4.0 2.5 1870 $2,500 $1.34 77d 1 1.03mi
8948 Gallantree Pl Land O Lakes, FL 3.0 2.5 1601 $2,050 $1.28 29d 1 1.07mi
8948 Gallantree Pl Land O Lakes, FL 3.0 2.5 1601 $2,050 $1.28 32d 1 1.07mi
8948 Gallantree Pl Land O Lakes, FL 3.0 2.5 1601 $2,145 $1.34 44d 1 1.07mi
8938 Gallantree Pl Land O Lakes, FL 3.0 2.5 1851 $2,550 $1.38 79d 1 1.08mi
8827 Sentiero Dr Land O Lakes, FL 3.0 2.0 2050 $2,795 $1.36 74d 1 1.10mi
8827 Sentiero Dr Land O Lakes, FL 3.0 2.0 2050 $2,795 $1.36 78d 1 1.10mi
8862 Gallantree Pl Unit 8862-Townhouse Land O' Lakes, FL 3.0 2.5 1601 $2,195 $1.37 108d 1 1.13mi
9344 Bella Vita Cir Land O Lakes, FL 3.0 2.0 2072 $2,900 $1.40 75d 1 1.17mi
8879 Coqui Song Ln Land O' Lakes, FL 3.0 2.5 1851 $2,300 $1.24 44d 1 1.28mi
9436 Scouter Bee Pl Land O' Lakes, FL 2.0 2.5 1951 $2,350 $1.20 100d 1 1.46mi
22310 Blazing Star Run Land O Lakes, FL 4.0 2.5 1870 $2,450 $1.31 75d 1 1.46mi
22430 Blazing Star Run Land O' Lakes, FL 4.0 2.0 1936 $2,550 $1.32 40d 1 1.50mi

Property features AI

Finance

Other
CDD applicableHomestead status indicatedLease restrictions apply
HOA & community
Monthly HOA fee of $223Association fee requiredCommunity clubhouseCommunity mailboxDeed restrictionsDog parkFitness centerGolf carts allowedIrrigation with reclaimed waterNo truck/RV/motorcycle parkingPlaygroundCommunity poolSidewalksTennis courtsStreet lightsCats and dogs allowed

Exterior

Parking
Attached 2-car garage
Utilities
Public waterPublic sewerElectricity connectedCable connectedFiber optics availableBB/HS internet availableSewer connectedWater connected
Home design
Residential villaSingle-storyFaces west
Construction
Block and stucco constructionShingle roofSlab foundationBuilt on 0.16-acre lot
Exterior features
SidewalkSliding doorsIrrigation equipmentAsphalt road access

Interior

Kitchen
Convection ovenDishwasherDisposalMicrowaveElectric water heater
Bedrooms
3 bedrooms
Flooring
CarpetCeramic tile
Bathrooms
2 full bathrooms
Heating & cooling
Central heatingCentral air
Interior features
Ceiling fansCrown moldingEat-in kitchenHigh ceilingsLiving room/dining room comboOpen floorplanThermostatWalk-in closets
Laundry & utility
Washer hookupDryer hookup (electric)Inside laundry room

Listing history 17 events

  1. 2026-06-17
    days on market $299,900 Active 60 DOM
  2. 2026-06-16
    days on market $299,900 Active 59 DOM
  3. 2026-06-15
    days on market $299,900 Active 58 DOM
  4. 2026-06-13
    statusdays on market $299,900 Active 56 DOM
  5. 2026-05-31
    remarks 670-char remark
  6. 2026-05-31
    status $299,900 Pending 52 DOM
  7. 2026-05-21
    listed $2,350
  8. 2026-05-20
    price $299,900
  9. 2026-04-08
    listed $325,900 Active
  10. 2026-04-01
    historical
  11. 2026-03-13
    price $340,000
  12. 2026-02-27
    price $353,000
  13. 2025-11-20
    price $360,000
  14. 2025-10-24
    listed $370,000 Active
  15. 2022-08-26
    soldstatus $386,020 Closed 518-char remark
    Show marketing remark (518 chars)

    Under Construction. This single-story home provides the convenience of having everything you need on one level. Two bedrooms are located near the entry, with a bathroom convenient in between. In the heart of the home is the main living area in an open design shared by the kitchen, dining room and family room, which leads to a covered patio for outdoor space. The owner's suite is complete with a private bathroom and spacious walk-in closet. Interior photos disclosed are different from the actual model being built.

  16. 2022-07-29
    status Pending 518-char remark
    Show marketing remark (518 chars)

    Under Construction. This single-story home provides the convenience of having everything you need on one level. Two bedrooms are located near the entry, with a bathroom convenient in between. In the heart of the home is the main living area in an open design shared by the kitchen, dining room and family room, which leads to a covered patio for outdoor space. The owner's suite is complete with a private bathroom and spacious walk-in closet. Interior photos disclosed are different from the actual model being built.

  17. 2022-07-27
    listed $386,020 Active 518-char remark
    Show marketing remark (518 chars)

    Under Construction. This single-story home provides the convenience of having everything you need on one level. Two bedrooms are located near the entry, with a bathroom convenient in between. In the heart of the home is the main living area in an open design shared by the kitchen, dining room and family room, which leads to a covered patio for outdoor space. The owner's suite is complete with a private bathroom and spacious walk-in closet. Interior photos disclosed are different from the actual model being built.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast FL · Resets to sale price

Current annual tax
$7,249 · $604/mo
Projected year-2 tax
$7,249 · $604/mo
Expected delta
$0/yr ($0/mo · -0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

  • 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
  • 🔥 Wildfire 8/10 Severe
  • 🌡 Heat 10/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥109°F today · 26 d/yr by 30 yrs out
  • 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
  • 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Nearby sold comps map

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Walkable amenities ~0.75 mi

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Taxation est. · year 1

Rental income
$31,648
− Mortgage interest
−$16,799
− Property taxes
−$7,249
− Insurance
−$1,500
− Repairs & maintenance
−$2,532
− Management
−$2,532
− HOA
−$2,676
− Depreciation
−$8,724
Taxable loss
−$10,364
combined federal + state — saved on this device
Est. tax savings @ 24.0%
+$2,487
After-tax cash flow
$-2,808/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 12 photos

Good 75/100 Cosmetic rehab Est. rehab $9,840–$29,520 screening

This single-family home is in good condition with modern upgrades and a well-maintained exterior. It is ready for immediate occupancy and would benefit from a fresh coat of paint on the exterior trim.

Value-add opportunities

  • Resale Paint exterior trim — Fresh paint can enhance curb appeal and home value.
  • Rental Clean gutters — Clean gutters improve drainage and reduce maintenance costs for tenants.

ⓘ Rehab cost is a screening estimate — Cosmetic scope × the home's square footage at US $/sqft rules of thumb (the same model as the Flip Finder). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting.

D Composite school gradezoned avg 57/100

Zoned Schools

Elementary Connerton Elementary School C- FL #976/2,144 Nat'l #11,114/41,679 Middle Pine View Middle School B FL #157/571 Nat'l #2,146/14,009 High Land O' Lakes High School C+ FL #106/667 Nat'l #3,545/17,239

Schools (NCES district)

District
Pasco
NCES district ID
1201530
Math proficiency
50% ▼ -10.00%
Reading proficiency
52% ▼ -5.00%
Median HH income
$45,039
Composite
43.14/100
National rank
#3074
State rank
#32 of 73 in FL
C Composite livability gradescore 66/100

Livability — Connerton

Score
66/100
State rank
#596
US rank
#11437

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living C+ Crime A+ Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

Census place
Connerton, FL
County
Pasco County · 570,045 people
City population
11,398
Metro
Tampa-St. Petersburg-Clearwater, FL
Population (ZIP)
13,049
Household income
$115,214
Rent vs Own
8.7% rent · 91.3% own

Population outlook (Pasco County) Hauer SSP2

Today (2025)
570,045 people
By 2030
605,844 · +6.3%
By 2040
674,806 · +18.4%
By 2050
736,022 · +29.1%
By 2075
862,900 · +51.4%
By 2100
906,364 · +59.0%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

Neighborhood character
Predominantly White (70%)
Race & ethnicity
White 70% Hispanic / Latino 16% Two or more races 10% Black 7% Asian 5%
Hispanic origin (detail)
Mexican 1% Puerto Rican 10% Cuban 1%
Common ancestry
Romanian 5% Italian 3% Iranian 2%
Foreign-born
8% · Canada
Languages at home
85% English-only · Spanish 8% Other Indo-European 4% Tagalog/Filipino 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Pasco

2024 margin
Strong R (+25.2) · D 36.9% · R 62.1% · Other 1.0%
2008→2024 swing
-21.6pp toward R · 2008: -3.6pp · 2024: -25.2pp
All cycles
2024: R+25.2 2020: R+20.1 2016: R+21.6 2012: R+6.7 2008: R+3.6

Not yet ingested

Civics

Price history

-99.4% since first listed
16 events — show timeline
  • 2026-06-18 Rental Removed $2,350 STELLARMLS
  • 2026-06-12 Listed for Rent $2,350 STELLARMLS
  • 2026-06-09 Relisted Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
  • 2026-05-30 Rental Removed $2,350 STELLARMLS
  • 2026-05-30 Pending Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
  • 2026-05-21 Listed for Rent $2,350 STELLARMLS
  • 2026-05-20 Price Changed $299,900 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
  • 2026-04-08 Listed $325,900 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
  • 2026-04-01 Listing Removed Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
  • 2026-03-13 Price Changed $340,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
  • 2026-02-27 Price Changed $353,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
  • 2025-11-20 Price Changed $360,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
  • 2025-10-24 Listed $370,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
  • 2022-08-26 Sold (MLS) $386,020 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
  • 2022-07-29 Pending Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
  • 2022-07-27 Listed $386,020 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid

Property tax history

+109.0%/yr

Latest (2025): $7,249 · -2.8% YoY. Source: county tax records.

Cash-flow waterfall

monthly

Sold comps — $/sqft

last 12 mo · ≤1 mi

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