200 Burgundy Ln · Ekron, KY 40117

$219,900

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,586 sqft · Manufactured · 10 Days on market

Built 2026 Est $206k · 7% over

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Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +7.9/30.0
• Appreciation +7.6/10.0
• ARV discount +4.5/15.0
• Schools +3.8/10.0
• Livability +3.2/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• 1% rule +2.4/10.0
• DSCR +2.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Brand new 3 bedroom, 2 bathroom home in Ekron, KY! This beautiful new construction offers modern finishes, a flex room that could easily be converted to a 4th, an open and functional layout, and the peace of mind that comes with a transferable manufacturer warranty. Enjoy a fresh, move-in ready space designed for comfort and convenience. Financing options make this home even more accessible—FHA qualified with 100% financing available through VA and USDA. Don’t miss your chance to own a brand new home in a great location!

Key facts

• Built 2026
• Listed 10 days

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $220k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-231 ($-3k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $187k (15.2% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $163k (25.8% below list).
• Recommended offer: $163k (25.8% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 64/100 on livability (#291 in KY) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: employment D, amenities F, commute F.
• Meade County (rural): math 41% / reading 48% proficiency, ranked #21 of 165 in KY (top 13%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 16 active listings in the ZIP; 124 units permitted in Meade County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $13k of equity ($2k loan paydown + $12k appreciation (5.3% local appreciation)).
• Meade County population projected at -20% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• By year 3, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$32k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• Only 10 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• 2 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: moderate wildfire risk — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $163,163 (25.8% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.74% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.03%
• Cash-on-cash: -4.50%
• DSCR: 0.80
• GRM: 11.2

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $206,180
• Comps found: 1

Show comp detail 1 sale within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
280 Chablis Ln	0.19mi	3/2.0	1,580 (-0%)	10mo	$205,000	$130	82

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

5.26% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 9.8%
• Equity multiple: 1.64×
• Total profit: $39,338
• Equity at exit: $128,148

10-year hold

• IRR: 11.2%
• Equity multiple: 3.11×
• Total profit: $130,203
• Equity at exit: $224,145

Cash invested: $61,572 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 83 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Kentucky: 83 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+16
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

7-day pay-or-quit (URLTA cities); generally landlord-friendly.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 40117

• Home prices YoY: 2.3%
• Active inventory: 16
• Price-to-rent: 11.2×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,632 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,153
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$275 /mo · $3,298/yr
• Insurance: −$92
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$343
• Net cashflow: $-231

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,924

Max offer price $186,519

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-79	-5% $-155	+0% $-231	+5% $-307	+10% $-383
Rent	-10% $-360	-5% $-295	+0% $-231	+5% $-166	+10% $-102
Rate	-1.0pp $-120	-0.5pp $-175	base $-231	+0.5pp $-288	+1.0pp $-346

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $54,975
• Closing costs: $6,597
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 5 events

1. 2026-05-22
   soldstatus $219,900 Closed 538-char remark

   Show marketing remark (538 chars)

   Brand new 3 bedroom, 2 bathroom home in Ekron, KY! This beautiful new construction offers modern finishes, a flex room that could easily be converted to a 4th, an open and functional layout, and the peace of mind that comes with a transferable manufacturer warranty. Enjoy a fresh, move-in ready space designed for comfort and convenience. Financing options make this home even more accessible—FHA qualified with 100% financing available through VA and USDA. Don’t miss your chance to own a brand new home in a great location!

2. 2026-04-24
   status Pending

   Show marketing remark (538 chars)

   Brand new 3 bedroom, 2 bathroom home in Ekron, KY! This beautiful new construction offers modern finishes, a flex room that could easily be converted to a 4th, an open and functional layout, and the peace of mind that comes with a transferable manufacturer warranty. Enjoy a fresh, move-in ready space designed for comfort and convenience. Financing options make this home even more accessible—FHA qualified with 100% financing available through VA and USDA. Don’t miss your chance to own a brand new home in a great location!

3. 2026-04-24
   status Pending 538-char remark

   Show marketing remark (538 chars)

   Brand new 3 bedroom, 2 bathroom home in Ekron, KY! This beautiful new construction offers modern finishes, a flex room that could easily be converted to a 4th, an open and functional layout, and the peace of mind that comes with a transferable manufacturer warranty. Enjoy a fresh, move-in ready space designed for comfort and convenience. Financing options make this home even more accessible—FHA qualified with 100% financing available through VA and USDA. Don’t miss your chance to own a brand new home in a great location!

4. 2026-04-14
   listed $219,900 Active 538-char remark

   Show marketing remark (538 chars)

   Brand new 3 bedroom, 2 bathroom home in Ekron, KY! This beautiful new construction offers modern finishes, a flex room that could easily be converted to a 4th, an open and functional layout, and the peace of mind that comes with a transferable manufacturer warranty. Enjoy a fresh, move-in ready space designed for comfort and convenience. Financing options make this home even more accessible—FHA qualified with 100% financing available through VA and USDA. Don’t miss your chance to own a brand new home in a great location!

5. 2026-04-14
   listed $219,900 Active

   Show marketing remark (538 chars)

   Brand new 3 bedroom, 2 bathroom home in Ekron, KY! This beautiful new construction offers modern finishes, a flex room that could easily be converted to a 4th, an open and functional layout, and the peace of mind that comes with a transferable manufacturer warranty. Enjoy a fresh, move-in ready space designed for comfort and convenience. Financing options make this home even more accessible—FHA qualified with 100% financing available through VA and USDA. Don’t miss your chance to own a brand new home in a great location!

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 4/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥105°F today · 18 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low 4% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $19,580
• − Mortgage interest: −$12,318
• − Property taxes: −$3,298
• − Insurance: −$1,100
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,566
• − Management: −$1,566
• − Depreciation: −$6,397
• Taxable loss: −$6,666
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,600
• After-tax cash flow: $-1,168/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Meade County
• NCES district ID: 2104050
• Math proficiency: 41% ▼ -15.00%
• Reading proficiency: 48% ▼ -12.00%
• Median HH income: $49,628
• Composite: 38.17/100
• National rank: #4265
• State rank: #21 of 165 in KY

Livability — Ekron

• Score: 64/100
• State rank: #291
• US rank: #14056

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime B- Employment D Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 2,089

Population outlook (Meade County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 26,977 people
• By 2030: 26,162 · -3.0%
• By 2040: 24,029 · -10.9%
• By 2050: 21,658 · -19.7%
• By 2075: 16,994 · -37.0%
• By 2100: 15,586 · -42.2%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (94%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 94% Black 4% Hispanic / Latino 1%
• Common ancestry: Serbian 2% Lithuanian 1% Slovak 1%
• Foreign-born: 2% · Canada
• Languages at home: 97% English-only · German/W. Germanic 1% Spanish 1% Russian/Polish/Slavic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Meade

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+52.1) · D 23.2% · R 75.3% · Other 1.5%
• 2008→2024 swing: -31.1pp toward R · 2008: -20.9pp · 2024: -52.1pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+52.1 2020: R+46.4 2016: R+46.1 2012: R+22.8 2008: R+20.9

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 5.26%
• Current HPI: 233.0216
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.81%
• F500 in state: 4

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in KY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	1	$118B
▸Food / Beverage	1	$7B

Price history

+0.0% since first listed

5 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-22 Sold (MLS) $219,900 HKARMLS
• 2026-04-24 Pending — Metro Search MLS
• 2026-04-24 Pending — HKARMLS
• 2026-04-14 Listed $219,900 Metro Search MLS
• 2026-04-14 Listed $219,900 HKARMLS