858 Astor Way · The Villages, FL 32162

$364,900

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,584 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 11 Days on market

Built 2006 5,460 sqft lot Est $372k · at est. $204/mo HOA · 7% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +12.4/30.0
• ARV discount +8.4/15.0
• Schools +5.2/10.0
• DSCR +3.7/10.0
• 1% rule +3.6/10.0
• Rent growth +3.5/5.0
• Livability +3.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Location, Location. .. Welcome home to this lovely Whispering Pines residence in The Village of SABAL CHASE, walking to the pool and 5 min golf cart drive to lake Sumter. Open the glass front door and step into a spacious, open floorplan with tile flooring flowing throughout the main living space. The kitchen features a classic layout with granite countertops, abundant counter space, and a cozy breakfast nook, while the formal dining area is large enough to accommodate your full dining set. Your eyes will be drawn to the enclosed lanai — a peaceful retreat with enclosed lanai under A/C, perfect for enjoying your morning coffee or entertaining friends. The primary suite offers a large

Key facts

• Cozy breakfast nook
• Birdcage enclosure
• Open floorplan

Tags

• OPEN FLOORPLAN
• TILE FLOORING
• GRANITE COUNTERTOPS
• COZY BREAKFAST NOOK
• ENCLOSED LANAI
• BIRDCAGE ENCLOSURE

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Lot approximately 0.13 acre (60 x 91, asphalt road access)
• Financial info: Total monthly association fees reported; Total annual association fees reported
• HOA & community: Senior community; CDD fee applicable; Monthly association fee noted

Exterior

• Parking: Attached 2-car garage
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer; Cable available
• Home design: Single-family residence; One-story; South-facing entry
• Construction: Cement and vinyl siding; Shingle roof; Slab foundation; Built as Whispering Pine model
• Exterior features: Sliding doors; Sprinkler meter

Interior

• Kitchen: Range; Microwave; Refrigerator; Eat-in kitchen layout
• Bedrooms: 3 bedrooms (single-level)
• Flooring: Laminate flooring
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central heating; Central air conditioning
• Interior features: Cathedral ceilings; Ceiling fans; Eat-in kitchen; High ceilings; Open floorplan with living/dining combo; Walk-in closet(s); Skylight(s)
• Laundry & utility: Washer and dryer included; Laundry closet inside

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $365k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-60 ($-725/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $354k (2.9% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $312k (14.4% below list).
• Recommended offer: $312k (14.4% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 6.1% vs local median 5.0% in The Villages — meaningfully above typical; check what's discounted (condition, days-on-market, listing class) to confirm the premium yield is real.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 70/100 on livability (#431 in FL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, housing A, employment B+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, health & safety F.
• Sumter (rural): math 61% / reading 61% proficiency, ranked #11 of 73 in FL (top 15%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Wildwood Elementary School (math 49% / reading 52%, grade D+, #1,055 of 2,144 statewide, top 50%, 940 students, 76% FRL); South Sumter Middle School (math 55% / reading 54%, grade B-, #183 of 571 statewide, top 34%, 897 students, 61% FRL) — zoned schools average 68% FRL vs 51% district-wide (18 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+3.9%/yr); 551 active listings in the ZIP; 15 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 23d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 3,961 units permitted in Sumter County in 2024 (248 in 5+ unit buildings).
• At $3,122/mo this rent would consume 51% of the median local household income ($74k/yr) (locally 987% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $3k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $11k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Sumter County population projected at +45% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• Only 11 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→22/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $312,213 (14.4% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.86% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.09%
• Cash-on-cash: -0.71%
• DSCR: 0.97
• GRM: 9.7

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $372,240
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
1697 Jardin Ct	0.13mi	3/2.0	1,512 (-4%)	1mo	$394,000	$261	85
1884 Poppy Cir	0.14mi	3/2.0	1,512 (-4%)	3mo	$360,000	$238	84
952 Talapia Loop	0.15mi	3/2.0	1,711 (+8%)	1mo	$355,000	$207	79
978 Smyrna St	0.21mi	3/2.0	1,397 (-12%)	2mo	$342,000	$245	68
497 Little River Path	0.63mi	3/2.0	1,568 (-1%)	1mo	$374,714	$239	68
2157 Blackville Dr	0.63mi	3/2.0	1,621 (+2%)	2mo	$355,000	$219	66
849 Yemassee Loop	0.56mi	3/2.0	1,512 (-4%)	3mo	$350,000	$231	64
1542 Wyatt Ave	0.60mi	3/2.0	1,530 (-3%)	3mo	$360,000	$235	64
841 Yemassee Loop	0.58mi	3/2.0	1,667 (+5%)	2mo	$375,000	$225	62
1729 Mountville Ct	0.38mi	3/2.0	1,392 (-12%)	2mo	$300,000	$216	60
594 Lacy Pl	0.59mi	3/2.0	1,397 (-12%)	2mo	$342,000	$245	52
471 Gaskin Ln	0.72mi	3/2.0	1,732 (+9%)	4mo	$398,000	$230	48

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.92% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -16.4%
• Equity multiple: 0.41×
• Total profit: $-60,011
• Equity at exit: $54,408

10-year hold

• IRR: -6.6%
• Equity multiple: 0.56×
• Total profit: $-44,814
• Equity at exit: $31,550

Cash invested: $102,172 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 32162

• Home prices YoY: -6.9%
• Rents YoY: 3.9%
• Active inventory: 551
• Price-to-rent: 9.7×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $3,122 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,914
• Tax from tax record: −$257 /mo · $3,087/yr
• Insurance: −$152
• HOA: −$204
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$656
• Net cashflow: $-60

Break-even live

Break-even rent $3,199

Max offer price $354,226

Occupancy floor 97%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $146	-5% $43	+0% $-60	+5% $-164	+10% $-267
Rent	-10% $-307	-5% $-184	+0% $-60	+5% $63	+10% $186
Rate	-1.0pp $123	-0.5pp $32	base $-60	+0.5pp $-155	+1.0pp $-251

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $91,225
• Closing costs: $10,947
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 15 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
1009 Ridgeville Rd The Villages, FL	2.0	2.0	1188	$2,475	$2.08	23d	1	0.24mi
2014 Johnson Ct The Villages, FL	2.0	2.0	1156	$2,000	$1.73	23d	1	0.71mi
2111 Jem Path The Villages, FL	3.0	2.0	2000	$5,800	$2.90	23d	1	0.75mi
731 Baisley Trl The Villages, FL	2.0	2.0	1512	$4,500	$2.98	23d	1	0.77mi
470 Oboe Way The Villages, FL	2.0	2.0	1240	$2,200	$1.77	23d	1	0.83mi
445 Corbett Dr The Villages, FL	2.0	2.0	1100	$2,700	$2.45	23d	1	0.94mi
898 Moses Loop The Villages, FL	3.0	2.0	1911	$2,600	$1.36	23d	1	0.97mi
2368 McClellanville Ter The Villages, FL	2.0	2.0	1142	$4,800	$4.20	23d	1	1.25mi
1623 Abernethy Pl The Villages, FL	3.0	2.0	1565	$4,800	$3.07	23d	1	1.26mi
1240 Pageland Way The Villages, FL	2.0	2.0	1100	$2,400	$2.18	23d	1	1.30mi
1315 Fort Lawn Loop The Villages, FL	2.0	2.0	1392	$4,500	$3.23	23d	1	1.33mi
2372 Travis Pl The Villages, FL	2.0	2.0	1188	$2,000	$1.68	23d	1	1.36mi
1109 Alcove Loop The Villages, FL	3.0	2.0	1970	$3,000	$1.52	23d	1	1.44mi
1607 Allendale Pl The Villages, FL	2.0	2.0	1156	$2,800	$2.42	23d	1	1.45mi
2383 Camden Ter The Villages, FL	2.0	2.0	1182	$2,500	$2.12	23d	1	1.45mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $204 · $2,448/yr
• Likely covers: pool

Listing history 9 events

1. 2026-06-22
   days on market $364,900 Active 11 DOM
2. 2026-06-19
   days on market $364,900 Active 9 DOM
3. 2026-06-18
   days on market $364,900 Active 8 DOM
4. 2026-06-17
   days on market $364,900 Active 7 DOM
5. 2026-06-16
   days on market $364,900 Active 6 DOM
6. 2026-06-15
   days on market $364,900 Active 5 DOM
7. 2026-06-14
   days on market $364,900 Active 3 DOM
8. 2026-06-13
   remarks 693-char remark
9. 2026-06-13
   listed $364,900 Active 2 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast FL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $3,087 · $257/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $3,087 · $257/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥108°F today · 22 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $37,466
• − Mortgage interest: −$20,440
• − Property taxes: −$3,087
• − Insurance: −$1,824
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,997
• − Management: −$2,997
• − HOA: −$2,448
• − Depreciation: −$10,615
• Taxable loss: −$6,944
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,667
• After-tax cash flow: $942/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Sumter
• NCES district ID: 1201800
• Math proficiency: 61% ▼ -4.00%
• Reading proficiency: 61% ▼ -2.00%
• Median HH income: $48,240
• Composite: 51.74/100
• National rank: #1682
• State rank: #11 of 73 in FL

Livability — The Villages

• Score: 70/100
• State rank: #431
• US rank: #7363

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living B- Crime A+ Employment B+ Housing A Health & safety F User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: The Villages, FL
• County: Sumter County · 110,591 people
• City population: 83,973
• Metro: The Villages, FL
• Population (ZIP): 55,424
• Household income: $74,119
• Rent vs Own: 7.1% rent · 92.9% own
• Severe rent burden: 987.0

Population outlook (Sumter County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 161,172 people
• By 2030: 180,083 · +11.7%
• By 2040: 209,892 · +30.2%
• By 2050: 234,186 · +45.3%
• By 2075: 284,602 · +76.6%
• By 2100: 317,039 · +96.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (95%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 95% Two or more races 2% Hispanic / Latino 2% Asian 1% Black 1%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 7% Slovak 4% Lithuanian 4%
• Foreign-born: 5% · Canada
• Languages at home: 96% English-only · Spanish 1% Tagalog/Filipino 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Sumter

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+37.6) · D 30.9% · R 68.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: -10.6pp toward R · 2008: -27.0pp · 2024: -37.6pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+37.6 2020: R+36.1 2016: R+39.2 2012: R+34.9 2008: R+27.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -16.16%
• Current HPI: 218.1956
• Rent YoY: ▲ 3.92%
• Metro: The Villages, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

+37.8% since first listed

2 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-11 Price Changed $364,900 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-06-10 Listed $264,900 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid

Property tax history

-0.2%/yr

Latest (2025): $3,087 · +1.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.