3016 S Gum St · Pine Bluff, AR 71603

$77,000

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,114 sqft · MultiFamily public records · 116 Days on market

Built 1968 8,276 sqft lot Est $62k · 23% over

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Why this score? — see what drove the C grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Livability +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +0.6/10.0
• ARV discount +0.0/15.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Multi-family units

County records classify this as Multi-Family (2-4 Unit). Listing-text estimate: 1 unit. estimate disagrees with records

Listing remarks

Great investment opportunity! This duplex features two units, each offering 2 bedrooms and 1 bathroom with central heat and air. Currently vacant, making it easy to lease immediately or customize for maximum rental income. Professional property management is available, perfect for investors or owner-occupants.

Key facts

• Built 1968
• Listed 116 days

Property features AI

Exterior

• Parking: Parking pads
• Utilities: Public sewer; Public water; Municipal electric (Entergy); Natural gas
• Home design: Single-family property
• Construction: 3-tab shingle roof; Slab foundation
• Exterior features: Brick and frame combination exterior; Level lot; Gravel road access

Interior

• Kitchen: Free-standing stove; Refrigerator stays
• Flooring: Vinyl; Tile
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central heating (natural gas); Central electric cooling
• Interior features: Vinyl and tile flooring; Formal living room

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath multifamily listed at $77k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $633 ($8k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $77k).
• Recommended offer: $70k (9.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 16.2% vs local median 8.9% in Pine Bluff — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 50/100 on livability (#483 in AR) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A; Watch: schools F, crime F, amenities F.
• Pine Bluff School District (urban): math 6% / reading 9% proficiency, ranked #236 of 238 in AR (top 99%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 85% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: 211 active listings in the ZIP; 2 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 62 units permitted in Jefferson County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 32% of the median local income ($53k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $532 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $2k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Jefferson County population projected at -33% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $22k cash investment doubles in ~4 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 116 days — a 9% lower offer ($70k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Current owner paid $50k; list at $77k implies a 54% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→19/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $70,070 (9.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 116 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 9% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1968 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new apartment / multifamily construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply (>2% of stock underway) typically softens rents 12–24 months out; light construction supports rent growth.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.82% ✓
• Cap rate: 16.16%
• Cash-on-cash: 35.24%
• DSCR: 2.57
• GRM: 4.6

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $62,384
• Comps found: 1

Show comp detail 1 sale within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
3012 And 3014 S Gum St	0.01mi	4/2.0	1,169 (+5%)	1mo	$65,000	$56	91

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 30.8%
• Equity multiple: 2.29×
• Total profit: $27,833
• Equity at exit: $11,481

10-year hold

• IRR: 38.0%
• Equity multiple: 4.53×
• Total profit: $76,098
• Equity at exit: $6,658

Cash invested: $21,560 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 92 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Arkansas: 92 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+14
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Only US state where non-payment is criminal. Strongly landlord-favorable; very few tenant protections.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 71603

• Home prices YoY: -26.0%
• Active inventory: 211
• Price-to-rent: 9.2×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,398 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$404
• Tax from tax record: −$35 /mo · $424/yr
• Insurance: −$32
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$294
• Net cashflow: $633

Break-even live

Break-even rent $597

Max offer price $77,000

Occupancy floor 50%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $677	-5% $655	+0% $633	+5% $611	+10% $590
Rent	-10% $523	-5% $578	+0% $633	+5% $688	+10% $744
Rate	-1.0pp $672	-0.5pp $653	base $633	+0.5pp $613	+1.0pp $593

2-unit breakdown (identical units grouped — click to expand)

Units	Beds	Baths	Est. rent
▸ 2× units	2	1	$1,398
Total (2 units)			$1,398

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $19,250
• Closing costs: $2,310
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 2 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
3109 Daffodil St Pine Bluff, AR	3.0	1.0	980	$825	$0.84	45d	1	0.52mi
1907 W 28th Ave Pine Bluff, AR	3.0	1.5	947	$1,150	$1.21	45d	1	0.59mi

Listing history 5 events

1. 2026-04-14
   status Under Contract
2. 2026-04-13
   price $77,000
3. 2025-12-19
   listed $80,000 New Listing
4. 2021-10-08
   soldstatus $50,000
5. 2006-10-17
   soldstatus $46,500

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast AR · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $424 · $35/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $493 · $41/mo
• Expected delta: +$68/yr (+$6/mo · 16.1%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 6/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥110°F today · 19 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 4/10 Moderate 22% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $16,776
• − Mortgage interest: −$4,313
• − Property taxes: −$424
• − Insurance: −$385
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,342
• − Management: −$1,342
• − Depreciation: −$2,240
• Taxable income: $6,729
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,615
• After-tax cash flow: $5,983/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Pine Bluff School District
• NCES district ID: 0500026
• Math proficiency: 6% ▼ -9.00%
• Reading proficiency: 9% ▼ -7.00%
• Median HH income: $32,374
• Composite: 5.86/100
• National rank: #10014
• State rank: #236 of 238 in AR

Livability — Pine Bluff

• Score: 50/100
• State rank: #483
• US rank: #25645

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment F Housing A Health & safety F User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Pine Bluff, AR
• County: Jefferson County · 29,578 people
• City population: 29,578
• Metro: Pine Bluff, AR
• Population (ZIP): 29,578
• Household income: $53,130
• Rent vs Own: 35.8% rent · 64.2% own
• Severe rent burden: 657.0

Population outlook (Jefferson County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 63,110 people
• By 2030: 58,519 · -7.3%
• By 2040: 49,740 · -21.2%
• By 2050: 42,331 · -32.9%
• By 2075: 29,591 · -53.1%
• By 2100: 21,047 · -66.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Majority Black (62%)
• Race & ethnicity: Black 62% White 33% Two or more races 2% Hispanic / Latino 2%
• Common ancestry: Italian 2% Slovak 1%
• Foreign-born: 2% · Canada
• Languages at home: 98% English-only · Spanish 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Jefferson

• 2024 margin: Strong D (+20.1) · D 59.2% · R 39.2% · Other 1.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: -6.2pp toward R · 2008: 26.3pp · 2024: 20.1pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+20.1 2020: D+21.7 2016: D+25.3 2012: D+29.0 2008: D+26.3

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -72.43%
• Current HPI: 206.5994
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Pine Bluff, AR
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.80%
• F500 in state: 10

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in AR)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Retail	1	$681B
▸Food / Agriculture	1	$53B
▸Retail / Energy	1	$22B
▸Transportation / Logistics	1	$12B
▸Energy	1	$4B

Price history

+65.6% since first listed

5 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-14 Pending — CARMLS
• 2026-04-13 Price Changed $77,000 CARMLS
• 2025-12-19 Listed $80,000 CARMLS
• 2021-10-08 Sold (Public Records) $50,000 Public Records
• 2006-10-17 Sold (Public Records) $46,500 Public Records

Property tax history

+3.5%/yr

Latest (2025): $424 · +8.5% YoY. Source: county tax records.