Boxwood Plan · Lavon, TX 75166

$287,990

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,699 sqft · SingleFamily · 743 Days on market

↓ 13% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the F grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Cash flow +6.4/30.0
• Livability +3.3/5.0
• Schools +3.2/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• 1% rule +1.5/10.0
• DSCR +0.7/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

This gorgeous 3-bedroom, 2-bathroom, and 1,699-1,748 square foot home offers exceptional design with plenty of space for entertaining family and friends. The expansive 16'x22' family room is the real star of the show, and with plenty of structural options to choose from, you'll easily be able to personalize this layout to fit your specific wants and needs.

Key facts

• Exceptional design
• 2 garage spots
• Listed 743 days

Tags

• EXPANSIVE FAMILY ROOM
• EXCEPTIONAL DESIGN

🏗️ New construction. The $287,990 list price is a builder figure, so every metric below is computed on the value from comparable previous sales — $349,259.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $288k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-610 ($-7k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $261k (9.4% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $228k (20.7% below list).
• Recommended offer: $228k (20.7% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 66/100 on livability (#588 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: employment A+, housing A+, cost of living B; Watch: amenities F, commute F, health & safety F.
• Community ISD (rural): math 30% / reading 38% proficiency, ranked #479 of 826 in TX (top 58%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Leland E Edge Middle (math 25% / reading 35%, grade F, #1,056 of 1,662 statewide, top 65%, 931 students, 53% FRL) — zoned schools average 53% FRL vs 36% district-wide (18 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: 640 active listings in the ZIP; 22 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 27d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 41% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; high-income renter base; 19,194 units permitted in Collin County in 2024 (3,988 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $10k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Collin County population projected at +60% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 743 days — a 12% lower offer ($253k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Recommended offer $228,287 (20.7% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 743 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 21% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.65% ✗
• Cap rate: 4.20%
• Cash-on-cash: -7.49%
• DSCR: 0.67
• GRM: 12.7

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $349,259
• List price: $287,990
• Delta: -17.54%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
418 Silent Pond Park	0.34mi	3/2.5	1,699 (0%)	0mo	$284,990	$168	82
436 Silent Pond Park	0.36mi	3/2.0	1,649 (-3%)	0mo	$299,990	$182	78
755 Hidden Feather Dr	0.46mi	3/2.5	1,699 (0%)	1mo	$288,990	$170	76
489 Pleasant Field Dr	0.47mi	3/2.0	1,649 (-3%)	1mo	$294,990	$179	72
755 Grand Dale Dr	0.19mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,837 (+8%)	1mo	$349,990	$191	72
291 Bright Alcove Ct	0.39mi	3/2.0	1,889 (+11%)	0mo	$346,990	$184	63
519 Chase Creek Dr	0.71mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,800 (+6%)	1mo	$329,999	$183	51
471 Sweet Spring Dr	0.72mi	3/2.5	1,525 (-10%)	1mo	$259,970	$170	46
635 Dove Haven Way	0.65mi	3/2.0	1,448 (-15%)	0mo	$295,990	$204	45
615 Dove Haven Way	0.60mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,935 (+14%)	2mo	$319,990	$165	43
769 Sunglow Way	0.70mi	3/2.0	1,451 (-15%)	1mo	$294,995	$203	42
753 Sunglow Way	0.69mi	3/2.0	1,451 (-15%)	2mo	$295,990	$204	42

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -29.4%
• Equity multiple: 0.02×
• Total profit: $-95,423
• Equity at exit: $52,076

10-year hold

• IRR: -29.8%
• Equity multiple: -0.36×
• Total profit: $-132,995
• Equity at exit: $30,198

Cash invested: $97,793 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 75166

• Home prices YoY: -9.9%
• Active inventory: 640
• Price-to-rent: 10.5×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,283 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,832
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$437 /mo · $5,239/yr
• Insurance: −$146
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$479
• Net cashflow: $-610

Break-even live

Break-even rent $3,055

Max offer price $260,965

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-369	-5% $-490	+0% $-610	+5% $-731	+10% $-852
Rent	-10% $-791	-5% $-700	+0% $-610	+5% $-520	+10% $-430
Rate	-1.0pp $-434	-0.5pp $-521	base $-610	+0.5pp $-701	+1.0pp $-793

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $87,315
• Closing costs: $10,478
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 22 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
445 Elevon Pkwy Unit 819 Nevada, TX	2.0	2.0	1205	$1,372	$1.14	45d	1	0.07mi
312 Silent Pond Park Unit 312 Lavon, TX	3.0	2.5	2016	$2,900	$1.44	45d	1	0.22mi
445 Elevon Pkwy Lavon, TX	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1143	$2,029	$1.77	1d	25	0.44mi
209 Little Bridge Dr Lavon, TX	3.0	2.0	1913	$2,400	$1.25	1d	1	0.55mi
360 Elevon Pkwy Unit 2102 Lavon, TX	2.0	2.0	1205	$1,399	$1.16	1d	1	0.70mi
544 Oak Creek Dr Lavon, TX	4.0	2.0	1800	$2,150	$1.19	20d	1	0.71mi
455 Elevon Pkwy Lavon, TX	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1011	$1,988	$1.97	1d	79	0.76mi
613 Daybreak Ln Lavon, TX	3.0	2.5	1905	$2,300	$1.21	45d	1	0.81mi
358 Rockstream Dr Lavon, TX	4.0	3.0	2201	$2,395	$1.09	26d	1	0.85mi
600 Blooming Glade Lavon, TX	3.0	2.0	1405	$1,900	$1.35	8d	1	0.89mi
849 Good Cheer Ln Lavon, TX	3.0	2.0	1458	$2,200	$1.51	14d	1	0.90mi
906 Ramble Rd Lavon, TX	3.0	2.0	1458	$2,675	$1.83	4d	1	0.91mi
918 Ramble Rd Lavon, TX	3.0	2.0	1604	$1,900	$1.18	45d	1	0.93mi
860 Moonwake Dr Lavon, TX	4.0	2.5	2011	$2,800	$1.39	45d	1	0.93mi
269 Sunshine Ln Lavon, TX	4.0	3.0	2072	$2,700	$1.30	45d	1	0.98mi
579 White Water Dr Lavon, TX	3.0	2.0	1838	$2,000	$1.09	26d	1	1.11mi
151 Villas Dr Lavon, TX	3.0	1.0–3.0	871	$2,345	$2.69	0d	104	1.24mi
436 Grant Ln Lavon, TX	3.0	2.0	1755	$2,299	$1.31	6d	1	1.41mi
590 Arthur Dr Lavon, TX	3.0	2.0	1556	$1,850	$1.19	45d	1	1.41mi
476 Eisenhower Ln Lavon, TX	3.0	2.0	1544	$1,875	$1.21	22d	1	1.43mi
453 Harding Ln Lavon, TX	4.0	2.5	2155	$2,200	$1.02	45d	1	1.45mi
471 Harding Ln Lavon, TX	4.0	2.0	1645	$1,950	$1.19	45d	1	1.48mi

Listing history 21 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $287,990 Active 743 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $287,990 Active 740 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $287,990 Active 739 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $287,990 Active 738 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $287,990 Active 737 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $287,990 Active 735 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $287,990 Active 734 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $287,990 Active 731 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $287,990 Active 730 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $287,990 Active 729 DOM
11. 2026-06-04
    days on market $287,990 Active 726 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    days on market $287,990 Active 725 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $287,990 Active 724 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $287,990 Active 723 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $287,990 Active 722 DOM
16. 2026-01-08
    price $287,990 358-char remark

    Show marketing remark (358 chars)

    This gorgeous 3-bedroom, 2-bathroom, and 1,699-1,748 square foot home offers exceptional design with plenty of space for entertaining family and friends. The expansive 16'x22' family room is the real star of the show, and with plenty of structural options to choose from, you'll easily be able to personalize this layout to fit your specific wants and needs.

17. 2025-10-23
    price $286,990 358-char remark

    Show marketing remark (358 chars)

    This gorgeous 3-bedroom, 2-bathroom, and 1,699-1,748 square foot home offers exceptional design with plenty of space for entertaining family and friends. The expansive 16'x22' family room is the real star of the show, and with plenty of structural options to choose from, you'll easily be able to personalize this layout to fit your specific wants and needs.

18. 2025-09-05
    price $285,990 358-char remark

    Show marketing remark (358 chars)

    This gorgeous 3-bedroom, 2-bathroom, and 1,699-1,748 square foot home offers exceptional design with plenty of space for entertaining family and friends. The expansive 16'x22' family room is the real star of the show, and with plenty of structural options to choose from, you'll easily be able to personalize this layout to fit your specific wants and needs.

19. 2025-03-21
    price $300,990 358-char remark

    Show marketing remark (358 chars)

    This gorgeous 3-bedroom, 2-bathroom, and 1,699-1,748 square foot home offers exceptional design with plenty of space for entertaining family and friends. The expansive 16'x22' family room is the real star of the show, and with plenty of structural options to choose from, you'll easily be able to personalize this layout to fit your specific wants and needs.

20. 2024-08-14
    price $319,990 358-char remark

    Show marketing remark (358 chars)

    This gorgeous 3-bedroom, 2-bathroom, and 1,699-1,748 square foot home offers exceptional design with plenty of space for entertaining family and friends. The expansive 16'x22' family room is the real star of the show, and with plenty of structural options to choose from, you'll easily be able to personalize this layout to fit your specific wants and needs.

21. 2024-06-08
    listed $329,990 Active 358-char remark

    Show marketing remark (358 chars)

    This gorgeous 3-bedroom, 2-bathroom, and 1,699-1,748 square foot home offers exceptional design with plenty of space for entertaining family and friends. The expansive 16'x22' family room is the real star of the show, and with plenty of structural options to choose from, you'll easily be able to personalize this layout to fit your specific wants and needs.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $27,394
• − Mortgage interest: −$19,564
• − Property taxes: −$5,239
• − Insurance: −$1,746
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,192
• − Management: −$2,192
• − Depreciation: −$10,160
• Taxable loss: −$13,698
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$3,288
• After-tax cash flow: $-4,035/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Community ISD
• NCES district ID: 4814850
• Math proficiency: 30% ▼ -23.00%
• Reading proficiency: 38% ▼ -11.00%
• Median HH income: $71,841
• Composite: 31.58/100
• National rank: #5951
• State rank: #479 of 826 in TX

Livability — Lavon

• Score: 66/100
• State rank: #588
• US rank: #11230

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living B Crime B- Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Collin County · 1,159,394 people
• City population: 6,989
• Metro: Dallas-Fort Worth-Arlington, TX
• Population (ZIP): 6,989
• Household income: $132,101
• Rent vs Own: 9.1% rent · 90.9% own
• Severe rent burden: 41.0

Population outlook (Collin County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,210,074 people
• By 2030: 1,358,201 · +12.2%
• By 2040: 1,654,061 · +36.7%
• By 2050: 1,937,359 · +60.1%
• By 2075: 2,567,039 · +112.1%
• By 2100: 2,952,048 · +144.0%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.63)
• Race & ethnicity: White 55% Hispanic / Latino 24% Two or more races 15% Black 7% Asian 4% Native American 2% Pacific Islander 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 15% Puerto Rican 3%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 2% Serbian 2% Lithuanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 8% · Canada
• Languages at home: 84% English-only · Spanish 11% Other Indo-European 3% Arabic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Collin

• 2024 margin: R (+11.1) · D 43.1% · R 54.3% · Other 2.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: +14.4pp toward D · 2008: -25.6pp · 2024: -11.1pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+11.1 2020: R+4.3 2016: R+17.0 2012: R+31.6 2008: R+25.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -24.22%
• Current HPI: 221.0
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Dallas-Fort Worth-Arlington, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

-12.7% since first listed

6 events — show timeline

• 2026-01-08 Price Changed $287,990 Zillow
• 2025-10-23 Price Changed $286,990 Zillow
• 2025-09-05 Price Changed $285,990 Zillow
• 2025-03-21 Price Changed $300,990 Zillow
• 2024-08-14 Price Changed $319,990 Zillow
• 2024-06-08 Listed $329,990 Zillow